저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
패시브 투자(인덱스 펀드) 확산이 주식시장 버블을 키우고 있다는 마이클 버리의 우려를 정리한 영상. [핵심 주장] 마이클 버리는 현재가 2000년 닷컴 버블과 유사하며, 패시브 투자 확산으로 개별 기업의 펀더멘털과 무관하게 주가가 과도하게 오르는 버블이 형성되었다고 봄. 2019년 블룸버그 인터뷰에서도 패시브 투자가 가격 발견 기능을 약화시킨다고 주장함. [근거 수치] 블룸버그 인텔리전스 조사에서 패시브 상품이 개별 기업 주식의 평균 20% 이상을 보유하는 것으로 나타났고, 2003년에는 약 3.3% 수준이었음. S&P500 인덱스 펀드는 장기적으로 연 약 10% 수준의 수익률을 보여왔다고 언급. [시장 메커니즘 설명] 주가는 수급으로 움직이며, 패시브 자금이 일시에 이탈하면 주가 폭락이 발생할 수 있음. 극장 화재 비유로 설명하며, 패시브 자금이 동시에 현금화하면 모든 구성 종목이 함께 하락할 수 있다고 경고. [반론 근거] 밴가드 자료에 따르면 ETF 거래의 약 94%가 발행시장이 아닌 유통시장에서 이루어져 기초자산 거래에 직접 영향이 적음. 블랙록 2017년 분석에서도 애플 사례 기준 주식 거래량의 최소 95%가 ETF 자금 흐름과 직접 관련이 없었음. [결론 및 전망] 버리는 향후 수년 내 주식시장 붕괴를 예상하며, 다음 대형 하락장에서 패시브 자금 이탈이 큰 역할을 할 것으로 봄. 영상은 이 전망의 가능성에 대해 시청자 의견을 묻는 형식으로 마무리. [종목 및 방향] 특정 개별 종목에 대한 매수·매도 추천은 없음. 시장 전반(S&P500 등 인덱스 구성 종목)에 대해 버블 우려 및 하락 가능성을 언급하였으나 구체적 목표가나 기간은 제시되지 않음. [출연자 전망] 진행자는 중립적 입장에서 버리의 주장을 소개하고 반론 자료를 함께 제시함. 버리 본인의 전망은 장기 하락 우려에 가까움.
다듬은 글
what if I told you that a big stock market bubble may be being fueled by the well-known Market monitoring Index Fund Michael Berry a renowned investor recently stated that on Twitter quote difference between now and 2000 also known as the.com crash is the passive investing bubble that inflated steadily over the last decade all theaters are overcrowded and the only way anyone can get out of this is by trembling each other and the door is only so big but what does he mean by that and might the seemingly benign Market monitoring Index Fund possibly bring the stock market to its knees let's find out shall we just to refresh your memory buying a market tracking Index Fund is effectively buying a stock that symbolizes Market diversification for instance sby and S P 500 Index Fund is the largest Index Fund in the world as a result purchasing shares in sby will really provide investors a very small ownership state in the largest 500 corporations in the United States and the underlying notion is that by investing in the market you will eventually earn a return equivalent to that of the market in the long run S P 500 generates a return that according to history is not too bad roughly 10 per year as well as due to the strategy Simplicity and ease of implementation not to mention it's incredibly impressive historical annual return it's become very common in recent years for people to engage in passive investing according to a recent survey by Bloomberg intelligence passive instruments held an average of more than 20 percent of the shares of each firm and the s p 500.
in 2003 passive structures held about 3.3 percent of the market depending on the circumstances and given these figures it is now being questioned whether the market would benefit from passive investment becoming so dominant it's definitely a matter for a concern according to Michael Ferry though recently noting the bubble in passive investing on Twitter it's interesting to note that in reality he has brought up the subject before in fact he had an email interview with Bloomberg on the subject in 2019 and highlighted quote that passive investing has eliminated price Discovery from the equities markets the simple thesis and models that get people into sectors factors indexes or ETFs and mutual funds mimicking those strategies do not require the security level analysis that is required for True price Discovery this means that as passive investment becomes popular this will happen over time an increasing number of shares of these large corporations are being kept by investors only for index purposes and not because they truly enjoy the company and over time this causes stock values to excessively rise share purchases are no longer only based on how well these companies are performing on a fundamental level because they are in the proper index it is actually being driven and it is a bubble right there one in which assets price increases for a factor unrelated to its overall performance therefore the concern is whether the growing acceptance of passive investment could lead to a bubble that if investors began to do so in large numbers could endanger the stability of the market in any case the solution isn't clear as usual as an illustration let's go through how stock prices truly fluctuate I mean it's pretty clear that supply and demand determines how the price of a stock moves therefore if many people want to acquire shares but few are willing to sell the stock price will increase conversely the stock price will decrease if there are suddenly many investors attempting to sell but view purchasers currently each stock has a normal daily trading volume also known as the daily average number of shares traded and one thing to keep in mind about daily volume is that stock prices don't actually fluctuate all that much and less daily volume is suddenly greatly Disturbed however occasionally there might be such a torrent volume seeking to get out that it can quickly destroy the stock price like in the case of a market crash and widespread selling although there won't be many buyers there will be a lot of Sellers as a result until additional buyers arrive to mediate the situation the price will be set by the player who is seeking to escape in the most desperate State when Michael Berry claims that everyone must shove past one another to leave a cinema because it is so crowded he is referring to this situation however the door can only opened so far this is a nod to an old stock market illustration that explains daily trade activity as an illustration imagine that there are 100 people at a movie theater with a sole rule that if you want to leave you must find someone to take your place as a result under normal circumstances someone will typically wish to enter and watch a movie however what would happen if the theater caught fire unexpectedly a hundred individuals would be frantically attempting to escape however there weren't many people eager to enter the burning Cinema and watch the film Michael Berry is concerned that will transpire in the stock market according to him if conditions worsened further many passive investors would attempt to exit the market and return to cash but if everyone does this in a panic stock values will plunge and the unfortunate fact is that when things go wrong solitary firms typically experience this however what would occur if all of the passive investors who as you are aware earn a little portion of everything decided to quit at once it crashes everything I suppose the effect will be the same for every stock in the index but there is a single component despite the fact that there is a lot of trading activity going on in and out of these passive funds there isn't a lot of trading going on in the underlying companies that comprise the index as the other side of that coin how is it possible well the majority of ETF share trading occurs on the secondary Market or in other words its passive investor is simply exchanging back and forth with one another in fact three years ago Ben Felix did a fantastic video on this subject so I want to give him a massive shout out for it he cites two really intriguing pieces of proof in that video the first comes from Vanguard and displays the proportion of ETF trading that either takes place on the secondary Market or that really affects the amount of trade in the underlying Securities 94 of the transactions they discovered took place on the secondary Market to put it another way 94 of the ETF trading volume or the positions of the underlying stock that comprise the ATF did not even touch them what happens though if there is sudden large-scale buying or selling of an ETF in those circumstances ETF units are issued or destroyed which results in trading in the equities that make up the ETF however it's important to note that even when you take into account creation and Redemption as usual activity a BlackRock analysis from 2017 demonstrate that this is still a relatively minor portion of all trading in actuality they discuss a case involving Apple which at the time was the biggest corporation in the world they observed that in July 2017 quote a month which saw the large inflows to ETFs 65 0.9 billion of Apple stock was traded although Apple was held by 331 ETFs globally we found that at least 95 percent of stocks trading volume in July 2017 was not directly related to ETF Flows In other words despite the fact that ETFs have been growing markets share over the past three decades they have had very little impact on the tree reading volumes of the underlying Securities they hold however is there a chance that Barry is still right Michael Berry in all honesty believes that the stock market will collapse within the next few years as a result it's a very intriguing Viewpoint that prompts you to wonder how these larger index stocks with smaller cap sizes will fare if many passive investors leave the market during the next major downturn normally when a minor firm is eventually added to the index we applaud however this is an intriguing case where index inclusion may not be such a victory however having said that please do share your opinions with me regarding the likelihood that passive investment vehicles will play a significant role in the next major stock market Panic if you enjoyed the video click the like button and if you want to see more join the channel foreign
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