저자: Kevin · 외국인
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영상은 연준 피벗 기대와 2019년식 랠리 비교를 다룬다. 모건스탠리 마이크 윌슨이 2019년 유사 랠리를 언급했다고 인용하며, 인플레이션이 점진적으로 둔화되면 주식시장이 나이키 스우시형 회복을 반영할 수 있다고 주장. 금융·에너지·소비재 섹터를 주목 대상으로 제시하고, 쏘파이 등 금융주가 경기침체 회피 시 유리하다고 봄. 팔란티어 언급. 7/31 기준 CPI 전망(전월비 0.2%, 근원 연간 등) 및 고용지표 예상치도 소개.
다듬은 글
a shocking video for the Federal Reserve markets and how things are really building up on each other quick note though I'm extending the coupon code one day today only we're gonna end it tonight because I couldn't get back to all the bundle coupon requests that staff at meet kevin.com send us an email there if you'd like a bundle otherwise check out me kevin.com and we've got a coupon code expiring tonight prices will be going up tomorrow morning and I'll show you exactly how to build your wealth at's how I did it give you the exact blueprint for how to do that a lot of people getting into that because they see an opportunity coming up in real estate stocks and psychology of money and of course how to make more money with entrepreneurship or employment either direction featuring artificial intelligence so check those courses out link down below the price will be going up substantially tomorrow as we have a major price increase planned so use that coupon code before it expires tonight or email us at staff meet kevin.com well you won't believe what year Mike Wilson one of the biggest Wall Street Bears turned bull all has to say about this latest stock market rally that we're in and what year he Compares it to we've got to talk about that but we've also got to talk about big catalysts coming up I'm also feeling a little bit better which is great and I want to start with a note of psychology because in the program's psychology for example in this morning's course member live stream when we're looking at consumer discretionaries we're regularly analyzing hmm where could the next play be but for psychology of today's market I think one of the best ways to think of how does you know a company like Nicola go from 50 cents to 2.50 maybe it's a good thing maybe it's fundamental maybe it's a short squeeze maybe it's a combination of both and how do some of these smaller companies start taking off sometimes even at a greater or faster clip than companies with really strong fundamentals like how does a carvana burn its bondholders and go from your bankruptcy at you know a few dollars dollars per share to over 40 dollars per share 10xing well one of the ways that I like to think about this is stock market Jenga think about this 2022 starts and you kind of have pulled quite a few pieces out the tower is starting to wobble a little bit and then come about the summer of 2022 this thing's really starting to shake pieces are falling off the top and by December you have a complete Jenga collapse well in order for you to rebuild the stock market you can't only have your favorite stocks go up the stock market Jenga doesn't work that way instead you need pretty much everything to go up even the crappy companies and the reason it works that way is the more expensive the really good companies become the more people move across what they call the risk curve and they start allocating to some of these other smaller names and those can induce short squeezes in fact we'll probably make a video on some potentially High short interest companies especially since a lot of you have been asking for those but before we do that it's worth considering okay in that case even in a strongly built Jenga Tower if you remove a piece in other words one company like Yellow trucking goes bankrupt doesn't actually mean you're going to knock over the tower the tower Falls when it starts wobbling and you've had a lot of companies collapse that's when the tower Falls not necessarily collapse either but when Market fear at least sets up such an element that oh we think everyone's going to collapse much like what we had in 2022 this thought that we're gonna get Paul volcker inflation will never be transitory this isn't trashed we're back at the 1970s oh my gosh we're all screwed that ended up not being the case although that doesn't stop other YouTubers today from constantly making videos about how every banking collapse is basically the end of you but oh well I guess they can sit out the stock market and miss out so what does Morgan Stanley's White Mike Wilson suggest at least what year does he compare us to well it's none other than 2019.
take a look at this Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson is now suggesting we are in a 2019 style rally which is a rally that's backed by basically policy whether it's the Federal Reserve pausing their rate hikes at the end of 2018 uh and uh you know basically going back to QE which is kind of what we saw in 2019 and Mike Wilson is now suggesting hey we've got some Eerie similar Eerie similarities today uh just by looking at some retracements here it's been a little more aggressive now he's got about a 28 increase over here whereas we're at about a 36 percent over here but he actually suggests that this kind of rally can keep going and uh I find this very fascinating because one of the things that I mentioned at the start of 2022 was that the stock market likes thinking ahead the stock market history historically has pivoted in uh you know times when the Federal Reserve has had its emergency U-turn right we've talked about this analogy before where we talk about how the FED pivoted in February of 2009 or March of 2003 uh then we have uh December of 2018 and then of course March of 2020.
these were some pretty dramatic pivots from the Federal Reserve and we've previously shown that when the Federal Reserve takes these emergency u-turns that it did during these dates to bail out the market it's historically a really good time to invest in stocks and we made this comparison to this cycle and said that well look as soon as inflation starts coming down it's probably going to happen gradually and then we'll get a heads up that okay well if inflation keeps going that way then the Federal Reserve will pause and we'll get a U-turn from the Federal Reserve but it won't be as dramatic potentially as one of these time frames because inflation will probably gradually come down so the stock market could slowly price this in in the form of a Nike Swoosh recovery that's the foundation of how I came up with the Nike Swoosh thesis back at the end of last year it was that if inflation gradually comes down the stock market will gradually wake up to realizing that oh wow maybe inflation will end up proving to be transitory now a lot of people get offended when I say that they're like Kevin how could you say that have you been to a grocery store lately we understand that inflation has raised prices for a lot of things but we also realized that the rate of growth for those things has slowed dramatically in fact in the last inflation reports it's gone negative for food so we've started to actually see not just disinflation but deflation for a lot of food items that have run up so expensively now that doesn't mean they're less expensive than they used to be they're still more expensive but from a market point of view this is fantastic so what else does Mike Wilson suggest well there's some cool things here take a look at this so Mike Wilson he mentions that the next sectors that could be interesting to pay attention to are utilities energy and financials I don't profess to be a utilities buff so I want to look at the others energy I think is right now at least you could look at it as oil or renewable energy I'm not much of a an oil bull although if we have a recovering economy oil could do well unless production increases at a similar clip in that case you're just speculating on a commodity with China moving pretty slowly and hopes that China is going to stimulate more but so far ideas that no China won't stimulate more because that could take away some of their party power as it empowers corporations in China more which is something that China is apparently worried about this is a Goldman Sachs piece we addressed the other week I'm kind of injecting this as well anyway I I don't really want to bet on oil so I'd rather look at potentially cheap Renewables which just got a lot cheaper thanks to end phase but you know that could still be in a trough right now right we have not seen Euphoria in energy uh in the Solar sector at least right so keep that in the back of your mind what are two others potentially well financials look at what sofa did this morning Sofi absolutely exploded why did sofa explode so if I exploded because of a higher projected net income in the next quarter and for the fiscal year now that's interesting because they're doing a lot more personal loans they're doing personal loans at like 14.5 percent and I'll tell you there's actually a lot of appetite for those kinds of loans this is why we saw a PayPal be able to sell off its buy now pay later portfolio to KKR in Europe because there's a massive demand for higher yields and if the economy is not going to go into a recession then those higher yield loans could be less risky hear me out on that for a moment if somebody goes to you and says hey I'll pay you five percent on a government secured treasury bond that has no risk of default then you're kind of like Okay cool so my risk-free raise five percent or four percent whatever it is then you compare that to okay well what if I want more yield well then you have to take on risk okay so how about you take a whole buy now pay later portfolio that's yielding like 15 and you slice it up and you're like okay I just want a slice of that which gives me a slice of a thousand different people's Peloton bikes or whatever right even if 10 of them default you don't really care because you have a slice of of everyone you're not just having one person's default so you're somewhat secured because then a 15 returns like 13.5 percent of 10 default big deal that's still way better than five percent right so you have Pension funds institutions and a lot of money managers who are like let's buy up some of these riskier loans so what does so far I get to do well I don't know if Sofi does this I could read a little bit more into it and I probably will but my suspicion is that Sofi is basically refinancing People's Credit Card loans from like 23 down to 15 and then they're able to take those loans and sell those loans to these money managers and so far is taking basically a a fee in between now a lot of people are going to have heart palpitations when they say that because they're like it's so bad does it take fees no they're not taking fees from the consumer but they take fees when they sell the loan this is very normal I'm not going to go into institutional money management it's just the way you discount the loan or the way you sell the loan off what interest rate you sell alone for all of that is built in they make their money point is they're making more of that money because there's more appetite probably for those loans right now because the Market's going ah maybe we're not going into a recession which is actually probably really good for a company like PayPal a firm or sofa so financials I actually agree with Mike Wilson on financials can be a fantastic place to be right now I don't know I've been saying for a while I don't want to own financials going into a recession but now that it looks like we might not be going into a recession and you're looking at sure Yellow trucking laying off 30 000 people but is that really going to affect non-farm payrolls coming out this Friday well I don't know let's see this survey says 200 000 jobs expected for the non-farm payrolls ADP is expected to come in at 188 000 uh in two days on Wednesday so you got ADP on Wednesday you've got jobs on Friday so if you're looking to see what happens with jobs pay attention to those dates or look at the jolts numbers coming out tomorrow we're looking for a 9.6 million what for job openings what you really want is a little bit of a lower joltz number not too low you still want job openings so those Yellow trucking people who just lost their jobs can't get a new job although UPS doesn't have a lot of job openings right now we looked uh so joltz you want that to come in slightly low and then you want jobs to come and probably add estimate you don't want to be too hot although even if it does come in hot it's okay you don't want it to come in low really low on jobs would be bad because now you're knocking on that recessionary door again and financials will get punished again so solar and financials interesting space Mike Wilson does suggest there is another space that is fascinating right now and that other space is potentially consumer discretionaries however he also suggests that those consumer discretionaries could be at most risk although consumers are showing signs of optimism so I wrote over here for the consumer I was thinking well that's also good for financials like sofa in a firm but it's also potentially good for a Disney a Nazi and then I wrote palantir just because I wanted to mention palanters killing it remember they got a crazy robust bound sheet and a lot of people see them as like one of the strongest potential AI plays for software although Bloomberg intelligence doesn't think so Bloomberg intelligence just did a piece on them I was just looking at them this morning and Bloomberg intelligence did a piece on them and said that their uh commercial segment remains pressured mostly because companies are being a little bit slow to renew some of these contracts didn't stop them in their last earnings from rallying though they went from like 7 to 11 in their last earnings and now they're like 19.
it's crazy really really impressive so anyway uh there are a few things to really think about here of course we've got inflation data coming out which I'll talk about in just a moment but think about this for a moment in this world that we're in of stock market Jenga hopefully you use that coupon code link down below by the way great news coming on househack uh knock on wood I don't want to reveal everything yet but a certain three-letter organization seems to be very happy so I'm happy anyway uh so uh we'll leave that there then we're going to talk about the CPI data and projections for that in just a moment which is on Lauren's birthday but what I really want to hate on is this Jenga analogy and the Jenga analogy says first of all from a psychological point of view you should not be discouraged if not all of your stocks are green all of the freaking time I know there are a lot of people who are like dude Kevin how is how is you know so far up you know 20 or whatever and Tesla's only up 0.4 percent and go stock market Django it's totally okay it's totally okay for markets to spread their gains in fact a broadening rally will support the growth of plays with really really strong fundamentals and I will say sofi's fundamentals actually look better when you get away from a recession in fact all financials basically look better when you get away from a recession so this broadening rally is very very good so just because your stocks aren't up every single day that is okay it's okay to see the other players win because the more the other players win the more you can win I I know there are a lot of people that are like but but I mean there's only a certain amount of money that could be allocated to say not really be surprised what will end up happening is companies with poor fundamentals that rally will eventually report bad earnings that Capital will be removed from those companies and those stocks will fall and that Capital will be reallocated to good place and those can then again help the rest of the Jenga tower build so uh have that Faith now uh I've already reminded you about the coupon code linked down below we did a short extension on that uh sorry about that uh I was sick this weekend I couldn't help with the emails it's my bad like I think I had like the Norovirus or something disgusting I had like muscle cramps it was bad anyway so CPI projections for August 10th which is Lauren's birthday we're looking for a 0.2 on month over month 0.2 on core year over year 3.2 uh which is actually a little bit up from uh last month at three percent but that's usually okay because you're you're just putting in uh you know some energy volatility there as uh oil prices fluctuate so that's not a big deal we're more interested in that core number which is coming in expected to come in year over year at 4 0.7 so hopefully we can beat that that would be really cool if we could beat that and then as far as the federal reserve's terminal rate projections I always like looking at these too terminal rate projections the highest rate the market thinks the Federal Reserve is going to end up getting right now being priced at 5.38 that's basically where we sit right now that would be no more hikes right now so we'll pay attention to that a five-year break even last week was moving a little bit uh to the upside which isn't great because jpow tends to beat us up when that five-year Break Even takes off right now that five-year Break Even is flat at about 2.31 we'll pay attention to it so anyway this is all really actually fantastic and Mike Wilson is talking more about his bullishness and talking about how this is fed pause bullishness and these are some sectors to pay attention to Consumer discretionaries with some risk but financials no recession those those get interesting again and uh the moves you've seen so far could just be the beginning so it Bears some more financial analysis on that and we'll be doing some more of that so anyway thank you so much for watching we'll see in the next one if you like the video consider sharing it
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