저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프-이란 협상은 불확실하지만 협상 재개 신호가 늘고 있어 긍정적으로 본다. 채권 금리 급등은 과거 충격 사례처럼 무언가 깨질 수 있으나 주식은 장기적으로 버틸 수 있다. 이란 리스크가 해소되면 증시는 현재 고점보다 더 오를 수 있다.
다듬은 글
As if on schedule, Donald Trump officially speaks to reporters by phone , reassuring them that negotiations on the Iran deal are ongoing. Although on Friday evening, after the market closed, he told everyone that the deal was canceled. Everything is finished. Of course, you know, futures open in about 6 hours, and nobody wants " Black Monday" in the stock market.
So we need to smooth over the edges with a few phone calls to journalists during these 6 hours. But anyway, let's get to what's happening to get you ready for Sunday so you can enjoy the weekend in peace. We will also talk about the bond market turmoil and fears of liquidation. And do you know, has there ever been a case in history when rising bond yields led to a good outcome?
We'll figure this out because usually something goes wrong. Let's talk about that, but first let's deal with this Axios article. So, after rejecting Iran's offer, Trump tells Axios that he expects talks this week. Remember, the UN General Assembly meeting doesn't technically end until Monday evening.
And even after that, it is entirely possible that the mediators will remain in the New York area and continue the discussions. But the event itself ends tomorrow. So it's still ongoing. Many people think: "Ah, the UN is everything." You know, Xi Jinping also attracted a lot of attention last week. You may not have noticed, but Xi Jinping didn't actually go to the UN General Assembly.
It seemed like a kind of disrespect for the meeting. Like, "What? You're here. You're so close. You have your own Boeing 747. You can jump in. It's not that hard. And you're not going to the UN." You know, that's a different topic. People have the impression that the UN exists only for the US and the West.
And that's why sometimes such ignoring happens. But , no matter what. Axios reports that they spoke on the phone with Donald Trump this morning, and that Trump expects negotiators to have more talks with Iran this week as Qatar and other regional mediators try to restart talks . The parties were far apart on key issues.
What was really annoying was when you actually looked at that "distance." This refers to the previous refusal, where we talked about Iran's demands: they want sanctions lifted, frozen funds returned, and the blockade lifted. We've already discussed this. So there was no news about where their positions diverged.
But there is a little hint from Donald Trump. Donald Trump says: " I expect more talks with Iran this week." They wanted or want to make a deal, but it's not the deal I want to make." This is interesting because it shows that Trump is clearly eager to make a deal. This is obvious. We already expect this, because if Trump doesn't make a deal with Iran before the election, the Republicans will probably lose, and everyone will blame Trump.
And if too many Democrats win, you get a supermajority that can even override a presidential veto. This would effectively strip Trump of all power, and that's the last thing he wants. So the last thing he wants is for the war to escalate by then. Next: we expect that when Trump says this next year, it's actually a good sign.
Furthermore, if Trump doesn't make a deal , we expect the economy to collapse, which would be bad. So, there are many reasons to make a deal. But in any case, he says, “This is something we could have agreed to a year ago. They outdid themselves ." This is actually very interesting, because Trump is saying, "Hey, that was a pretty good basis for a deal a year ago, but now we need a little more." Because now you are suffering from our sea and air blockade, sanctions against airports and fuel facilities for Iranian aircraft.
The UAE has canceled flights, other countries or companies are under threat of sanctions if they support Iranian flights. Consequently, Iranian air traffic has fallen sharply. Plus, there are border problems with countries like Afghanistan and Pakistan, which is crazy, because Afghanistan is ruled by the Taliban, but even they say, “I don’t know, man.
Will we let you cross the border? "Maybe we need more bribes because we risk getting sanctioned." Of course, I'm simplifying, but that's roughly how it all happens. We covered it and it's just incredible. So Donald Trump is essentially saying, “Yeah, you know, this is actually a pretty good deal, looking at it from last year’s perspective.
But now we need a little more compensation. It's almost like you imagine someone in Florida trying to sell a house, and we were just in Florida. Well, a member of my team went to Florida. By the way, great job with what we learned on site in Florida. I really need to make a separate video about this.
But there are parts of Florida that really have problems with housing prices. But it’s like someone listing a house for sale for $500,000 and you offer $400,000 and the seller says, “100k less? But you left. "This is fraud." A year later, the salesperson asks for 399 and says, " Hey, dude, is your offer of 400 still valid?" And you say, “No, man.
Now 350. Or 400, you know." Florida has some problems. This is a built-up area , and when you invest in real estate, you can do when checking out real estate: if you're buying real estate, choosing cities where you can get building permits is a nightmare. And if you try to get permission and are denied, you should send them a thank you letter.
You shouldn't get angry and grab the bat. You should say, "Oh my God, thank you for making housing inaccessible to everyone else." Because it only increases my capital. This is, of course, a thief's way , but for an investor, it's hedging, right? That's why you can actually find affordable housing in places where they allow building.
Imagine . If you increase supply, prices fall. No. It's so hard for people to realize this. They say, “Oh no. " Developers in New York are just greedy. " No. You don't let us build more than four units vertically in Brooklyn without penalty. So why do we need to build more units? This is just madness.
Sorry. So my point is that from a negotiation perspective, I actually see it as a positive. I know I just got off topic with this real estate thing, but I think it's a sign that if a developer or investor says, "Yeah, okay, I'll pay you 350 now." This is a sign that you are not saying, “Go to hell. "I will never have anything to do with you again." It's just a sign that, "Hey, now I need a little more." This doesn't mean "go to hell." And that's exactly the message Donald Trump is trying to convey here.
Mostly to hint, "Hey, we can still make a deal." Another interesting point about Iran: this morning we learned that there was talk about Iran, and this is, you know, news from the president of Iran that Iran is willing to allow UN weapons inspectors from the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, to come back into the country for formal talks.
So Donald Trump is softening the position to some extent, and of course, it's a soft taco, okay? We're not choosing a corn taco today. We're going for the wheat taco, okay? White wheat taco. This is not a tautology, because it is whole grain, it would be brown. The point is that it is soft. I have some kind of problem with proteins.
I think it's either autism or some other problem. But in any case, the IAEA plays a crucial role here, because now they are responding to the president of Iran, saying, “Hey, you know, if you don’t mind our inspections, we can deploy them pretty quickly. That means there won't be a big delay . We will board the first authorized Iranian flight tomorrow and arrive." So, that's good, because now the head of Iran is saying, "Yeah, you know, we're going to open up again." And the IAEA replies: “ We will go as deep as you want.
We are ready." All of this suggests that the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. I think the general sentiment of the market and people is very negative about this because we've seen a lot of deals fall apart , but I'm seeing more and more pieces of the puzzle coming together, whereas before they were very scattered, and it seemed like this shell of a deal was going to hold.
Yes, of course. This is starting to look better. There was also news or rumors on X this morning that the Iranians had captured a US underwater UAV, and they have some footage with loud annoying music about how they captured it. CENTCOM, and they've done this before. CENTCOM issued a statement: “No, that is a complete lie.
We control all our drones. The Iranians are clearly in despair. In short". I don't fully believe CENTCOM when they say they're not doing something, because they're very good at choosing their words. Like in May, when we started escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz at night to export oil, they said, “We are not providing security in the region at all.
"We are not accompanying anyone." And two months later they're like, "Guys, we're so proud. We have transported over a billion barrels of oil from the Middle East thanks to our ship security and insurance.” So, you know, you have to treat this... I don't know. I think sometimes the older you get, the more disappointed you become .
But then, you know, more and more often there is a feeling: “Ah, you see? See? We were right to be disappointed." Anyway, this is about the drone. Next is the situation with the IAEA. There 's also this Axios talk about Donald Trump, which I think is quite relevant. Donald Trump says the US military is facilitating the export of large amounts of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
More than 20 million barrels. This is a daily indicator. Chris Wright previously said 17 million , now 20 million. And it's unclear whether Trump rounded the numbers or something else. Whatever the case , behind the scenes, US officials and two regional sources told Axios that Qatari mediators are continuing their shuttle diplomacy in an attempt to reach a deal.
On Thursday, the Qataris met in New York with the Iranian president and discussed a potential deal, which conveniently coincided with the moment when the Iranian president suddenly declared, "Oh yeah, by the way, we're open to weapons inspectors again." Like, please stop hurting us. Another thing that's obviously happening right now is the bond market, which is very interesting.
Stocks are ignoring the rapid rise in bond yields. Here's what, according to history, will happen next. We already discussed this a couple of days ago, that it's always a shock when yields rise so quickly. Something always breaks. Silicon Valley Bank , the Black Monday market crash of '87 , whatever.
There have been 16 times when the 10-year bond yield has risen so rapidly, and something has always broken. Well, maybe that's true. Again, we don't know what it is yet, but there's an interesting article in the Wall Street Journal about the long-term perspective, because even if a bank, for example, goes bankrupt, the stock market can survive.
And I don't want to look at this through rose-colored glasses, but the Wall Street Journal says, "Hey, anything can happen to the stock market in the long run, " which I know isn't very helpful, but there's so much negativity right now, as if that means the stock market is only going to go down. They give examples here.
In 1994, the bond market sell-off led to a stock sell-off, with the S&P 500 falling 8% in what I believe is the mid-cycle correction, which is exactly what Bullard was referring to when he spoke of this correction now. Oh, and then, of course, profitability skyrocketed again, and you got the dot-com bubble.
It was all quite pessimistic. There was a rise in 2006, which was a sign of a decline. But then in 2016, so these are three pessimistic examples. However, in 2016, the bond market sell-off actually coincided with a rally in stocks. In other words, I think the Wall Street Journal is saying that even if we have a small shock, the stock market can still go up.
Personally, I don't care about all this nonsense. I really think someone is going to get liquidated in the bond market and we'll find out what the shock is. But I think the more urgent issue is this deal with Iran. And I know, I feel like I'm like "that guy about Iran." I talk about it every day. But it's also extremely important, because if everything goes wrong, the economy will collapse .
Just start saving cash . But I see the complete opposite. I see more signs that the situation is developing in the right direction , rather than in the wrong . And I know I get comments from people like, "Great Kevin, stocks are only 2% off their all-time highs right now." Or, you know, depending on what's there on a particular day.
And I think: "So what?" They would be much higher if it weren't for this Iranian crap and these profitability issues. They would be even higher. That's the thing. So it's like: don't compare the current moment to historical highs, compare it to where we would be if it weren't for Iran. And this gap, I think, will soon be closed.
This will be delicious. By the way, hell, I didn't even have a sponsor for this video. Oh, it's okay . I love you all. Just subscrib.
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