저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Fed 금리인하 보류는 인플레 강화가 아닌 고용 안정 때문이며 주식에 우호적이다. 4/10 디레버리징 후유증으로 크립토가 소외됐으나 마켓메이커 자본 조달이 끝나면 반등한다. 6개월 급등 후 2주 조정은 정상이며 연말까지 계절성·실적이 양호해 S&P500 7,000 돌파를 전망한다. 글로벌 유동성 전환과 장기보유자 축적, ETF 유입을 근거로 장기 상승을 주장한다.
다듬은 글
Is crypto really breaking down for good? Or is the market setting up one of the most misunderstood rallies of the entire cycle? Right now, many traders believe the bull market is over. They see the Federal Reserve hesitating. They see crypto lagging behind equities, and they see volatility spiking across artificial intelligence stocks, quantum technology stocks, and nuclear energy stocks.
But beneath the noise, a very different picture is forming. a picture that points to strength, not weakness. Tom Lee believes the market is acting exactly as it should after months of non-stop gains. According to him, the Federal Reserve is not stepping back because inflation is rising. They are hesitating because the labor market is stabilizing, which means they do not need to force aggressive cuts.
That creates an environment where equities can still thrive. The April 10 crypto deleveraging event is also still echoing through the system. Market makers continue to rebuild balance sheets and every rally triggers capital raising. This slows the market today, but it also creates stored energy that will eventually unleash momentum in a powerful way.
In this video, we break down why Tom Lee is confident that both equities and crypto remain on track for a major upside move. We will look at the temporary forces pulling the market down, how long they are likely to last, and why the long-term setup is far stronger than most people realize. egin. I mean, I think one reason the the Fed is backpedaling on a cut in December is not because they have more confidence that inflation is uh strengthening.
In fact, you know, many of them said they just don't know. But in general, they agreed it's probably not. It's I think that there are signs that the labor market is maybe stabilizing. So you actually have a Fed waffling for the right reason, which is look, if the employment market's holding up, the Fed doesn't have to cut.
That's still a good environment for equities. I'm not trying to like spin it, but it's not a bad reason if the Fed is starting to have second thoughts. The first thing viewers need to understand is that the current hesitation from the Federal Reserve is not a sign of weakness in the economy. Tom Lee explains that the reason the Federal Reserve is unsure about cutting rates in December has nothing to do with rising inflation.
In fact, several Federal Reserve members openly stated that inflation does not appear to be strengthening. The uncertainty comes from something far more important. The labor market is showing signs of stability. When employment holds up, the Federal Reserve gains room to wait instead of rushing into rate cuts that might not be required.
A stable labor market means consumers continue to spend. corporate earnings remain solid and companies keep hiring. That creates an environment where risk assets can still perform well. A Federal Reserve that hesitates for the right reasons is not an enemy of the bull market. It shows that the economic system has real strength beneath the surface.
Equities tend to rise when employment remains healthy and many of the strongest bull runs in history came during periods where the Federal Reserve paused to assess conditions. The current hesitation is different from the past because inflation is not the driving force. The system is simply adjusting to a cooling but stable trend.
And this matters for crypto because Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader market depend heavily on liquidity and confidence. A stable labor market keeps confidence alive and reduces the risk of any aggressive policy shock. As long as the Federal Reserve sees no urgent threat, financial conditions remain supportive for both equities and digital assets.
The fear surrounding the Federal Reserve is louder than the data. When the noise fades, markets usually begin climbing again. More signs of the longerterm setup become clearer when you look at what happened after the April 10th deleveraging event. I think we're still seeing the repercussions of that April 10th crypto deleveraging event.
You know, it was the biggest deleveraging event ever. And there are still, I think, some market makers that have some balance sheet issues that are trying to raise capital. So, I think that this is leading to a market that is kind of raised. You know, every time we get a bit of a rally, there's some capital trying to be raised.
And I think that's what's suppressing crypto for now. That's of course going to end soon. But I think that's led to why crypto has underperformed equities since October 10th. The April 10 deleveraging event was the largest forced unwind in crypto history. It hit fast, it hit deep, and its effects continue to echo through the market months later.
Tom Lee points out that several market makers are still repairing their balance sheets. Some of them are raising capital quietly and every time crypto tries to push upward, their capital needs add pressure. This creates a market that looks muted even though demand has not disappeared. It is a mechanical headwind, not a structural failure.
When rallies appear, capital raising increases. When momentum slows, those same players reduce activity. This dynamic has kept cryptotrailing equities since October 10. It is not fear-driven. It is not the beginning of a collapse. It is simply the residue of an unprecedented leverage reset. Events like this often create the strongest recoveries.
for selling, cleans out weak positions, removes artificial liquidity, and prepares the market for healthier price discovery. Once market makers finish raising capital and balance sheets stabilize, the drag disappears. That is the moment when the market begins to move in a more natural direction. Historically, crypto has shown violent upside after large deleveraging events because the sell pressure burns out completely.
You also have new inflows building on the sidelines. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to show net inflows on most weeks. And institutional interest in Ethereum has grown since the approval of the first Ethereum ETF class. Even during consolidation, long-term holders keep accumulating. That shows conviction has not cracked.
Crypto is not underperforming because investors lost interest. Crypto is underperforming because the system is digesting the biggest forced reset it has ever seen. The moment that digestion ends, momentum returns fast. What comes next becomes even clearer once we look at how equities behave during temporary consolidation phases.
Before that, . It's never fun to see markets um wobble and then stocks that are quite popular like AI and the quantum uh and nuclear come down so hard. But it is consistent with the idea that, you know, we were up 6 months through October, so the markets overbought. We expected two weeks of consolidation, which is what we're getting.
And then, of course, as you know, there's hawkish Fed talk. So, there's a bit of a tantrum the market's having. But between now and year end, we still have really good seasonals. The earnings have been good. Sentiment has flipped negative, Scott, as you could tell. I mean, the AI went to7.5. So, I I'd say the riskreward is still really good for equities into year end.
And yeah, I think the S&P will be over 7,000 by the end of the year. you know, in fact, maybe over 7,000 by the end of the month. The recent weakness in equities and in high growth sectors has caused a wave of panic, but Tom Lee makes it clear that nothing happening right now is unusual. Markets went straight up for six consecutive months through October.
When that happens, a cooling period always arrives. Artificial intelligence stocks, quantum technology stocks, and nuclear energy stocks fell sharply, but sharp pullbacks are common after strong runs. This two-week consolidation is exactly what Tom Lee expected. It has nothing to do with a breakdown and everything to do with the market catching its breath.
There is also the familiar noise from hawish Federal Reserve statements. Every cycle brings moments when the Federal Reserve sounds aggressive and every cycle brings a temporary reaction from traders. That is the tantrum the market is having now. Yet, when you look at the bigger picture, the foundation remains strong.
Earnings have come in better than expected across major sectors. Seasonal strength into the end of the year is still intact. Sentiment flipped negative quickly, which often sets the stage for powerful upside once momentum returns. When the crowd becomes fearful at the top of a healthy structure, it usually marks opportunity rather than danger.
Tom Lee even believes the S&P could climb past 7,000 before the end of the year. He sees a path where the index could break that level by the end of the month if conditions stay aligned. The riskreward still tilts to the upside because the pullback has removed excess positioning without damaging the larger trend.
Once consolidation finishes, markets tend to resume their original direction. Crypto follows that same rhythm with a slight delay. When equities regain momentum, digital assets usually accelerate even faster. The bigger story becomes more convincing when you look at macro signals that are lining up with long-term strength.
A major force that supports long-term crypto growth is the global liquidity cycle. Even when short-term volatility dominates the headlines, liquidity determines the real direction of risk assets. Over the past year, liquidity has been uneven because governments and central banks have been managing debt rollover windows, rebuilding reserves and adjusting to post-tightening conditions.
These actions created brief periods where liquidity felt tight, which added weight on crypto. But the broader trend now shows early signs of improvement. Several major economies have lowered real rates. The United States Treasury has slowed the pace of balance sheet reduction. China has introduced measures that stabilize credit conditions.
Europe has shifted toward policies that support spending. These moves do not create an instant breakout, yet they lay the groundwork for a steady rise in liquidity that eventually lifts risk markets. Crypto responds quickly once global liquidity reaches a certain threshold. Bitcoin and Ethereum tend to act like high-powered amplifiers of liquidity because demand increases the moment financial conditions soften.
During past cycles, the largest expansions in value happened during periods when liquidity moved upward, even if growth was slow at first. This pattern is beginning to reappear now. Stable inflation gives the Federal Reserve more freedom to avoid aggressive tightening. A steady labor market allows policymakers to wait without harming economic activity.
When central banks are not strangling credit, liquidity slowly leaks back into risk assets. Another important signal is the behavior of large funds. Many institutions have been rotating capital toward assets that benefit from long-term monetary expansion. That includes Bitcoin and Ethereum through regulated ETFs.
Even during the current slowdown, net inflows remain positive. These inflows show that major investors are preparing for the next expansion rather than running from the market. Liquidity turning upward is one of the strongest long-term signals you can get. When liquidity rises, crypto eventually follows with force.
What strengthens this outlook further is the behavior of long-term holders who continue to accumulate despite volatility. A strong bull market never begins with excitement. It begins with quiet conviction from long-term holders. Even with the recent pressure coming from the April 10 aftershocks, the hesitation from the Federal Reserve, and the temporary tantrum in equities, the strongest participants in the crypto market have not slowed down.
Wallet data from major analytics firms shows rising accumulation across Bitcoin and Ethereum. Supply held by long-term holders has reached levels that usually appear before large upward moves. These holders rarely react to monthly volatility. They move based on multi-year expectations and their behavior often predicts where the market is headed next.
At the same time, exchange balances continue to fall. More Bitcoin and Ethereum are leaving exchanges and moving into cold storage. that reduces available supply for new buyers. When supply tightens during periods of weak sentiment, the next rally often becomes sharper because there is not enough liquidity to absorb sudden demand.
This creates the fast upward moves that define crypto bull markets. Nothing happening today has changed that supply story. In fact, the recent consolidation has encouraged even more accumulation because disciplined investors see discounted levels as opportunity rather than danger. Institutions also add fuel to this picture.
Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs remain consistent accumulation vehicles even during downturns. Many professional investors are required to follow structured allocation models. When prices fall, those models push them to add exposure. Combined with the steady behavior of long-term holders, this creates an environment where buying pressure grows quietly in the background.
There is also the structural shift in how digital assets are viewed. Bitcoin is increasingly treated as a strategic asset rather than a speculative trade. Ethereum is gradually being framed as an essential settlement layer for future financial networks. These shifts bring stability to long-term demand.
When short-term fear collides with long-term conviction, long-term conviction usually wins. The current landscape shows a market resetting, not breaking. As these forces align, the path forward begins to look much stronger than the recent noise suggests. Anyway guys, that's all we have for today.
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