저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 미국이 이미 재고 침체에 들어섰으나 2008년 같은 금융위기는 아니며, 2023년 이후 회복과 기술혁신 붐을 기대한다고 주장. 경기·금리 전망: 인플레이션 완화 후 금리가 내려가면 주식시장에 유리하다는 입장. 2022년 중반 이미 재고 침체가 시작됐다고 봄. 1920년대 고인플레 후 호황기(Roaring Twenties) 사례를 들어 낙관. 혁신 플랫폼: 동시에 진행 중인 5개 혁신으로 DNA 시퀀싱(멀티오믹스), 로보틱스, 에너지 저장, 인공지능, 챗GPT를 제시. 유전체 비용이 27억 달러에서 약 500달러로 하락했고 100~200달러 가능성도 언급. 테슬라: 로보틱스·AI·에너지 저장 3개 혁신에 걸쳐 있어 긍정적. 4분기 인도량은 약 42만 대 전망(애널리스트 추정 42만~43만), 3분기 기록 343,830대 상회 가능. 중국 가격 인하와 상하이 공장 가동 중단, 미국 7,500달러 할인 등 재고 소진 노력 언급. 2023년 인도량 180만~190만 대(2022년 약 130만 대 대비 약 40% 증가) 전망. 주가는 인도 발표와 실적 발표 사이 강세 경향. 리스크/조건: 인플레이션, 고금리, 중국 생산 차질, 수요 둔화 우려. 2023년 실적 추정 신뢰가 확인되어야 주가 반등 근거가 됨. 영상은 2023년 전망이 아직 이르다고 결론. 출연자 전망: 테슬라 단기 주가 상승 기대(2023년 초), 인플레 완화 시 주식시장 강세 전망.
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what do you think Kathy Wood a known Tesla bull has to say about Tesla stock most analysts are expecting a sharp incline in Tesla stock price in the stock market at the beginning of 2023. you definitely would not want to miss this truth wins out when interest rates come down following inflation said Kathy Wood Rising fed rates are pointed out by many as the reason for falling stock prices in the stock market as other investors worried the U.S could face a recession by 2023 Arc Investment Management founder Kathy Wood thinks one already has hit and that it could be over in 2023 while many economists and strategists have been resisting the notion that we are in a recession and anticipate that the U.S may enter one next year we actually think will be coming out of it in 2023 said wood in late June Kathy Wood warned that the U.S is already in a recession Arc invest CEO Kathy Wood admitted during an interview with CNB see that she had underestimated the severity of inflation and proceeded to claim that the U.S economy is likely already in a recession would blame supply chain disruptions and geopolitical factors like the war in Ukraine for exacerbating inflationary pressures beyond what she had anticipated she also said that a recession driven in part by mismanaged inventories had already begun in mid-2022 Wood said that the U.S is already in a pretty significant inventory recession but that it will not be anything like the systemic recession and financial crisis in 2008-2009 she explained that it would be more of a garden variety I think that what we saw in the aftermath of covid will be repeated during but not just for a one-year period for the next five to ten years said wood she then laid out a timeline for Innovation stating that the U.S is now in a period like no other in history would explain that this is from data put together by Arc invests chief futurist Brett Winton after Consulting academics and academic research these were the true disruptive Innovations throughout history wood pointed out that there's only one other time before today that the U.S has seen multiple Innovation platforms evolve at the same time according to Kathy Wood it was during the early 1900s when the telephone electricity and the automobile transformed the world wood took it a bit further and said that the U.S is now in a period like it was back then at the time there was a pandemic the Spanish flu and World War One those are arguably similar to what we have experienced in the past year with the global covid-19 pandemic as well as the Russia Ukraine war however those problems were notably much worse than our problems today still even during those tough times Innovation took off and the U.S ended up with inflation peaking at 24 percent in June of 1920 and dropping within one year to negative 15 percent in June of of 1921 having been through a very tough period we ended up in what was called back then the Roaring Twenties it was a great time for the stock market it was a great time for Investments of all kinds because inflation and interest rates were coming down said would would then continue to say that today there are five Innovation platforms evolving at the same time in the U.S this has never happened in history and the seeds for all of them were planted during the 20 years that ended in the tech and Telecom bubble the Tekken Telecom bubble is the first time a lot of investors heard this concept of exponential growth and they bought into the dream but the problem was back then the Technologies weren't ready and if they weren't anywhere near ready the costs were way too high shared wood wood further explained that we didn't get the cloud until 2006 with AWS and that we didn't get the big breakthroughs in artificial intelligence with deep learning until 2012.
in terms of DNA sequencing when the first whole Human Genome was sequenced one person's genome back in 2003 it had taken 2.7 billion dollars and 13 years of computing power to sequence that one genome even if the cost had collapsed the next year by 75 percent it would still have been too expensive in light of that we have gone from 2.7 billion dollars for one person's genome back then to five hundred dollars today and a few hours of computing power in fact two companies Illumina and Altima claim that it is quite possible for it to be 100 or 200 by next year so we believe we are ready for prime time now the Technologies are ready and the costs are low enough that's critical says wood now what are these platforms that Kathy Woods that are evolving at the same time today first is DNA sequencing which is now called multi-mix sequencing since it is no longer solely focused on DNA sequencing but now includes RNA proteins and methylation it's very complicated but it's really exciting we're going to be curing disease thanks to these breakthroughs and in fact we've already had one a very important breakthrough just within the last week said wood another Innovation would refer to as robotics according to her industrial robot costs are dropping precipitously we have a labor shortage Innovation solves problems the demand for robots is skyrocketing right now wood said energy storage is yet another Innovation that Kathy Wood pointed to according to her consumer preferences shifting to Innovation wood said that it is not just in response to the Russia Ukraine war which caused oil prices to go up but also because these are now better cars that are more environmentally friendly another is artificial intelligence the breakthroughs in AI today I have to tell you are mind-blowing even to us now we're trying to look as far into the future as we can and we are seeing breakthroughs that we expected in five or ten years happening within six months once in one year now said wood the last evolving Innovation that Kathy Wood talked about is the chat GPT a computer program launched by openai in November 2022 and is built on top of openai's GPT 3.5 family of large language models and is fine-tuned with both supervised and reinforcement learning techniques among the five simultaneously evolving Innovations today that Kathy Wood talked about Tesla encompasses three of them robotics Ai and energy storage because of this many are optimistic about the company's future Tesla is expected to announce record quarterly deliveries in early January but that may not be enough to satisfy investors as the electric vehicle leader grapples with inflation Rising interest rates crimped production in China and concerns about softening demand in an effort to clear inventory Tesla offered a rare 7 500 discount to customers in the United States who took delivery of a new model 3 or model y at the end of the year along with 10 000 miles of free supercharging the inflation reduction act or IRA will restore up to 7 500 in federal tax credits for certain EVS starting January 1st deliveries are one of the most closely watched metrics by investors eager to see if Tesla can maintain its rapid growth Global fourth quarter deliveries could reach 420 760 Vehicles according to 16 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg that estimate which doesn't include some of the more recent analyst projections exceeds the record 343 830 cars delivered in the third quarter Tesla is the world's dominant seller of electric vehicles and is well positioned to take advantage of some of the Ira's tax credits for battery cell manufacturing and locally assembled EVS but in order to meet its goal to grow deliveries by 50 annually over several years an objective Tesla warned it would fall just short of in 2022 Tesla will likely make compromises when it comes to gross margins Tesla has cut prices across its lineup in China and scheduled downtime at its plant in Shanghai still Wall Street is projecting just under 420 000 units for the last quarter of 2022 according to 24 large brokers in the past few weeks delivery estimates have been coming down fourth quarter estimates peaked at about 450 000 units in the summer coming into December the fourth quarter consensus estimate was roughly 430 000 units according to factset a financial data company that lists more than 40 analysts that cover Tesla's stock a number around 420 000 should be good enough for investors when delivery results top expectations Tesla shares typically perform well in the space between delivery results and when full quarterly results are reported a few weeks later moreover analysts expect Tesla deliveries to grow about 40 percent in 2023 hitting 1.8 million to 1.9 9 million cars up from roughly 1.3 million in 2022 meeting 2023 delivery estimates will go a long way to convincing investors the 2023 earnings estimate is sound and that Tesla stock might have sold off a little too much this past year for now it's way too early to tell 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