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Hey, welcome back to "Two Super Hawk Guys." I'm Dylan and I'm Vinny. And welcome back, my fellow Alibaba shareholders , bag owners, or just people who enjoy watching the pain we're going through here. Um, you know, it's nice to have company. But in any case, we'll talk about a couple of negative news stories that recently appeared about Alibaba shares.
As if we weren't beaten enough already, there are even more of us. This is unfortunate. I'll actually take the blame for this, Vinnie. Um, because the day before it dropped, I bought another 30,000. Yeah. Um, it's my fault, guys. I just... Yeah, it's 100% Dylan's fault. I've been saying this all this time.
He is actually secretly the leader of the CCP. Here's what's happening. Dude, it's still brutal to be down 40% year-to-date on one of your positions. This definitely hurts. I would be interested to see how my portfolio compares to the overall market right now. I haven't checked lately. Um, you know.
Yes. Well, that's terrible because my deal with AMD is the worst deal I've ever had. I...This is going to be my worst year in decades. Yes. Sorry. Um, I have n't bought anything else yet. I'm still thinking about it, but like other companies whose shares are getting a little cheaper right now , Meta, Google.
So I'm keeping a close eye on the situation, but I haven't decided to buy more yet. Um, you know, a terrible week of a 10% drop. Well, was there any news? Yes. Yes, there was news. This…This is so funny now, man, because in the age of artificial intelligence, there are all these articles about AI. They are indeed annoying and irritating, but there is a grain of truth in them .
This is what the computer understands and what happens, right? Um, basically a decline largely due to increasing pressure from geopolitical risks and scrutiny from investment regulators. I mean, they're not wrong, right ? Theoretically, this is the essence of what is happening here. How true this is, I don't know.
Um, but theoretically, that's what they're looking at. They found themselves embroiled in this geopolitical trade war again. We'll talk a little about what has changed recently in this regard and why it's important. And then there's another piece of news that came out...Okay. Let's say the previous one...
you couldn't say that about any bad day in the last five years. So it seems vague. Yes, because it's true. But yes, those were negative sentiments. Um , yes, you can say that too. This is true of everything that falls, everything that is red. Um, so now Alibaba is fighting a legal war. Okay . Um, legal assistance, um, legal action with the US government regarding this designation as an agent of the Chinese military.
You know this military blacklist, right? So, while being on this list itself doesn't directly affect the company, for example, there's no such thing as "you're on the list, therefore a, b, and c happen, and you lose," right? It's not quite that simple, but it has some negative, uh, implications for business in the future, uh, in terms of regulatory regulation, in terms of, uh, lobbying, um, and any pursuit of, for example, contracts with the US.
This could limit Pentagon contracts and lobbying support. Uh, so it doesn't, like, officially do anything in that regard, but it does make them less likely to compete in that area. Let's be honest, I don't think the Pentagon is going to hire Alibaba's cloud services anytime soon, but that's something that could be a problem in the future, right?
So, this really confused me because I read this. I thought prices dropped 10% after this news. 10%–that's, I mean, that's a lot. 106 to 94. So I thought, okay, something must be happening. Obviously, these are two things. You are going to talk about something else . Yes. But that doesn't make sense, because no one has ever considered using Alibaba's cloud over any other US-based cloud.
It was never even discussed. Yes. No, no company has done this. I had, so, yes, I completely agree with that . The only scenario I can imagine is that the US decides we're going to go ahead and just drop like a C130 full of rubber ducks all over Iran. I mean, in that case, Donald Trump can go to Alibaba to buy these rubber ducks.
This is the best scenario I can imagine. That's fair, you know, but beyond that, there are so many other US-based cloud companies that are leading providers. I'm in Alibaba because of the market in China, not because of some American company, it means nothing to me. So I agree, but it's important to say that they filed this lawsuit in the state of California to help themselves get themselves off this list.
They believed they had been unfairly passed over and were included in this list. We'll see how this court case unfolds. It won't have any immediate impact, but it's something to watch in terms of the legal battle between, you know, this private company in China that we're investing in and the U.S. government.
So this should be monitored. OK. So it's more about the potential consequences of them being banned from contracting with the Pentagon and being restricted from lobbying. Not a big deal, but it's kind of like what I said I would sue. Of course. I think that's a much more important question, don't you think ?
Um, so Anthropic, uh, basically said that their AI, uh, you know, claw bot, organized by Alibaba, was attacked where they're actually trying to steal the system, which is, actually, the core intellectual property that Alibaba is attacking, which is pretty wild. So I know how, because I was also confused by this .
Yes. Um, I'm trying to figure out if this is normal. So this distillation attack is basically where they accuse Alibaba of having multiple fake accounts and ask the anthropic claw model to understand what its responses would be to different cues, and their model, which is now learning from, uh, Claude, instills that knowledge into itself.
She just photocopies them. How is that illegal? Well, I don't know about illegal. This is immoral, isn't it? Theoretically, what? Okay, let's stick to this immoral phrase. How did Anthropic get the data to then train Claude? I mean, they paid for it, right ? turn it off, because Gemini, Chat, GBT, and Claude essentially admitted, "Yes, no , we stole absolutely everything on the internet." So I completely understand you.
Essentially, this is saying that it bypasses the billions of dollars spent on the original, well, you know, creation of the model. I didn't realize that these AIs, like, well, I don't want to say algorithms, but ultimately, AI algorithms were so vulnerable to theft by simply asking them. I mean, I'm sure it's a lot more complicated than that, but it's interesting, like you put this model online and then people can access it whether they violate the terms of the agreement or not.
Uh, and then you can get enough knowledge from your model to reproduce it. Not as good as the original, but good enough. Yes. I don't see it, maybe someone explained it a little better in the comments . I just don't see how this could be a problem when the entire product was also stolen data. So that's what attracts me, like, Sam Allman's interview with YouTube, where you can't use YouTube for learning.
They did a whole lot of work on this. He asked, "Did you guys use it ?" We answered: " Next question: yes , we used it." You stole absolutely everything ." You, and now you're trying to trademark companies, and it's like, " Well, you guys actually have to reach out to us and tell us if you want us to use any of your trademarked characters, like Pokemon or something ." You actually have to contact us and we may answer, we may not.
We are not sure. So, let's... I mean a few things, like thoughts on this. Um, I think what struck me the most was how all these companies are now valued at trillion dollars in artificial intelligence. If your models are so vulnerable that they can be stolen as soon as you make them publicly available, then why should I pay a trillion dollars for your company when I can just steal what you produce?
You said they're essentially just asking Claude and 10,000 accounts a bunch of requests to rebuild it. So they use exactly what they pay Claude for. By the way, this is not against the rules. I'm sure it violates their... Okay, cool. Yes, I'm sure this violates the user agreement. I completely understand.
Hmm, but that definitely reduces the amount of money I would be willing to pay for, you know, a big AI model company, right? No, thank you. I'll need someone to explain to me in the comments how this is different from how it was originally founded. But I mean, I don't see that here. I do n't understand.
I don't understand what the problem is. I would think they would expect honesty from every competitor, right? Of course. The same applies to all products in capitalism. Literally every product that someone puts out with Dr. Pepper, they say, “Okay, we have a competitor. " Okay, let's create Mr. Pip." This is how capitalism works.
You find a great product, try to do everything you can to replicate or improve it. Yes. Well, okay, make it something substantially similar. I understand. I find it funny that Alibaba shares have fallen so much. If they managed to pull the claw out, it should have been a net gain for their company. I mean theft in theory, but you know, it's funny that it was so negative.
Imagine they filed a complaint with the US government. I'm not sure which regulatory body this would involve and what tools they have at their disposal to punish Alibaba if they find this to be true. At the moment, this is unclear to me. But that accusation was enough to send the stock down about 10%.
Much. What do you think, uh, I'll say Alibaba is similar to Meta in the sense that a little negative story catapults it down for some strange reason. That's right. This is interesting. What would happen if Chat GPT did this as a US company? It's anthropogenic because I guarantee you they are exactly the same.
For example, they... maybe it's just a problem for Chinese companies. I'm sure they all have copies of each other's models everywhere so they can understand it and, you know, build on their next generation, even from a competitive perspective, to be able to compare the performance of their model to yours.
For example, I'm sure they often access each other's things. Yes. Good. Let us know. I clearly misunderstand why this is a problem. So please let me know what you guys think. Yes. Negative news. Negative news. Baba buys or sells. Away. What are you doing, Vinnie? Yes. It falls five percent on a day when there is no news.
So I'm interested in buying more. I just have n't pulled the trigger yet. Yes. Um, if you're ever interested in buying anything else, just ask if I'm going to buy something and do it in about a week. Yes, that's probably a solid plan. Yes. Take mine.
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