저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
미-EU 관세 협상으로 15% 기본관세가 유력하며, 이는 세수 확보 목적이고 주로 미국 기업·소비자 부담으로 이어질 것으로 봄. 증시는 낙관적 시나리오를 선반영했고 VIX 하락·달러 안정이 이를 보여줌. 경제는 서비스 중심이라 관세 충격을 버티는 중이며, AI 열풍은 일부 과열·과잉투자 가능성 있음. 자산배분은 2010년 이후 미국 비중 확대 기조를 유지하며, 강세장 과열 신호(bull-bear 비율) 접근 중. 자동차 업계는 관세 불확실성과 자율주행 장기 리스크로 도전 과제가 큼.
다듬은 글
understand the kind of global commentary we've seen overnight and what we can expect on the tariff front and high morning. What are you making of um the speculation that the street has right now with the US EU deal? The number is being pegged at 15%. What could that look like? Yeah, it very much looks as though the president, President Trump is aiming now at a 15% base tariff.
uh for a while there it looked like he was satisfied with 10% and then would negotiate whether there'd be any additional tariffs depending on uh the conditions that were open or close to American goods in various countries. Uh but now it looks like he wants 15%. I think the reason for that is he needs it to uh help raise revenues to help to reduce the federal deficit.
Uh at the end of the day that tariff is going to wind up being a tax probably mostly at American businesses and American consumers and to a certain extent I presume that uh exporters foreign exporters will be leaned on by their American customers to try to help to a certain extent. Uh but all in all I think uh he's getting kind of what he wants.
it will probably be 15% base rate with the EU and uh then we'll see uh whether the EU opens up. Uh it's hard to imagine that they will because they've been relatively closed for quite some times because a lot of special interest groups uh that don't want uh to have uh uh easy competition for foreign companies.
Yeah, absolutely. head. I'm just wondering you know um how does one read into the reaction of the equity markets? I mean I can see that the VIX is uh you know compressing quite sharply. You've got the dollar index which is completely stabilized now. Do you think the markets have much priced in all the tariff negotiations so far?
Well I I think the the markets have uh priced in a fairly optimistic scenario. It's uh quite a radical change from what uh the thinking was in the markets back in uh March, April, and maybe even uh early May. But uh really ever since the the president uh backed off or postponed his Liberation Day tariffs on April 2nd, the he announced them on April 9th, he postponed them.
And now we've got a hard deadline of August 1st. And we're getting some deals, but we certainly didn't get 90 deals, 90 deals in 90 days. That that did not happen. And some of these deals that we have so far look more like frameworks than not. Uh but the stock market has concluded that maybe the US economy uh is resilient enough to withstand all the volatility and uncertainty that's coming out of Washington on tariffs.
And maybe the same thing seems to apply to the to the global economy. Uh all in all, the global economy has held up pretty well despite all the turmoil about tariffs. This doesn't look like Smooth Holly. You know, the 1930s tariff that brought the global economy down. And I think maybe that's because economies are stronger.
They're more servicesoriented. Tariffs are usually put on on goods, not on services. Uh but when you put it all together, I think uh the stock markets around the world, but particularly in the United States, are discounting what I've been calling since the beginning of the decade the roaring 2020s. I think there's a lot of focus on technological innovation and how that's going to increase productivity.
Uh let's face it, there's a lot of excitement about artificial intelligence everywhere around the world. Everybody wants to suddenly build uh these uh data centers. Uh I think some of that's going to turn out to be hype. Some of that may turn out to be leading to over capacity. But for now, it's uh happy days are here again.
Yeah, absolutely. So Ed, what does that indicate about which way money is going to move in? And do you think uh it continues to be US first and then emerging markets or is there a tactical shift there? Well, uh, I've been, uh, very, uh, focused on overweighting the US since 2010, and it's worked out really, really well.
Uh, not so far, not earlier this year, but now it looks as though uh, maybe it the US again looks like it's uh, winning relative to other countries. Look, it's not that hard to uh underweight the United States and overweight the rest of the world because the United States accounts for 70% of the market capitalization of stock markets around the world.
So if you feel uncomfortable with that and you want to only put 65% in and and therefore overweight the rest of the world that that's fine if you can find the opportunities and I think there are opportunities including India of course which has already done remarkably well uh but but all in all I think um you know we're looking at um a situation where investors are getting a little bit uh excited here uh maybe too excited but u I'm I'm looking for bull bear ratios uh to get to the point where there's just too many bulls.
We're not quite there yet, but we could get there very quickly. All right, but Ed, uh how do you assess the current sentiment shaping up for the global auto uh sector as a whole? Because we just had the earnings from Tesla, which was once again a miss. Uh this whole US and Japan deal that is through that bodess well for the Japanese uh auto sector.
And now there's a charter of that US EU deal as well. How do you see the sentiment for the global auto sector as as of now? Well, I I think that uh sentiment certainly improved overnight in Japan. We saw those stocks doing very well. On the other hand, GM has been hurt by to the tune of a billion dollars by Trump's tariffs.
And um you know, we've really yet to really see these tariffs settle in. There's still uncertainty about exactly what they're going to be, but that uncertainty will be gone presumably within uh a couple of weeks. We'll know exactly what the tariffs are. And I think the auto industry is still going to be challenged.
Look, I I I look at it as a long-term issue. The the real long-term issue for autos is we're going to have autonomous uh cars. We're going to have cars that drive themselves. And then the question is, what's the point of owning a car uh if you can get uh access to uh cars that'll take you anywhere any time of the day?
What's the point of having your own car parked in the parking lot of your work and or in the garage at night? On the other hand, if you want to make some money, you can buy a car and uh m make a autonomous taxi out of it. Uh so there's a lot of uh challenges here but we may not need as many cars as we have out there if uh we can all just use an app to call a car.
Right. Right. So that's the view coming in on the entire global autopace. On that note, thanks so much for joining us. We like you. Thanks.
Comments 0