저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 상업용 아파트 부채 만기 도래(2026~2028년 약 7,570억 달러, 향후 10년 약 1.8조 달러)로 Sun Belt 지역 아파트 투자자들이 압박받고 있다고 주장. 달라스 등 일부 지역 주택 가격 20~30% 하락, 바닥 근접 가능성 언급. 주식시장 낙관 유지하면서 장기적으로 저부채 부동산 분산투자 기회를 강조. 개별 사례(S2 Capital, Scott Everett)를 들어 고금리 변동금리 대출의 위험 경고.
다듬은 글
Wall Street is panicking over a $2 trillion wave of debt coming due, and it's not looking good. There are already people involved in this who are being forced to sell their own homes, having their property repossessed for debt, and being personally sued for tens of millions of dollars because, frankly, they went bankrupt by taking out loans in 2022 in oversaturated markets to buy apartment buildings.
And there's nothing I love to talk about more than real estate. And I have to say, as much as I do n't want anyone to suffer, as much as I don't want anyone to have problems, but when you go up to your ears in debt, as we say, to rip your investors off in more commissions, nothing makes me happier than seeing you get squeezed.
I don't want investors to lose money, but if you're being squeezed because you're reckless with debt, that 's your problem. And that's exactly what's happening here. You have a character like Scott Everett who is eventually mentioned in this article. I want you to see this. Look at this. They literally borrowed $85 million to purchase and renovate an apartment complex on Preston Road in Dallas, Texas.
The $85 million they borrowed. Now they were unable to make payments on the loan and eventually went through two different amendments that actually made his credit situation even worse. And now these guys, well, basically, not only have they defaulted, but Capital One is suing the borrower for over $11.4 million because he personally guaranteed the loan back in '22.
This is probably either the peak of stupidity, or the peak of arrogance, or the peak of both . I'm not trying to claim that, you know, I have a crystal ball. But let's say this. What we decided to do when we started our company, which has zero bank debt, uh, in 2022, is : the first thing we decided to do is we're going to spend 2 years, uh , which we did in '23 and part of '24, even though we actually started investing capital, we're going to spend at least all of 2023 flying around the country.
And that was a lot. I mean, I probably spent about 500 hours in a plane in 2023 . This is madness. But we were going to see what was really happening in all these markets. So, we went to Dallas. We went to Fort Worth. We went to, uh, mmm, Austin, Texas. We went to Florida. We went to all these regions of the " Sun Belt".
We went to Atlanta. And what we've come to realize as we've traveled through each of these markets is that the volume of construction relative to the number of tenants coming in is unsustainable. And now all of that is essentially collapsing because people who didn't do their research signed up for debts they shouldn't have signed up for.
So , here's the Wall Street Journal. That's how you get on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, I guess. Property owners will face bills totaling more than $1.8 trillion in debt over the next decade. Between this year and 2028, about 43% of them, $757 billion of these loans, are due for repayment.
We currently have $300 billion to repay this year alone. And this, in my opinion, creates tremendous opportunities. I actually think we're not there yet, but I believe we're nearing the bottom in parts of Florida and Texas. Not sure we're there yet, especially with regard to apartment complexes in these built-up areas, but I agree with the conclusions of this article.
At the end of the article, where most people don't even get to, but it's a good thing you do, because that's where the money lies. The bottom parts of articles usually contain the gist regarding money. Although they are not as bright as the beginning of the article. Look at this. Cash buyers are circling this distressed property.
CityView is buying directly from lenders who have taken control of the properties, something the firm has not done in years. CityView is getting about a 40% discount on a newly renovated apartment complex in the Dallas area that was in foreclosure. To be fair, they didn't specify what exactly this 40% discount is based on .
My guess is it was from the previous market value. Its market value has probably dropped by 30%, so maybe they're getting a 10% discount, right? So, they're probably comparing the peak to the trough, as we've seen housing prices fall by almost 30% in some of these regions. Somewhere around 25%, 21 to 25%, these are some of the bottoming out processes that we've started to see in Florida and Texas.
And there are other areas as well. Atlanta is another example, albeit to a lesser extent. So, it actually becomes an opportunity. Now you have to be careful, because is a 10% discount enough? Well, maybe if it's recently renovated, but it depends on the circumstances. And they say it's some of the best buying opportunities I've seen in my career, says CityView.
But this is just the beginning. If you're watching this video, you're one of the first. Everyone is making great money in the stock market right now, and that's good. And also those who invested, which we also talked about. We are optimistic about the stock market. I do n't think the stock market bubble will burst anytime soon, it will continue.
But in the next few years, I think it will be increasingly interesting to take some of that capital out of the stock market and diversify it into these opportunities in real estate; especially because between 2027, 2028, 2029 and 2030 we will have peak debt repayment periods for apartment buildings.
One of the benefits, paradoxically, that office and commercial spaces are now receiving is that people are coming in and setting up small data centers, micro-data centers, there. The Information just published an article about this, which talks about the use of data centers in the form of containers.
I wonder if I can find it quickly. But Nvidia is actually helping to build these micro-data centers out of containers. Yes, there it is . I found it. Let's go. Look at this. An Nvidia executive told me earlier this month that the company is working hard to address potential energy shortages, and one way to do that is by adding modular or ultra-small data centers.
Data center developer Crusoe, for example, said this week that it has raised $3.9 billion in new funding, including from Nvidia, to help scale up production of tiny modular data centers the size of a 1- megawatt shipping container. Such facilities are easier to start up faster than large ones, and they may involve the renovation of an old office building or manufacturing facility where electricity is already available .
Right? So, this actually creates a basis for valuing offices as you repurpose them either into housing or into data centers. Apartments do not have this advantage because they do not have the appropriate energy infrastructure. Let's look at Mr. Scott Everett's deal in Texas, for example. So, here it is.
Looks like he bought this place in '22, pretty close to the freeway. Uh, let's take a look at the street view near this facility. It looks like a 1960s-style building . Although, perhaps , it is newer. In fact, with this cladding, it could be a much newer building. But in any case, here is this residential complex.
Although there are carports here . I don't know. I'm still knocking on the door. This cladding may be a newer update. Oh, yes, all these carports. But anyway, this is the building they took out an 85... Well, they did take out an 85 million dollar loan. So maybe that's why they ended up painting it and adding that cladding.
But part of that old blocky style is pretty classic 1960s. I could be wrong about her age. It doesn't matter much . But the point is, that's exactly what they bought. And now they are losing it, as the Wall Street Journal reported, as new apartment construction has flooded the market, mostly in the Sun Belt region.
Areas like Phoenix, Denver, Atlanta, Austin, Texas were flooded with new luxury apartment buildings. Now many are selling at a loss. Where's the one with Scott? So, let's move on to Everett. Here he is. S2 Capital, a Dallas-based syndicate , has accumulated $400 million in outstanding loans . That's right.
In its portfolio of apartments in the " Sunny Belt". Earlier this summer, CEO Scott Everett dissolved the multifamily real estate fund and told investors they would not get their money back. He was personally sued by creditors and recently put his Dallas home up for sale. The firm plans to sell six defaulted properties for $290 million and is working to refinance hundreds of millions of dollars more in problem loans.
Everett said he expects the lawsuits to be resolved by the end of the month. Meanwhile, cash buyers are actually snapping up bargains. I mean, it's very Warren Buffett-style, and I think the opportunity is just starting to grow, which is exciting , because it means there's still time to make money in the stock market, so to speak.
And then direct it, you know , into diversified locations, particularly residential real estate. I don't think multifamily real estate in the Sun Belt has bottomed out yet, but some single-family homes are already bottoming out in some of these areas , so there are opportunities. I think they are becoming attractive.
I think there are a lot of opportunities around. However, I think it's also worth looking at some of the other comments about how they built it. So, Scott Everett appears to be selling his house for $45 million right now. This place—and all of this is publicly known. It is located on Walnut Hill Lane.
Let's take a look at this. So this guy was charging so many fees while investing in these luxuries, but he was also borrowing money into real estate at the worst possible time. Look at this. I've never even seen anything like this before. What is this? It's like a polished metal slide, similar to a high-heeled shoe.
And that's probably a huge overstatement, because I don't think this guy knows anything about real estate. But whatever , here it is . Here is your property, which is now up for sale because you are effectively bankrupt. Now I'm sure that this "little thing" also has a credit hanging on it. The guy really got into leverage when interest rates were rising.
Great idea. So, you have loans that need to be repaid. You have loans for multifamily homes that need to be repaid. He is too, and it's crazy because it's one of those things that my course participants know about—and I'm not advertising anything here, but they know that I'm a big fan of fixed-rate products.
But in April 2022, literally a month after the Fed began its rate hike cycle, this guy comes out and says, “Fixed rates are for suckers.” And now it looks like this : "Well, you know who's the sucker now?" Like, a fixed- rate mortgage is actually a wonderful thing. You are simply reducing the risk. If rates drop, you can always refinance and get better terms.
But if you get into a variable rate deal—oh my god, you're stuck. So he sent a letter to investors on July 1, informing them that all participants in this particular fund would receive zero return on their capital. That is, it's not even a return on your capital. You don't even get your capital back.
He even tried to take that syndication and turn it into a REIT at some point. And this REIT depreciated, I don't know, I think it started at $10 , went up to $10.50, and by the end of 2025 it was down to somewhere around $0.73 or so. So, pretty strict. Somehow he is still trying to raise money. I don't know why people would throw money at this again, especially with all the debt and legal fees this guy is up to his ears in, but he probably has no choice but to raise more money to try to save himself.
But many of these properties will go through the foreclosure process . And the problem is, when these buildings go through foreclosure, your property management starts to perform terribly. Nobody pays attention to property managers, and they start to do their jobs poorly. Sellers often start lying. I've dealt with this too, where sellers realize they are so deeply in debt that they start lying and trying to trick the buyer into purchasing the property, simply by lying about its condition or withholding information because they are trying to get out of trouble.
They got into trouble because they got into business without a fixed-rate mortgage. This is just another such example. Capital One, which is suing Scott, will likely foreclose on that Dallas property we were looking at. And, um...I mean, the reality is , it wasn't just interest rates that did it. And, you know, these hopes and dreams that these people had.
Oh, look at this. He also has a small golf simulator. We need to stretch that screen a little. Not only that, you also have to deal with rising costs. Insurance costs have increased. Many inflationary costs have also gone up. Rents in some of these overcrowded areas have fallen. So, rents go down, insurance premiums go up, labor costs for maintenance, repairs, landscaping , electricity, heating and ventilation—all these costs go up, taxes come up, everything goes up, and suddenly what was profitable becomes unprofitable, and you're paying extra out of pocket every month.
And if you can't find that money elsewhere, you're in trouble. So, you know, I'm not necessarily saying this guy is a fraud. But I think it was a very unwise time to take on huge debts, and unfortunately people are paying the price for it. Meanwhile, the stock market is just soaring. Oh my God. We were talking about Meta soaring back into the 550 to 560 range.
We were buying those stocks. They are up 9% today alone, based on my downtrend . So the stock market is very attractive, but I actually think that as this euphoria grows, the argument for diversifying into good real estate is valid, especially if you can go in with very low debt. Or through someone who doesn't act like a fool with debt. You know, teaming up with someone who doesn't act foolishly with deb.
Comments 0