저자: Kevin · 외국인
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댈러스 연은 총재 카플란이 금융시장의 과열(높은 주가, 좁은 신용스프레드, 급등하는 집값)을 지적하고 테이퍼링을 예상보다 일찍 논의해야 한다고 발언. 파월 의장은 인플레이션을 일시적으로 보는 입장이라 연준 내부 시각차가 드러남. 카플란은 2022년 금리 인상 필요성을 언급하고, 실업률이 연말 4%까지 떨어질 위험과 공급 병목·임금 압력으로 인한 장기 인플레이션 가능성을 제기. 유튜버는 성장주·고PER 종목 약세와 공매도 증가를 언급하며 향후 6개월 변동성이 클 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here the president of the dallas federal reserve just had some not so great things to say about the markets he said quote we are now at a point where i'm observing excesses and imbalances in financial markets suggesting specifically that we have historically elevated stock prices tight credit spreads and surging home prices this was during a virtual appearance at a montgomery area chamber of commerce event now this is an issue because the more you start having the federal reserve going hmm maybe it is time for us to start tapering sooner than we expected the more pressure grows on chairman of the federal reserve jerome powell to actually do just that now jerome powell just the other day suggested hey don't worry this was wednesday don't worry we're gonna hold through all this inflation all the inflation that's happening is just because of the way we do our math year over year math and anything else don't worry it's just temporary it's because of supply chain issues there's no real inflation don't mind that we just printed a whole lot of money we don't think there's going to be inflation now i'm you know partially inclined to believe that inflation will go down in the longer run starting hopefully in september through october so i still am consistent with my beliefs but the way this sort of incongruence between folks at the fed is starting to sound is starting to sound like maybe discussions at the fed aren't as unanimous as we might think they are in fact president kaplan goes on to say quote i do think at the earliest opportunity it would be appropriate for us to start talking about adjusting those 120 billion dollars in monthly bond purchases as well as obviously low interest rates so kaplan is uh something to know he's not a voting member of the fomc the federal open market committee that's the committee that actually votes on whether or not we are going to raise rates however he is a president of the dallas fed and this right here is topo chico it's pretty delicious not sponsored i wish i was but anyway uh yeah i mean that's that's a problem because just wednesday you had jerome powell say it's way too soon to even talk about talking about well good thing kaplan isn't part of your fomc meetings kind of makes you wonder why is kaplan not part of your fomc meetings but maybe that's too jaded anyway kind of makes you wonder if he's not part of the meetings then if he were we'd probably already be talking about tapering because he would be there talking about it it's kind of interesting and it's very opposite of what jerome powell said on a wednesday and uh kaplan went on and according to reuters here he went on to reiterate his expectation that the fed will need to start raising rates next year that's 2020 more than a year earlier than most of his fed colleagues anticipate yeah and if we look at the dot plot of what fed colleagues are saying in terms of when we might see interest rates go up most of them see interest rates ticking up in 2023 with a longer run interest rate level somewhere between two and two and a half percent at 20 20 20 or sorry 2024 and beyond now kaplan was asked well wait a minute i mean jerome powell says we have to hit substantial further progress and he says look the thing is that substantial further progress might come way earlier than we even thought a few months ago and he believes there is risk that unemployment will fall to four percent by the year end now that sounds odd because i just said risk that unemployment will basically be really low that's obviously a very good thing so what he means is there's upside risk in other words it's good if unemployment goes really really low because it means the economy is doing so dang well but it does mean there is a risk of us raising rates sooner than expected which quite frankly is something that many people on wall street have been believing and preparing for this is why we're seeing so many shorts in the market right now so many hedgies taking profits and spending less money on some of our favorite names it's unfortunate but basically anything you've bought since january that has a high earnings multiple or is a growth or spat company has kind of been getting spanked now on next wednesday we will be getting unemployment data so all eyes will be on that unemployment data release of course i'll be live streaming the release as soon as it happens at 5 30 in the morning but when asked about inflation kaplan did say that he expects inflation to be very high in the next few months specifically because of base effects but he also said that a lot of the pop of this inflation could go away in the fourth quarter which would be october november december but he doesn't go as far as saying that all of the inflation we're seeing right now is transitory and he believes that there are longer lasting strains of inflation and it's not just supply shortages but it's also because you already have material prices that are higher and potential labor shortages on top of all the consumer spending and government spending that's going on so let's say for a moment you get rid of the base effects which those will be gone in about three months we don't have to worry about even hearing base effects anymore that'll be gone comparing to the bat of 2020 will be gone then supply chain issues those will resolve themselves but it's entirely possible and this is an argument that's being made on wall street now that what if what if we get to on it like we get to unemployment levels at four percent so freaking fast that all of a sudden companies are like oh crap we all of a sudden thought there weren't enough workers all the unemployment benefits expired everybody got back to work but wait a minute we still need a whole lot more people we still can't keep up well that could be a cause or a reason for potentially even longer lasting and larger inflation so this is a little bit of a very um i would say well a little bit in very i would say this is let's just call it what it is it's a contrarian argument at the fed it echoes what a lot of us see and believe in the markets and yeah it is nice to hear him say that look we're going to see inflation taper down towards the end of the year september october has been my opinion his is the fourth quarter that's great i'm excited for that i'm curious to see what will happen with cryptocurrencies at the time i'm also interested to see what will happen with growth stocks at the time but at what level will they fall to and that's still the big mystery now kaplan given that he's talking about wanting to raise rates sooner than everybody else and paper sooner than everybody else seems like he's starting to get a little bit more nervous that we might end up with a little bit more lasting inflation than everyone is expecting but this is a bombshell from just today treasury yields on the 10-year up cryptocurrencies are up and folks buckle up like i said the next six months are gonna be one heck of a ride thanks so much for watching if you enjoy this content and perspective may 5th for the
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