저자: AlyssaCororm,JustinNielsen · 외국인
요약 보기
시장은 지수 상승에도 하단 약세로 '회복력은 있으나 진전은 없는' 상태. 소형주 강세(러셀2000 +1.2%)지만 신고가 대비 신저가 우위. 반도체 장비주 급락 후 일부 반등, TSMC 자본지출 축소 우려 언급. 주택건설 ETF(ITB)는 2월 고점 부근. Broadcom은 50일선 부근 조정 중 거래량 감소로 매수 셋업 가능성, DV는 30달러 지지 박스권, FND는 100달러 저항 돌파 여부 주목.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon everyone and it's Alyssa Cororm and Justin Nielsen here with a look at the market for Monday, April 17th and we're getting close to the tax deadline. It's also a busy earnings week Justin and stocks kicked off this week with some modest gains. Yeah. So, I mean, I think the the story of right now is resilience for the market, but not really progress.
So, uh we'll take a look at a few stocks that are setting up though, including Broadcom, Double Verify, and Flora Decor. Yes, we will get to those stocks, but first, let's take a look at the major indexes. We saw the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P 500 all up about 3/10en of a percent a piece today. Small caps did lead with the Russell 2000 up about 1.2% heading into the close.
So a strong gain for small caps which are still trying to rebound uh from that March route. But here's a look at the NASDAQ. As you said, we are seeing a resilient market on the surface, but what about underneath the surface? Yeah, underneath the surface is a it's a kind of a different story. Um we talked on IBD live this morning about how the new highs and new lows still being overwhelmed by the new lows uh o overall.
And you know, this is where sometimes the big mega cap companies can kind of mask some of that weakness. Uh because again, the indexes don't look bad by themselves, but uh there's a lot of stocks under the surface that just aren't uh making much progress. Um you know, and and and there there are some that are failing out there.
Now, we also, as you mentioned, have earning season to contend with. Um starting to ramp up. It's going to get even busier over the next few weeks. Uh kind of peaking probably in uh in in two or three weeks. Um, so we've got that to look for. So, of some of these setups that we're seeing out there, uh, which is is great because you're seeing the index kind of make a little basing formation here.
And a lot of times stocks will kind of follow along with that. The problem is going to be, uh, are their earnings going to be coming right around the corner? I mean, just as one example, uh, take a look at Netflix, you know, which is carving out a nice little cup with handle there, but, uh, earnings, you know, coming up.
And I think we're going to see more and more of this um as we go on. Um looking at the S&P 500, uh we've got, you know, that one also showing some good gains and and and and that one's making a little bit more progress, kind of um getting closer to those February 2nd highs and uh definitely clearing the the resistance from just a couple weeks ago, those highs.
So, uh a little bit better there. Uh but you know the the Russell 2000 as you mentioned uh even though that was leading today I mean look that's still a lot of yeah direction it's got a lot of work to do. Um you know you you've got a lot more of this uh back and forth. Um and again you know what what you're kind of seeing here though is is in a lot of ways a lack of progress.
It's just um it's it's it's got some big days there but it's it's also got some big down days. So, um, you're just not seeing too much movement forward. Uh, and and that's that's what's been frustrating. It's about this market. You know, things are setting up looking like they might go, but, uh, at the end of the day, you're kind of like scratching your head.
Am I really making progress? Is it worth it even? So, we will be on the lookout for even better market conditions. uh because it's when you're seeing strong market conditions and then underneath the surface stocks acting strong that obviously that's that's the best case scenario for active investors who have concentrated portfolios.
Yeah. And we just we just need um this this isn't a very forgiving market. There's a lot of times where uh you have the indexes going well, a lot of stocks are going well. you can you can make mistakes and not get punished for it or uh th there there are those types of markets where you know it doesn't really matter what you buy everything's going up.
Uh that is not the kind of market that we have right now. So it's less forgiving. Um does mean that it requires more discipline and that's why they call it a stock pickers market because it's not just like you can throw a dart and and think you know you're going to you're going to do okay. It really is um you know picking and choosing those best stocks out there and making sure you have the risk management in place because a lot of these stocks aren't working and so you have to make sure that you're uh cutting losses quickly and and getting out before things turn ugly.
Yes. Now let's take a look at the 10-year Treasury yield. Here's Zerx continuing to make gains here. looks like it's developed a trading range, but honestly, the recent momentum looks like it could soon get back above the 50-day line, although might hit resistance there. That's that's that's the question, right?
You know, we got back above that 200 day moving average line. And again, you might think, well, gosh, do the do the yields really matter? Uh I mean, do the moving average lines really matter on the yields? Um, you know, it's amazing how sometimes they do, you know. So, uh, just just as with anything, the the way the trends work.
So, uh, now that we are back above that 200 day moving average line, I think it remains to be seen whether or not we're going to cross that that 50-day moving average line. There's still quite a bit of uncertainty. We we keep on getting Fed talk. Um, you know, just just on Friday, we had, hey, you know, we we need more hikes with a with an S at the end um from from Waller.
And, you know, that that that's just one of those things that we have to contend with. in addition to as we also saw last week not just the inflation fears um but also you know recession fears too. So uh there's there there's there's stuff that we have to deal with uh here and um that's going to be one of those uncertain parts of the market.
Not that that's going to hold it down. I mean a lot of times the market is climbing a wall of worry. Uh but we still need more evidence that more stocks are willing to participate and follow through on more of their more of their strength and and continue trending. Right. Yeah. A lot of crossurrens here that we will stay on top of because we also have uh more bank earnings this week.
So that uh even though the I think the heightened period of the drama surrounding the banking crisis has uh by and large subsided, we could be getting more more color on that um from executives in the coming weeks with these earnings reports coming out. Yeah. Uh, and I mean just as an example of that, if you pull up KRE as kind of a representation of the regional banks, um, you can see how, you know, and in March that just got thrashed after, uh, SIVB uh, failed and and and and other banks were, you know, coming under pressure and failing.
But if you look at XLF, um, you know, XLF, the financial sector spider uh, ETF is is by no means super strong, but it's not nearly as bad. And I mean we started seeing you know the likes of JP Morgan and um you know stocks like that that were were showing pretty strong numbers in terms of deposits and things like that.
So you look at JP Morgan and that's that's already back above its 50-day moving average line. So a very different picture uh for for the big behemoths in that space. Okay. We also want to take a look at RSP. This is the S&P equal weight. Looks like it also is going sideways and tight here, hitting some resistance at the 50-day line.
Is it a concern, Justin, that we are seeing um perhaps some underperformance here? It looks like in the equal weight, it's it's showing that um the advancers are still somewhat concentrated. Yeah, exactly. I I think, you know, it's it's a good uh good idea to take a picture of how this compares to the S&P 500 itself.
You know, it it's a very different look. Um S&P 500 above its 50-day moving average line, nearing those February 2nd highs, RSP, which again, as you mentioned, it's the equal weighted. So, when you when you don't treat the the mega caps differently and give them a lot more weight, uh and you treat everything kind of equally, it's it's really a different picture.
We're a lot further away from those February 2nd highs and we're underneath that 50-day moving average line with potential resistance there. And we want to take a look at uh some sector ETFs quickly. Here's SMH. Uh really the the story today in the chip sector was the chip equipment stocks like uh AAT.
Although it looks like it did close off lows, so that's good to see LRTX. It was some of the uh the Smi equipment stocks that were hit in the early going, but it so it looks like they were able to close off lows. So, some resilience here. That's that seems to be the theme with the market, but uh also this group.
Yeah. Yeah. And and and you know, it it was something that I think, you know, did spook some some folks. Um ASML was one in particular that um it really kind of, you know, gapped down below that 50-day moving average line. um undercut, you know, uh a recent low. And as you mentioned, a lot of these did come up off of their highs and and close in the upper part of the range, but that was still off 4%.
Um and again, this was this was kind of based on uh Taiwan Semiconductor saying that they were going to be reducing some capex spending and um you know, so you've got a lot of these that were hit hard and this has been one of the the bright spots in the market. So, you just have to be be cautious there when you're seeing some of the bright spots come under pressure.
And again, there is that resilience level that you talked about. SMH is still above the 50-day moving average line, potentially getting some uh support there. And they did close off their lows. So, we'll just have to see if um you know, this this make sure this doesn't turn into something a little bit uglier uh for one of the bright spots in the market.
Yes, absolutely. We want to take a look at XME. This is the Metals and Mining ETF. Looks like it advanced uh a little bit today. We've seen some improvement since the low in miday, but it seems like, you know, we're seeing some uh metal and mining stocks that have been looking relatively decent. Your thoughts?
Yeah, I mean this is where the metals and mining um are are very different, right? you know, because you have like the steel stocks, uh, like SLX, um, that are are looking weaker, looking a little bit more like XME, but then you also have like the gold, you know, GDX, um, and and and GLD, I either of those, you know, are showing a very different picture, a lot more strength there.
Um, you also have the the ones like, you know, yeah, Freeport, Macaran, and and SECO. Uh, so it really kind of depends. when you say metals and mining, it depends on what metals you're talking about and when what what you're mining. So, it's just something to keep in mind when you're looking at some of these ETFs.
Um, and and Ed had a really good comment on this, you know, just last week, you know, talking about you really kind of need to know what's in there, you know, to make sure that you're truly getting what you think you're getting. Um because if you're if you're wanting to participate in gold and you think metals and mining is the way to do it, um you you you might be a little disappointed there.
Yes. Okay. And now let's just quickly take a look at uh two more ETFs. We've got ITV here. Here's the home construction ETF hitting its highest levels now today in a couple of months. So back to its February highs. We also have XLR with a strong daytoday up 2.3%. It's been a lagard though, but it was decent uh today with that outperformance.
Yeah. So, it was it was the of the 11 sector spider ETFs, this was the top dog. Um up two and a quarter. The next closest one was XLF, which as we mentioned, you know, has also been a little bit of a lagard. So, you just have to be careful when you're seeing some of the the lagard areas uh show the strength.
Um that's not necessarily giving you all that much confidence for the day. But again, we're we're back to that uh that word of the day. Resilience is is what we're seeing right now. Okay. And we mentioned the chip sector. So, let's go to one of the chip leaders, Broadcom, ticker ABGO. It finished up on the day by about 1.3%.
Volume was light. So, it's it's not bouncing from this 50-day with conviction yet. The uh test of support is still happening. it it looks like. But for a stock that has made huge strides since bottoming in October, seeing a nice orderly pullback in quiet volume to these moving averages uh could be a compelling setup.
What do you think, Justin? Yeah, that's that's that's what I like about it. It's again that that nice quiet volume and we're seeing a lot of that quiet volume in a lot of places and unfortunately sometimes on the bounces and the breakouts too, which is not ideal. Uh but right now the the volume is quieting exactly where you'd like to see it on the pullback.
Um now we just have to see if we get a bounce. What I do like also is um as you pointed out, as we looked at earlier, SMH, the the broader sector uh was getting support at the 50-day moving average line and closed off its lows, but still down slightly, a little bit flat. At least Broadcom was able to kind of close up uh pretty significantly.
I mean, up over a percent. So that that's pretty strong. We just need to get that volume confirmation to kind of give us more conviction behind some of these moves. Yeah. And I'll set an alert from this high from last week. See if it can take that out. That would coincide. Not a bad place to set it.
Yeah. Getting above the, you know, 10day. It's It's right at the 10day and 21 day line. Uh but we'll see if it can just get a little bit more of a of a bounce in some volume. That would be great. Okay, let's take a look at double verify ticker DV. Nice and tight action. looking like it's now finding a home above this round number of 30.
It's of course just the first day of the a new trading week, but maybe we get a three weeks tight here, Justin. It's had some strong moves over the over the last couple of weeks and is now quieting down. Yeah. And um we were talking about this kind of internally uh today and one of the things was it's it's it's not like there's a moving average line like uh the 21-day or 50-day line that it's kind of getting support at.
Um but that 30 is very compelling. I mean if you kind of just look to the left you can see that 30 was kind of an area of resistance. Um you know and even if you go to the weekly you can kind of see it going further back. So there there have been a number of times even going back to February of last year where that that 30 area did kind of become important.
Um so you know the fact that you're kind of tightening up right around there. I like that you're building a platform uh something from which you can launch from. Uh and again here we have another situation where the volume has really trickled off on this one like you would like to see. So, um, again, if we can kind of see that volume come in and a strong move, uh, together, that would be that would be enough to get me interested.
And it's also worth noting that the computer software enterprise um, specialty enterprise that those have been a group that um, have been looking a lot stronger. Uh, some of these have been coming off their bottom, but uh, this is number 20 out of 197. So, it's got uh, it's got some group uh, action.
Yeah. and and man, it's kind of been a while since we've seen software in the top 20. Yeah. Especially the enterprise which was, you know, so strong, but I mean, you you look at a lot of these uh groups uh really topped in February of 2021. So, it's been it's been a minute since uh they've been leading.
Yeah. Okay. Now, let's take a look at FND to round things out. And speaking of round, that 100 level seems to be a clearly a round. I guess I Let's just see how far back Let's just see how far back the line can go. Why not, right? Uh but there there's a lot of uh points touching that area. Justin, we can take a closer look on the daily chart as well.
Yeah. So, you can just, you know, as you said, it's it's that 100 level that I think is a real big level of interest here. um you know it's it's been butdding its head up against there as volume has been trickling off. Uh so the question is can it get above there and and hold above there and so uh it's it's in that um you know we we we pulled up ITB earlier the home builders have been one of those areas of strength uh this is kind of along with that and you know as as home sales uh existing home sales improve um you know that's something that they really look at and uh I would highly recommend for folks to look at the stock of the day today that was written by Jed Graham who does so great work for us uh on on Fed days and on economic news.
And so, you know, he really kind of broke it down what the what the 30-year uh fixed mortgage means for for floor and decor and existing home sales and everything like that. So, um it's it's a it's a very interesting kind of play that you're seeing. Not a lot of people would have thought that home builders would have been an area of strength and um given the the rising rates.
Um, but you know, the stock market's going to do what it's going to do and it it's looking forward and so far it seems like it likes what it sees and so this is an area where we keep on seeing setups and uh I I can't find any fault with the base that Floren Decor is forming right now. We'll just have to see if it can do something with it.
All right. Well, thank you so much Justin and thanks everyone for tuning in. We'll be back with more tomorrow morning on IBD Live and we hope you join us. Investors.comdive for all the details. We'll see you there. And we'll also see you right back here tomorrow at the close.
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