저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거는 연준의 대규모 통화 공급이 인플레이션을 키웠지만, 연준이 개입하지 않았다면 상황이 더 나빴을 것이므로 연준을 높이 평가한다. 연준이 인플레이션을 잡기 위해 금리를 급격히 올리면 경기침체가 올 수 있으나, 이는 감수할 만한 비용이라고 본다. 2020년 대규모 실업 상황보다 지금 일자리가 있을 때 침체를 겪는 편이 낫다는 논리다. 가상화폐에 대해서는 강하게 비판한다. 블록체인 기술 자체에는 장점이 있지만 이를 이용한 투기와 사기성 프로모션이 문제이며, 유명인이 이를 홍보하는 것은 큰 실수라고 지적한다. 대중이 '핫한' 투자에 무조건 뛰어드는 현상을 경계하며, 가치투자자도 자신의 역량 범위를 벗어난 투자를 해서는 안 된다고 강조한다. 가상화폐 기업들의 붕괴는 내재가치 없이 가격만 형성된 구조에서 예견된 결과라는 분석이다. 과거 모기지담보증권 사례를 언급하며 좋은 아이디어도 과도하게 밀어붙이면 파국을 부른다고 경고한다. 멍거의 가상화폐 비판은 자주 '늙은이의 무지'로 치부되지만, 그의 주장은 꾸준히 옳았다는 것이 영상의 시각이다. 본 영상의 예측은 주로 거시·시장 평가에 머문다. 개별 종목·지수에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시적으로 없다.
다듬은 글
every deal it's hot and they don't care whether it's child prostitution or Bitcoin Charlie Munger is back though and he's bringing the Heat CNBC where he discussed inflation the Federal Reserves excessive money printing a predicted recession in 2023 and you guessed it the death of cryptocurrency as value investors this is actually incredibly exciting Charlie is basically a legend so that makes sense however it's also thrilling since at 98 or older he hardly ever appears in the media these days save from The Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting or in the past the Daily Journal shareholder meeting in this video Let's examine Charlie's current views on the economy and his predictions for the not too distant future the Federal Reserve is where he bases his judgments and it's funny that Charlie doesn't precisely share the same bad opinion despite the fact that many content creators have been critical of America's Central Bank over the past well let's say a year or so I basically like the existence of a fan I think in a world of diet currencies we need wide central banks and I think we've had pretty good people in it trying to be contributors to civilization if you look at Japan today you would find the central bank has made our Central Bank of the a little mouse that hardly tries to do anything so we've learned that central banks can be really important you can push them to Great access if you have to in enough trouble so by and large I like Central bankers and by and large I hate Bitcoin promoters it's fascinating to see Charlie's positive opinion of the Central Bank especially given that the Federal Reserve may have contributed to the recent severe inflation that is now clearly hurting Everyone by creating approximately 4 trillion new US dollars in recent years he goes on to detail why he supports the Fed so strongly and this is a topic that is sometimes overlooked do you worry about the FED creating a recession by slamming on the brakes too hard well I think the vet is willing to have a little recession in order not to have under control inflation that's what they're supposed to do they're supposed to be the one guy at the party that doesn't hang around the one punch girl and getting drunk although a lot of people say they're the ones who provided the punch bowl well I think that's pushing it besides I think we were in enough trouble when this thing started it's a vet hadn't done what it it was very aggressive it would have had one hell of a mess which would have been way worse than what we have now so as Becky notes a lot of people contend that the FED provided the punch bowl I.E they printed all that extra money Charlie though is quick to point out that if they hadn't done that the economic situation would have been far worse than it is right now I believe that so much has changed over the past previous few years that it's almost difficult to recall a time when 15 of Americans were unemployed When lines at food banks stretch for miles and families all over the nation were rapidly exhausting their funds due to being cooped up because of this Charlie undoubtedly sees things more leniently and believes that what the FED did in 2020 was somewhat necessary even though we find it amusing to connect to drone power and if it means a recession in say the upcoming year so be it it's preferable to have one now while everyone at least has a job than to experience a severe recession in 2020 when everyone is in a difficult situation and of course the fed's activities over the past few years also gave rise to the increasingly fervent criticism that Fiat money is dying and that cryptocurrencies will instead be the next big thing well again is that I'm pains me that in my own country I see people that were sponsored garbage reputable people helping these things exist promoting their use and so forth this is a very very bad thing there are people who think they just gotta be on every deal that's hot and they don't care whether it's child prostitution or Bitcoin if it's hot they want to be Inland I think that's totally crazy reputation is very helpful in financial life and to destroy your reputation by associating with scumballs and there's Gumball promotions a huge mistake do you think those companies did any due diligence or what happened I think they actually mean well though that you're seeing a lot of delusion it's partly Broad and partly delusion that's a bad combination like either fraud or delusion and the delusion may be more extreme than the Frog delusion how so nobody's gonna have been a new thing that every 12 year old kid can be a billionaire or something he just calls it mongercoin he starts treading it or something it's it's crazy it's demented it's insanely intriguing how Charlie here targets significant individuals who allegedly heavily invested in cryptocurrency initiatives and Enterprises rather than just those who bought cryptocurrency and here he brings up an extremely important issue that he will later bring up several times in the interview many investing firms have been severely taken off guard by the sudden demise of cryptocurrencies and cryptocurrency exchange businesses in the last 12 months however they shouldn't really have been because from the beginning everyone was aware that cryptocurrencies lack intrinsic worth they do however have imputed value and we also know that most of these cryptocurrencies see exchange businesses have had incredibly ponzi-like success now that I'm a value investor with an endless number of strikes against me it will be simple to just let things go and that's exactly what all the value investors I like did however it's absurd how some value investors including well-known ones feel that they must participate in every trade and misprofit in every circumstance in Charlie's opinion those who bought into the illusion and promise of returns without stopping to consider what they were actually purchasing are the ones who should be most upset with him because in my opinion this is a very risky mindset to have when investing because it also takes you outside of your area of expertise and oddly he believes that the reason this got so far is simply that there is a lot of Merit behind the cryptocurrencies blockchain technology the argument that blockchain is different that blockchain is something that businesses and industries can build on it is that's what sucks people in and by the way that reminds me of Ben Graham he said you're good ideas okay you want to have more trouble in your bad ideas now it sounds for every peculiar well what he meant is the thing is basically a good idea meaning it's a good contribution to mathematics or something but you've got a good idea it's much easier to push that to wretched access of course it's always going to be some good idea nobody's going to say I've got some I want to sell you I've been blockchain is a new good thing to come up like fairy dust the same can be said of mortgage-backed Securities they initially seemed like a brilliant solution to securitize mortgages safely but over the years they were pushed to such terrible excess that they ultimately caused the collapse of the whole global economy in 2008.
however Every Time Charlie opposes cryptocurrencies he is dismissed as a simple old man who doesn't understand it those are Charlie's arguments from his most recent CNBC interview I think it's vital to always keep that in mind but in any case please let me know what you think in the comment section below if you enjoyed the video like it and subscribe if you want to see more I'll see you in the next one
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