저자: Josh · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적은 매출·이익 모두 강했으나 매출 성장 모멘텀 둔화와 블랙웰 지연으로 주가가 하락. 발언자는 중간 전환 후 112~109달러 구간 분할 매수 계획을 제시하며, 단기 추가 하락 가능성과 함께 1차 매수 112달러, 역헤드앤숄더 돌파 시 약 167달러 가능성을 언급. 빅테크 약세와 실업률·버핏지표·수익률곡선 등 경기 경계 신호도 강조.
다듬은 글
are you supposed to be bullish right now are you supposed to be bearish it was nvidia's earnings that was going to be the Catalyst that took the markets higher in 2024 and they absolutely came out and crushed it with their earnings they had a year-over-year revenue beat of 122% quarter over quarter they were up 15% and yet before we even got to the news institutional money began to sell out of their position we got the news and the stock dumped it went down near 8 to 9% after hours it recovered today but towards the end of the day it turned South again now today I'm going to go over a little bit of what happened with nvidia's earnings and what may be the cause of that selloff but more important than that we played it perfectly on the stocks with Josh Discord I notified everybody when I had raised my stoploss and I notified everybody when I was out of my shares and out of my options locking in the absolute majority of the profit well before earnings came now I got some criticism on my YouTube page yesterday that I had been bullish Monday and Tuesday but then on Wednesday I turned bearish well first of all we're going to look at both sides of the case we've got to be looking at both sides of the case the bull case and the bear case and I'm going to review those with you guys again today so you can have a better handle on what I'm expecting but I also want to be clear about Nvidia Nvidia was bullish on Monday Nvidia was bullish on Tuesday and Nvidia was bullish Wednesday morning after it continued to bounce off of 124 and push up against 131 but at some point you've either got to raise your stop loss or you have to enter a hedge those were my two decisions I either was going to load up on puts or I was going to raise my stop loss and I decided to lower my risk scenario by simply raising my stop loss and accepting the fact that I got kicked out you guys got to remember when this thing was $117 I saw people taking profit left and right I didn't I held and told everybody we would get to 131 which we did but there came a point after 124 had been hit too many times that it was time for me to lock in the gains that I had made now what is this video about are we talking about the past are we talking about the present or the future well we're going to talk about the present and we're going to talk about the future and I'm going to let you know where I think Nvidia is going to go where is the next load up Zone according to my analysis of the charts I crushed it on Nvidia play here this last month and I want to do it again there's no guarantee that I will do it again but I'm going to tell you my plan because I've already spent time on the charts and I'm going to tell you where I'm going to buy and what I think will happen with envidia in the coming days this is the stocks with Josh show thank you for joining me today thank you for hitting the like hit the like And subscribe if you need help trading these choppy markets I'm want to tell you guys we're going to start the 3K to 10K challenge in the chart goat University stocks with Josh Discord and what this is going to be about it's about making money but more importantly it's about my four disciplines I'm going to practice and show you guys using a stoploss trading the trend controlling position size which is going to be one of the biggest factors and here's my concern that people are going to come along and say well I'm going to follow Joshua's trades but I'm not going to follow his game plan nor his disciplines and I had that in the Discord this last week on a play that I entered I spent $80 on the play and I bought two call options that didn't take off it was a starter position somebody else bought $660,000 worth so I bought $100 they bought $660,000 I lost a little bit of money they lost a fortune now I don't mean to put anybody on blast but I'm talking about this 3K to 10K Challenge and the biggest part of the challenge is if you have lost money this week and Nvidia was not a huge win for you then you've got to reexamine what you're doing and here's an opportunity to start over to reset and to employ trade disciplines that have been working for me and helping me be a consistent winner on Wall Street and you can follow along while I explain them in live trades guys trades that I'm going to be posting in the Discord it's going to be for all tiers uh but there might be more education in the higher tiers there will be more education in the higher tiers if you want to be part of that I'm going to leave a link in the top pin comment for the stocks with Josh Discord I also want to remind you that I'm dropping micro classes there to help you learn how to chart so you can have a better strategy as well as you can trade along me and the crown Traders uh spy Lord had a 116% win on the Spy today on shorting it near the afternoon and that was a beautiful win those are the types of winds that we're getting over there and so if you're having trouble trading these choppy markets come over there and check it out so in my last video I recapped three bearish indicators that everybody needed to be paying attention to and this is for the Bears because we need to be keeping an eye on where are we at in these markets right now well I'm just going to recap first indicator Warren Buffett bearish indicator where the total value of all stocks is right now 22% above the GDP this simply is an imbalance and we are higher now than we were when the markets fell apart in 2021 and so we have a lot of reason to be concerned does it mean that crash tomorrow no it doesn't but you need to be aware of it and it doesn't mean that I've gone from being bullish to bearish I'm wanting you to have a big picture of view the second one is the inverted yield curve that you've been hearing about really for the last two years it's finally uninverted what does that mean it means that recession is much closer after it completely uninverted that's when you are at recession's door right and it's knocking and so you guys need to be aware of that but the markets can still climb and so you need to have a strategy you don't want to load up on puts beforehand because if this Market goes up for another 30 days you'll find yourself panicking and selling and then getting back into calls only to have the market reverse and sell those so we've got to have a big picture view and a micro view a macro and a micro view the third signal was the son rle rule which basically says when unemployment spikes by .5% in 1 month over the 12-month average it means that 100% of the time when that has happened that the next thing the Market's going to do in the next 12 months is go into a recession so we can't time the market the reason why I shared those three bearish indicators yesterday is one I was out of my Nvidia position because I was forced to sell because of weakness that was already a bad sign because I've been saying for a long time that in was the big Catalyst that could push the markets higher and when that fell apart well then it was time to look more carefully at the bearish narrative now I will tell you that right now a lot of big tech stocks uh were pointing down going into close and I think the market does have some room down and we might just continue down until we get halfway between now and that first fed cut the markets might recover a little bit and rally on the rate cut why would the markets rally on the rate cut well the market markets would be believing that the FED is actually going to produce a soft Landing that he's being responsive they'll give him the benefit of the doubt and they'll wait for data to come out in Q3 as well as the unemployment data which will become more important as each day goes because if unemployment continues to uh go down right and inflation goes down well then everybody's going to be cheering the FED one question you might ask is has a Fed ever produced a soft Landing well yes in the last 100 years years we've had three one in 1965 1984 and 1995 they're not really common but someone might say that we're well past due for one and so people have been comparing the current market a lot to the 70s and 80s it's very possible that the FED could produce a soft Landing the market might give him the benefit of the doubt when he gives that first cut the market could interpret that as bullish and go back on a rally looking at other factors however it's going to be contingent on data that we get in September and October that's going to tell us that maybe he didn't act quick enough or didn't cut deep enough and that's where your Panic selling could occur so I will tell you that you need to have a plan on big Tech because big Tech has all hit all-time highs and we do have some pretty bearish indicators going on right now mostly I expect the markets to uh continue to move down this week and largely sideways the closer we get get to that fed cut all right let's talk a little bit more about Nvidia today if you look at the heat map this morning Nvidia stuck out when most things were turning green Nvidia was bright red and of course it ended the day bright red not a good direction on Nvidia but here's the bottom line Nvidia did very well and I'm G to make a case for you as to why I'm going to buy Nvidia when it pulls back to a level I'm going to show you in the chart so I'm going to give you my buy zones I've already put my limit orders in and I'm going to make a case for you as to why I I want to be an Nvidia owner and why I want to make sure that I catch the next potential bottom for NVIDIA because one these guys are right now in A League of Their Own on Wall Street they are the top performing big Tech big market cap company in the world these guys crushed earnings as I said they beat on Revenue they were up 122% year over a year 15% quarter over quarter their data center revenue is big part of that it jumped gross profits were $22 billion and gross margin was 75% net profit was 16.7 billion which was up 177% year-over-year and up 12% quarter over quarter those are the type of earnings that companies dream of when you compare nidia's profit margins to its peers that's why I say that it's in a league of its own so these guys have a net profit of 57% and the next closest company to have that typee of profit level would be Microsoft but far less at 34% Google under 30 at 28% Apple's net margin which is supposed to be the world class largest market cap best run company in the world with a net margin of 25% so the bottom line is that these guys crushed it and their performance is incredible but there were a couple problems I'm going to go over that with you guys here uh and then you've got Tesla I got to shout them out they're under 20% somewhere between 17 to 19% net margin you can only imagine what Elon would do if he could get up into that higher andchel on of net profits what he could accomplish with his company we've got great leadership of Nvidia and these guys are going to do great things with all that money and the icing on the cake was without a doubt the fact that they were going to do a 50 billion share buyback and you guys know that's the big news right now and I think that some of you are under estimating why that's so important and how it could cause the price of the stock which I did mention in yesterday's video had a very high valuation and could be interpreted as too expensive but I want to kind of compare it to Apple right now which also has had declining sales for the last couple years but the stock price has reached all-time highs and it's even peaked here in the last couple months we've hit all-time highs how is that possible well I noticed something in the charts you guys remember when uh Apple was a buy it came up off of its lows around 165 and went 170 180 190 and 200 but momentum was really slowing down but as soon as it crossed over 200 momentum went through the roof and it really began to push up and they also buy shares right and they buy them at the right moment in time and so we could easily see Nvidia recover on low momentum and when we get back towards the top Nvidia could strategically pump up the share price by how they approached this buyback and so it's a big deal now what was the problem with the earnings That Wall Street said they didn't like well there was the slowing of momentum of growth and so even though it was their most profitable quarter the fact is that the momentum of increase was diminishing not increasing and so that is what made the big difference and so we don't know at that point if the momentum is on decline whether it will Spike up again or whether it will continue to decline and if it's going to continue to decline well then some of that forward PE has got to be taken off the table and so that's one of the problems with the stock right now but it's going to be quarter by quarter and largely as we get closer to the bottom of the range I believe that Wall Street wants to be in Nvidia new investors want to be in the best fastest most exciting growth stock in the world and a stock that's also being supported by the company itself that's buying the shares people are going to want to be in it so perhaps we'll see the same thing that we saw with apple I don't know I but I'm going to give you guys the low that I'm looking to buy back into Nvidia today was the delay of their Blackwell system and I know that there are some analysts that said that that wasn't a big part of the problem but it was the delay in that system has absolutely affected their revenue and when it begins to go online which has largely been uh pushed back to Q4 but when those sales really ramp up in Q4 then we're going to see potentially the momentum of Revenue begin to pick back up and again you want to remember wall Street's not going to wait until December to buy they're going to wait for the dip they're going to get back in and get prepared for that good news in Q3 and Q4 at the meantime I think it's going down and I'm going to to show you in the charts where my buy orders are so let's go check that out all right so in the charts it's very clear that Nvidia was consolidating and pushing up against resistance it was bullish from last Thursday Friday Monday Tuesday and Wednesday it was bullish until mid Wednesday price began to collapse giving us the indication that we were going down and not up this morning was a confirmation of that there was a continuation back to the downside rather than volume causing a reversal and a move back above these highs we continue to the downside so at this point I would say that we have a triple top going we have a bullish descending Channel at hand the blue line is the 50 SMA which has been broken which was a confirmation of a continued downturn and right now I believe that we will likely continue in this downturn until we come back and find support on my channel right and I think that that's largely going to be between 112 and 109 and I've already set up my limit orders in this range and so I don't have a crystal ball I have no guarantee that we will pull back that far but this is where I will take large risk and enter into a swing trade again if we remain going choppy I'm going to leave it alone if it comes down and hits my targets well then I'm going to buy and own it and I will still be in Risk because there's always the fear that it could go lower and there's plent of people that are saying they'll buy at 80 my target is 112 to 109 you know last time my targets were 96 and 94 we went as low as 90 and so yes we could actually break beneath this channel we could go lower than uh 109 we could actually go 103 to 106 but I'm going to be taking positions my first position is going to be at 112 and it's going to be additional positions beneath that until I buy up this Zone with the anticipation that we will recover cover back over it and begin to move back up now the other thing that I want to show you guys is that we do have an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern on this chart potentially forming and if we come back and hit this Zone and we remain within our Channel then we're in a very bullish stance and again this massive distance that you see here from the neckline to the top of the head would be the expected move if we were to break Above This Channel and so let's take a look at what that would be so if we did get a breakout of this channel a breakout above this one 28 level which is now where the neckline is going to end up being you're looking at it being around $167 which I think is very very possible I want to remind you guys that I will use a stop loss I will notify people in the stocks with Josh Discord when I place it after I'm in my full position I am telling you guys in advance that I'm still bullish on Nvidia I got out of it correctly yesterday before the crash I'm not in it right now except for my long-term portfolio I've got shares there that I've been buying and I'm not going to sell until I retire but in my swing account I'm bullish but I'm waiting for it to come back to the levels I gave you today you've gotten my trade plan in advance hit that like And subscribe and you can find out how it all turns out I'm expecting it to go well but again I don't have a crystal ball I don't know what tomorrow's going to bring but I think Nvidia is going to remain an important company and I believe that the other two companies that I have a high interest in three other companies Amazon meta and Tesla but I'm waiting for the right prices because the market did confirm today getting rejected at a bunch of levels that had just been support okay so these levels had just been support we fell beneath them we moved back up to them we got rejected we moved down that's a confirmation that we got a little bit more pain ahead of us in big Tech got to keep an eye on iwm and TNA small cap plays because they did pretty well today they weren't hurting the way that some of other big tech companies were were hurting today so I'm going to be talking more about those in the days to come as well appreciate you joining me get prepared for the 3K to 10K challenge in the stocks with Josh Discord I'll see you guys over there peace and blessings like And subscribe take care talk to you later
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