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Markets are on edge. Sam Alman says there's an AI bubble and Palunteer, Nvidia, AMD have been selling off hard. It's the growth story though that's really under attack and nobody has confidence that the Fed is going to come out dovish. Most people are preparing for a hawkish Fed who simply is more concerned about inflation.
We got the FOMC meeting notes. The majority of the participants were still more concerned about inflation. only a couple of them acknowledging that there was a rising concern in a weakening jobs market. And so as we draw closer to Jackson Hole and the Fed's talk, the market continues to sell off. I'm going to take you into the Palunteer chart because some folks are just panic selling.
They bought the top, now they're panic selling the first dip. And I don't think even though there is profit taking, I don't believe that the AI story is over. Nor do I believe that the bullishness of 2025 has come to an end. I think that this year is going to continue to be strong. This is just reasonable profit taking in the month of August.
We talked about this at the beginning of the month that you should have a smaller position size and that you should be more careful about risk because we were going to see some flash sale moments. We've been seeing even successful earnings. We've been seeing that consistently all throughout this month.
And here's the other thing that we've been seeing consistently is that every single time something gets sold off, it gets quickly bought back up. The market is by no means broken down. And I think it's worth taking a minute to look at the Palunteer chart. People are getting too scared of Palunteer. And on the other hand, we've seen that Intel INTC has popped.
And in my personal opinion, people are getting too confident in INTC when INTC has not proven themselves against Nvidia, right? They haven't proven themselves to be competent in AI. Matter of fact, the stock has been largely down on its lows during the entire AI runup. And so, uh, the fact is that all INTC has really offered this market is a really good swing trading opportunity.
And I think that you want to be careful. It's paid to lock in the pop, to sell the rip on INTC and not bag hold this one. Every single time we've bought the dip on INTC, it's turned around and ripped and given us an opportunity to make some money. I'm going to give you guys the pullback or the potential next bounce zone and my overall view of the Palanteer chart and the INTC chart.
Let's briefly talk about the three stocks to buy in the month of August. Sound, bull, and serve. The markets have pulled back. I've gotten kicked out of all of them except for Serve because I had a very low stop-loss because I had a much lower entry point on Serve. It's been a position that I've been holding for a long time now.
Do I think that those three trades are over for the month of August? No. No, I don't. I think that that we are seeing the markets be very volatile and simply shaking people out of their positions. And I still believe that we're going to be ultimately moving towards a market that's going to go back risk on.
This is just profit taking and this is just hedging against what is going to be what is largely believed to be a hawkish Fed who will not pivot which I also believe he's going to come out and he's going to take the position of neutrality. He's going to kind of juggle both sides of the conversation the the weakening employment market and he's going to express concern about the uncertainty of tariffs and its impact on inflation.
And in addition to that you've got AI which is going to be pushing people out of their jobs. We've also seen that and we've got a tighter and more secure border which is going to impact employment in the United States. And so with all of that, you're going to have rising inflation and a slowing economy.
It's called stagflation. And what it really means going into 2026 is that there's just going to be some companies who are cashri who are going to survive it and get richer. And ultimately it means in 2026 that small cap and crypto is going to have the winter that a lot of people are telling you that has been cancelled.
The crypto winter hasn't been cancelled. On the point of crypto, I still believe that we're going to see a pump because I believe that even though the Fed is not giving us the commitment of cuts in 2025, I think we will get cuts in September. It just makes the most sense for him to take a little pressure off the markets and give them that bump up.
It's better for him to hedge. He raised the rates enough that he can afford to lower the rates a little bit and hedge himself against being accused as legacy is all he has at this point because he's really not going to be the future Fed. All he has right now is to protect his legacy and it makes more sense to give the market a little bit of cut in September to do that.
So, let's take a big step back. Let's talk about the fact that we're just seeing profit taking here in the month of August. The market is expensive. We're 22 times forward earnings. This is one of the most expensive markets that we've ever been in based on earnings. Uh the last time we were this high was back in the 1960s.
And so the fact is that we still are in a bullish market, but there's going to be these cracks of volatility which gave a spike to our VXX today because any single time any uncertainty rears its ugly head, JP pow, the markets are going to pounce and sell. That's what we're dealing with. But I think the markets will turn right around and buy it back up because the market overall is still bullish.
Let's touch base on Target real quick. They didn't do well. They got a new CEO, but he was from the existing team. Wall Street didn't like that and they would have preferred an outsider come in that might offer more change. Now, what these guys are doing wrong, I don't even think that they can fix at this point.
They used to have a good reputation back in 2006. It was called tar. Today it's just discount bins losing against better competitors like Walmart and Costco. And so they lost their flare. They've upset their customers. And the bottom line is their sales are in decline. And all they did was promote. And all they did was promote an insider which means that we get more of the same.
They did not do enough to change anyone's opinion. And as a result, the stock fell. So this is why we've not been holding large positions into earnings. There was a little bit of gain on target on the runup before earnings, but if you held your position through earnings, you didn't make money. It has not paid to hold through earnings this particular cycle.
Maybe it will in the next quarter, but right now it's been better to to cut these positions before earnings. So, what does Target need to do to succeed? They need to grow their e-commerce. They need to implement AI and they need to compete. This is something they don't have the capital to do as their uh profits are shrinking.
And so in my opinion, target is dead money right now. We'll ignore this one for a long time until it drops much lower and consider uh what the new CEO might do for the next round or runup before earnings where people will largely be closing their positions simply because they're taking profit on how much money they're going to make as this stock decays.
Let me know if you have a different opinion about Target, if you think this is a underdog that's worth holding. I don't think it is. Uh, so this is one that's been completely cut from my portfolio. All right, let's talk a little bit about Palunteer. This is one that's going to do very, very well, and people are panic selling it when they really don't even understand the cycle that it's gone through.
Now, I'm going to take you into the chart. I'm going to explain it to you guys a little bit. Uh, first off, it's gone into a parabolic move. This thing has run up from its 2022 lows. It's run up 3,000%. Okay, that's an incredible climb. Now, when it runs up like that, it isn't usually going to just drop like a rock and go all the way back down.
That's not really what's going to happen. This is just profit taking on an in an overcrowded stock, right? Which means that as soon as we see a little bit of buyers come back in, it's going to ramp back up. And you don't want to be the guy buying the top and selling the bottom. And then it turns back and goes back to your entry price.
and then you're upset with yourself. Let's take a quick peek at Palunteer and that'll give you some insight as to what you can watch for to perhaps make a decision from the technical point of view. Let's go check out that chart from its 2022 low of around $6. This thing has run up nearly 3,000% all the way up here to around $190.
I asked the question which stock was going to get to 200 first, Palunteer or Nvidia. Palanteer was making the move, but it fell short of $200. My money is currently on Nvidia getting to $200 uh first. But here's a couple things I want to point out to you. I want to show you that we do have a neckline of support at $130.
Now, I also see that we have support around 135 and 140. And you can see that we came back and we bounced off that this wick here on the bottom of this weekly candle. Yeah, I want to remind you that wicks express the emotion of the market and what this tells me is that there's still a lot of interested buyers in the Palunteer uh name.
Now, you can see that we had this similar moment where we ran all the way up to $120. We pulled back to this $66. We took off like a rocket ship. And a potential area where I would expect it to bounce pretty hard if we continue to break down would be here at this 130 level. I think this is going to be a very pivotal price point in the future.
You'll see a lot of buyers take interest on this for a secondary runup at 130. I would say that if you go into the momentum indicators, and this was a point that I made in my live session today that whenever you're above the zero line, you're in the hands of the bulls. There's no sell signals on the MACD or the RSI.
The RSI is above the 50 mark, showing that it's in the territory of the bulls. The bulls are controlling and dominating this price point. And if every time it pulled back, you sold. You would have missed out on huge runup on Palunteer. Now, it does look as if we're curling down and we very likely will cross beneath the MACD line and that would simply put Palunteer in the position of being a hold, right?
Means you wouldn't be adding to your long position. So, it would be on hold for a while and we would wait to see if it would cross up again. Uh, which could give everybody a higher exit from where it's at right now. So, the main point I want to make is that Palunteer is still a very very hot company with a lot of eyes on it and it has not printed nor is it close to printing a sell signal.
At most, it's getting close to printing a hold signal from the momentum perspective. And uh you know, you didn't want to be buying it when it was up at $190, when it was way outside and above its bowlinger bands. If you were looking at the charts at all, you should have known that that wasn't the spot to go long.
But if you're in this, I would say that this initial pullback is not necessarily the spot to panic sell. Now, let's talk about INTC for a moment because on the other hand, where people are too bearish on Palunteer. I think they're too bullish on Intel right now. Uh, all that Intel has offered the market is some swing trades.
Let's go look at that chart real quick because I think it'll put things into perspective there as well. So, this has been a great swing trade. Anytime that you have basically got into it beneath 20 and down to around $18 to $19, it's consistently given these really incredible pops. And I talked about this just the other day on my show in a live session right here at around $21.
I said, "Guys, we're getting ready to descend back into this spot that produces pops." And lo and behold, it was just a couple days later that this ripped. Now, I want you to understand about INTC what it would have to do for it to actually go bullish. And that is to basically get above this breakdown zone right here at around $36.
So otherwise, it's just making lower highs and lower lows. So technically, the trend is still stairstepping down, right? It is ugly and it's a bearish trend. And you want to remember that you want to trade the trend until the end because it's your friend. Now what we can be watching for is this consolidation zone which it's clearly been in.
It's been vacasillating basically between 18 on the low end and roughly 25 on the high end. And that's been a great repeatable trade. The other thing I want to show you is that we have a little bit of a diamond pattern. Diamond pattern is initially seen as a megaphone pattern where price action basically makes higher highs and lower lows during a period of time and then it begins to uh kind of tighten up.
And that's what we've seen recently where we didn't make a lower low this last time when we dipped. We made a higher low and we haven't made a higher high when we came up. We made a lower high. And this means that we're likely going to continue moving sideways for a while. Now, the nice thing that I like about these diamond patterns when they're at the bottom of a move is that they ultimately do break to the upside.
Okay? And do I think that INTC is getting ready to do that? No. I think it's going to pull back and it's going to offer another opportunity at $21. And I can't predict that this would be the very last opportunity at $21, but it might be. And the only way that INTC is going to have a beautiful bright future is if their management gets their act together and begins to show some follow-through.
They've they've been the kings of overpromising and underdeling. While on the opposite side of the AI story, you've got Nvidia, which has been doing a shock and awe overd deliverely campaign. It's why that stock is up, you know, huge in the last three years. And we're still moving sideways on Intel.
So Intel the overall macro trend for Intel is still bearish. The positive dynamic is that we have been consolidating at the lows. The government does see some value in providing them uh corporate welfare which does present them this opportunity of an edge in which they might be able to get their act together and actually grow their profits.
But it hasn't happened. So, pump your brakes on being too bullish on INTC. Not a suggestion for what you should buy, sell, or hold, but it's shown to be a good idea to take profit in the range in which we just hit. And it's proven to be a good idea to get back in when it pulls back to that lower support range, which at this point in time might be getting a little higher than it had before.
could be $21 this time versus 19 or 20 in previous uh cycles of this price action. So, I'd love to hear from you guys. Let me know which stocks you're going to be buying this week. I'm going to be going back and loading up on some of those positions that pulled back that I think are still going to have a big possibility for a move higher.
If we got a slightly dovish Fed, all the small caps and crypto would rip again. If we have a very hawkish Fed, I think they're going to pull back. So be mindful of that. Crypto will not do well if the markets interpret the Fed as being extra hawkish right now. And in the big picture view of the AI story, if the Fed is hawkish and the markets pull back, all that money when it gets redeployed is simply going to go back into big tech.
It's going to go back into companies like AMD and Palunteer because I don't think the markets have a better trade than the AI trade. Let me know what you guys think. One more thing in the stocks with Josh Discord, we traded together and had only wins today. I think a ton of money was left on the table because the charts were pretty easy.
Everything was flushing, but we were able to lock in a number of gains throughout the morning and we're going to do it again Friday. One member uh shouted out that he has only been in the Discord for two months and he has grown his account by 3,000%. Also in the GOAT alerts channel, we had our fifth GOAT alert.
We've had no losers in this recent run of five trades. So, keep your eye out for the next Goat Alert. If you don't know what I'm talking about, I'm talking about the Stocks with Josh Pro Trading community. You can join that by heading over to the website, which is the same name as the show. You just simply search www.stocksswithjosh.com and come check it out.
Peace and blessings. Hit that like and that subscribe and I'll see you in the next video.
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