저자: Kevin · 외국인
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상원 다수당 원내대표 매코널 발언으로 4차 부양법안 규모는 1조달러 이하로 소규모·단기 경기부양 중심이 될 것이라 전함. 자금 지급 시점은 6월 3~4주차 협상 시작으로 지연되어 7월 4일 직후가 예상되며, 7월 휴회 전 통과는 낙관적이라는 상원의원 발언도 언급. 진행자는 1,200달러 수표와 고용 인센티브 포함을 예상하고 $600 실업수당 연장은 축소될 것으로 봄. 레드핀(RDFN)을 3월 저점에 매수했다고 밝히며 긍정적 평가.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, Kevin here. I have a breaking news update for you regarding what Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell just said about the next stimulus package. And it's not only what he said, but it's also what the rest of his delegation says and the top Senate leaders about that Heroes Act and the next round of stimulus in talks with the White House.
Breaking news. We have not talked about this before because ah this is hot off the press and I'm excited to cover it. So here's the scoop. In this video, we're going to find out what size of stimulus package they're looking for. We're going to break that down. Then we're going to look at some things they're talking about regarding timing.
This is an update on the timing talks and sort of the calendar expectations we have for when this money might actually come to us. And then of course we'll get into uh I'll make a few other mentions. Specifically, I wanted to mention some stocks I encourage you to look at over the weekend as we prepare to go into the next week.
Okay, here we go. Let's go ahead and pull this up. So, Axios broke this story. They I think somehow had direct access to this call or the transcripts of this call which is huge. So I always want to give credit where credit's due. I'll tell you sometimes I feel like this is an episode of Nightcrawlers or I guess that was a movie.
So the movie Nightcrawlers maybe that's why I'm always on coffee cuz there's like a rush to get this information out and then like 6 hours after I break this it's everywhere else. I'm forget the drama. Let's just get right into this. Okay. And let's go ahead right over here to Oh wait, sorry. This is where .
Uh oh, and that's where you sign up for life insurance. Okay, sorry. Those are the links down below. This is where we got to go. Here we go. This is the big stuff. Uh right here. So, during a meeting at the White House on Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell stressed to President Trump that the next stimulus package, here it is.
These are the words, cannot exceed $1 trillion. This is a big deal. We're going to talk about this specifically and how we might be able to break this down into actual numbers here in just a moment. But look at this line. This is another huge line right here. Very, very important that this discussion is happening in the Senate.
Look at this right here. Should be focused and narrowly focused on getting money into the hands of people immediately. That is actually a very Democrat line to hear. Narrowly focused on getting money into the hands of people immediately. Sources familiar with the meeting tell Axios. Okay, so this is how they got the information.
Good for them. All right, they got they got a leak in the White House. You know what? There's somebody to pay attention to. I wish I had a leak in the White House. How cool would that be? Anyway, uh unless just don't sue me, bro. Okay. Anyway, McConnell goes on to stress that the next phase 4 bill needs to be much smaller and should also focus on short-term economic relief and create incentives for people to get back to work.
Let's specifically break this down along with the time frame here in just a moment, but take a look at this. Uh we know that they're worried about extending the unemployment payments. We already talked about that. We've talked about that over the last few days. That's that $600 boost. We know that McConnell's not that happy with that.
We know that Republicans are probably going to cut that down. There going to be asterisks on this. They want to see people get back to work. But I will say I'm very enthused and optimistic that we see this phrase up here that the bill should be narrowly focused on getting money into the hands of people immediately.
That's big. Uh the fact that it's going to be smaller is going to be very interesting. So, let's try we'll break down the numbers on that. Here's something interesting, too. Uh they urged for a smaller relief package, and they actually, it says here, McConnell threw cold water on Trump's idea to continue to push uh to tie infrastructure spending to the bill right here.
This is really interesting. We're trying to steer away from an Obama stimulus package. One of the sources said, "Could you imagine being in the White House and and you know, Trump or the Republicans are sitting there going, we don't we don't want to do an Obama style plan." And in case you don't remember, Obama's uh uh recovery act from uh during the Great Recession, I wrote the numbers over here, was an $831 billion plan.
Keep in mind the the stimulus package, the car's act that we first patched was 2.2 trillion. That was 831 billion. Uh and then what the Democrats just proposed was $3 trillion. Uh the Obama era one was 831 billion and had 105 billion earmarked for infrastructure. And so here McConnell's actually suggesting let's forget about infrastructure now.
Let's just focus solely on getting money to the people and getting people back to work. Short-term economic incentives. This is also a very key word to pay attention to. Short-term that's going to that basically also throws the bathwater out on any of these like 12-month plans. short-term from a political science point of view and that's the balance I always like to give you is the balance between an investor person with accounting experience and also political science short-term we're realistically talking about 3 months here because they think that they could repass something if they need to and that's generally the way Republicans govern is with ad hoc stimulus packages or or bills in general when something needs to be done then they'll address it there's a lot less of well let's create something that's going to last for this next you know 12 to 24month recovery.
That's why we keep hearing that phraseology. Um, let's wait and see. That's just a very Republican characteristic. I'm not saying that's right or wrong. And as y'all say in the comments, meat, I'm not taking sides, Kevin. I thought that was pretty good. Uh, that's you guys said it for me. Okay, what else do we got here?
Uh, let's Okay, obviously we know that liability protection is going to be in there, but that's not so big. Before we get to timing, let's go ahead and pop open a spreadsheet here. Timing is going to be very, very important. So, don't leave yet. But we want to talk about timing. But first, let's go ahead and write some stuff down here.
Okay. So, what do we know that we're expecting in this next bill? This is big. So, let's let's try to figure this out together. We know we're expecting to see stimulus uh uh checks, right? All right. So, for stimulus checks, we know the IRS says a little over 150 million folks got stimulus checks. So, let's go with 155 million here got stimulus checks and multiply that by $1,200.
Some people obviously got $500 credits, but let's just go ahead and go with this. That works out to $186 billion. Remember, we only got only $1 trillion to spend here. These numbers are insane, but this would give us immediate money in our pockets, right? Except the time frame part I'm about to reveal to you is a little scary, but uh we'll talk about that in just a second.
So, we got stimulus checks. Let's go ahead and put some money in here for state and local governments because we know the Democrats are going to push for this. And who knows, maybe they'll be able to negotiate this bill up to 1.5 trillion. maybe even two trillion. But the Republicans have the power right now.
So let's go ahead and say that the state and local governments get $30 billion. That's 300 million. So I just got to add three more zeros. This is pretty much does, right? Then you got liability protection. So realistically, liability protections could be sort of the the wave of a wand if they're able to automatically throw out certain lawsuits or judges are able to do that.
So, I'm not sure that this should cost much money, but let's go ahead and put a fund in here of $20 billion anyway to help businesses who get sued, uh, you know, do whatever they need to do to extinguish certain corona virus related lawsuits. So, we'll put 20 bill in for that. Then, we've got heroes, right?
Heroes has been pushed for by uh, Republicans, by Democrats, and we also have credits or like work incentives. Let's just go ahead and say that those incentives are going to match the stimulus checks and we'll just call that $186 billion as well. That could be extra pay. Those could be tax credits for payroll uh you know deductions or educational expenses.
I don't know. It could be a whole host of things. But let's go ahead and put aside $186 billion for that. Let's say they throw in some more money then for the EIDL or as Treasury Secretary Minutian says the idol. Uh, and then we'll go ahead and uh I'm I'm running out of zeros here to push. There we go.
And then let's go ahead and put in $200 billion dollar as well for the PPP. And this is kind of what that would look like. This package would be Oh, look at that. Just under $1 trillion. So, it looks like it's possible. The the big thing that's lost here is remember the Democrats proposal had way more money for state and local.
So if state and local goes up to, you know, 500 bill, we're over on the budget and it's just not going to happen. If this goes to 500 bill, that's that's already 1.1 trillion. So it'll be interesting to see how this breaks apart. But let's hit the other news here on timing because that's a little problematic as well.
So this is not so good. But Senator Chuck Grassley, who just so you know is the Senate prompur, which basically means he takes over for Vice President Mike Pence when he's not there, who's the president of the Senate. The vice president leads the Senate and then they appoint a proemp uh who's Chuck Gracley.
Anyway, he's he's up there, okay? He's like a senior senator. And apparently he told reporters this afternoon that real negotiations, wait for it, won't start until the 3rd or fourth week of June. Like, you've got to be kidding me. Why? They're already taking basically the rest of May off. Why would it take Why would the first two weeks of June disappear?
Especially when they're saying that they they're they want a bill that's narrowly focused on getting money into the hands of people immediately. Like that's cognitive dissonance here. You can't on one hand say I want to be focused on getting money into the hands of people immediately. But then on the other hand say we're not going to have real negotiations until 3 to four weeks into June.
Ah you know last time we talked about timing we were kind of thinking look we're probably not going to see this money until at least July 4th. So I mean maybe if those nea negotiations get condensed. So our current prediction or my current prediction is plus or minus July 4th. But this kind of makes me think it's going to be shortly after July 4th now with this new information here.
Oh, well there you go. Senator Roy Blunt, I wonder if he's blunt says passing a phase 4 bill by July uh recess is optimistic. Okay. But said the legislation must be passed by August. So, just so you know, the Senate recess for July is about the 10th to the 20th, which I mean, I don't know about you, but when I was a kid, before I got two free stocks with Weeble when I deposited $100 and life insurance before those days, when I was a kid and we were, you know, didn't get our homework done, we didn't get to have recess.
We got to sit in class during the 30 minute recess break and we had to get our work done. It's just this what really like oh hopefully we get it done before recess but if not we'll get it done after recess. It's just so frustrating. Like it if this doesn't piss you off then I feel like you're not human.
Uh but I have a feeling that all of you agree that this is bogus. Uh but at least they're optimistic that it'll get passed before the July recess which would mean right after July 4th. All right. So I don't know about you. I don't know how I feel about this. Uh, I feel good that now it's clear. Now we're not talking about if phase four is going to happen anymore.
Now we're talking about how much and what's going to be in it. That's good. That's literally what we should have been talking about all this week. Except no, we were here. We were still hearing let's wait and see crap this week. So frustrating, but this is good information. So what are we what are we still expecting?
Let's do a quick recap on what we're expecting and then let's uh let me talk about stocks just for a quick moment. So, uh, in terms of what we're expecting right now, I personally still believe, and I ran this poll on Instagram and Twitter, I personally do believe that we're going to see that $1,200.
I do think we're going to see some form of heroes credit or credit for uh, payroll taxes. That's going to be that incentive to get back to work. I know that's that's more complicated than more stimulus, but remember, I'm saying $1,200 stimulus plus some kind of credits. And the stimulus itself is a tax credit, too.
Okay? Like I know it's it's also confusing with the verbiage, but uh we expect that we see an asterisk on the extension for the $600 unemployment insurance. My guess is they might come out and say something like, "Look, we'll subsidize states and we'll let states continue to give unemployment insurance payments to people who are unemployed who were self-employed." Remember that was part of the car's act.
But I think they're going to get rid of this $600 a week thing, the boost basically. I'm not saying I want them to get rid of it at all. Like I I I mean I think that's wonderful, but I you know on one hand, yeah, I mean some people are making more money on unemployment than they were making uh at their jobs, which I like I do, as much as that's cool, like and I'm happy for y'all, it is kind of like I see a little bit of a moral hazard there.
Okay, now let's hit stocks. We'll see though. Uh not taking sides, right? Me not taking sides, Kevin. Uh okay, now let's quickly take a look at this here. So this right here is a video that I posted. This is so weird to say this. I posted this video on March 18th. Six stocks I just bought despite the crash.
You might know that I've literally been buying stocks every single day that the market has been red throughout March, throughout April, and so far throughout May. I just buy a little bit at a time all the time. And I pick my favorites. One of my favorites has been Red Fin. And I bought Redfin at $10.33 uh as I show you in this video.
What's crazy about that is they are now trading for about $29. That is uh back almost to a precrash peaks uh where they were at about $32, $33. Now, let me just say this, okay? This is not supposed to be a fundamental analysis what I'm about to tell you, but I am going to be doing that fundamental analysis this weekend and then sharing that with my uh uh private course members next week.
I might mention it on the channel here. I don't know, maybe Lauren and I will film another vlog, too. You should check out Lauren's vlog, . But I do believe Redfin has some staying power. That's not such good news for real estate agents. And I know a lot of real estate agents who follow me are going to not be so happy about that.
But remember, I've always, as a real estate broker, because I am one and an investor, I've always said that real estate can be hedged by buying Redfin. That is, if you're an agent, buy Redfin stocks. So if they take over the world, at least you're winning over here, right? Uh, but I I I like the company.
Uh, and I do think that they're doing all the right things for what they are as a dare I say discount brokerage, even though yes, that is what they are. So, uh, some things to consider. I hope you like this new information. Let me know if you like this sort of like little stock appended at the end of the video.
I don't want to bore you with a bunch of stock info in just one video. I I don't know, maybe you would want that. Anyway, . Please subscribe. Thank you so much for being here and until next time.
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