저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 윌리엄스의 '저금리 시대 미종결' 발언을 근거로 장기적으로 금리 하락(잠재적 마이너스 금리)을 전망하며 부동산 투자에 유리하다고 주장. 트럼프의 리사 쿡 해임 소식을 전하며 9월 5일 고용지표와 9일 QCEW 수정치를 주목하라 함. 단기적으로 채권과 일부 매매에 악재, 엔비디아 실적 전 변동성 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
There are three critical things going on with the Federal Reserve and you need to know about all three of these. Number one, we need to talk about what Williams just said about effectively the low neutral rate era not being over. This is a gamecher for investing. Number two, we got to talk about Donald Trump just fired Lisa Cook.
Just fired somebody at the Fed. It's actually a big deal. Uh then we're going to talk about the two catalysts, September 5th and 9th. And though neither of those are a coupon expiration date, let's get started. First things first. All right. Donald Trump, and this is surprising to me because Kevin Hasset was really impressed with what Jerome Powell did at Jackson Hole this morning.
He said what Jerome Pal said was sound. And that made me think, oh, right, maybe the White House is finally happy with the Fed and we don't have to worry about questioning Federal Reserve uh independents and go in there and start firing people or suing Powell. So, I thought we'd get over this. Apparently, that is wrong.
Uh, and Donald Trump has just fired Alisa Cook. Now, quick reminder, remember what happened with Lisa Cook? She applied for two owner occupied mortgages in 2021 within weeks of each other. Okay? Occupancy fraud is what they're going for. She bought a condo on July 21st, but before that, 14 days before that, uh she ended up uh well, that's when it closed.
So, her loan signing dates were a little bit before that, but anyway, 14 days before that, she ended up taking a loan in Michigan as a primary residence. So, she bought a condo in Atlanta and before that refinanced a Michigan property. The Michigan refinance indicated here that the University of Michigan credit union was going to give her a $23,000 note due in 15 years with an occupancy requirement.
But we also looked that the Atlanta condo, which was bought for $62,000, was later listed for rent a year later. So theoretically, she could have lived there for a year. you have a one-year occupancy restriction, but uh that was financed with 10% down. Now, is it possible that she had some kind of agreement that maybe this was a second home or the lenders knew that she had a primary residence in two different places?
Maybe. Lisa Cook has said she will come out with documentation to evidence that she didn't do anything wrong. That said, Mr. PE is running flack for Donald Trump going US federal housing statement on the firing of Lisa Cook. Thank you, President Trump, for your commitment to stopping mortgage fraud and following the law.
If you commit mortgage fraud in America, we will come after you no matter who you are. William PE, with of course the exception of Donald Trump, which yes, I know victimless crime, but let's just be clear when you misstate the square footages of your properties. It does certainly raise a red flag in terms of maybe there was there were some shenanigans going on here, especially around valuations, not not just Mara Lago, but the other ones.
We know Mar logo that was way undervalued. But like it's rich, right? But then again, my goal here is to piss everybody off cuz if you're MAGA or you're a a Democrat or you're in the middle, I want to piss everyone off cuz I'm tired of this. I got seven kids and I got a lot going on. I don't got time for this crap.
So, I'm just going to give you the bottom lines. If it pisses you off, good. Then I'm doing my job. So, uh, you know, that's Bill PE again. You know, he's running cover for Donnie T. Not a surprise. Donnie T sends a stern letter saying basically I'm authorized by Congress to fire you. You signed uh it is inconceivable you were not aware of your first commitment when making the second commitment.
Is impossible that you intended to honor both. We'll go through a little bit of this in more in just a moment, but we have a couple more things to talk about which are important. We like the details of that letter. I don't want to bore you with that. We really need to talk about this and the two catalyst states.
But because so much of this is going to have to do with real estate, not only this mortgage fraud with this lady, but also this neutral rate environment and how good it is for real estate, this is the perfect I could not think of better opportunity to pitch turboen. You may have heard that being a landlord can be risky.
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Unlimited doors, $149 per year. Just click the link down below. Give it a shot. See if it jives with your landlord business. Click the link down below in the description. So, thanks Turbo Tenant. But look, Fed Williams says the no low neutral interest rate era is not over. Now, why does this matter?
Well, because remember we've gone through 40 years of the great moderation, basically declining interest rates in the United States. Why does that matter? Because in my opinion, in the 2030s, probably by 2032, in my opinion, we will probably the next recession, frankly, we will probably have interest rates that are lower than they've ever been before.
I think we are going to go back to negative interest rates. Now, a lot of people think I'm crazy for saying that, but they also thought that inflation wasn't going to settle back down to 2% and that's what we've been going to. Of course, now we have inflation from tariffs, which is temporarily blowing up the balloon again.
But that's okay. We will eventually go back to 2%. I'm not even going to be worried about 2%. We will eventually be below 2% again, which is great because a normalization in rates means interest rates on houses come down, which means people can pay more for assets. Home values go up. Great for house hack.
My real estate startup. Yeah, I'm biased, baby. I want my real estate startup to boom even more than it already is with what we're doing with not only buying wedge deals. We're buying again by the way. We just opened three escros in a matter of like a week, less than that. Uh on top of that, our AI is blowing up to where now we're looking into the Blackwell 6000s or potentially just getting a few 5U uh server rack uh you know, eight GPU stacks straight from like super micro computer or something.
Shout out to Super Micro computer. enjoyed talking to you on the phone today. Um, so what's really interesting, so this is this is great for House Hack, mind you, but it's also great for you because you should know the era of low interest rates will be coming back and it'll probably be ushered in by the next recession.
But this idea that lately people have been talking about, oh, our star is higher, the neutral rate of interest is higher, interest rates are going to higher. I totally disagree. I actually think that great moderation is just going to continue. And when you look at the great moderation, look at uh you could just look at FOMC or or or look at inflation rates St.
Louis Fred and we'll go to inflation. Uh let's grab a a chart going all the way back. You've got to go not off the index level. You look at percent change from a year ago. Go to the annual chart. Uh we'll get an annual average here. There we go. So what you could see here is this is the period of the great moderation.
Uh and to really understand this you kind of you take a picture of it. You drop it on drop it onto your desktop and then you can draw the lines. You all know me and the lines. Okay. Some say meet Kevin is the best at the lines. One of the greatests. You know even the haters say Kevin is great at the lines.
You know if even the haters are saying it. Anyway, this is the great moderation, right? So, you go down from this uncontrolled no Federal Reserve independence, which is key, by the way. This is an era of no Federal Reserve independence. When you've got presidents around basically with the Federal Reserve, you end up getting lower growth uh inflation shocks and problems.
That's what you had over here. Arthur Burns had no respect. That's why we had this inflation crisis. Paul Vulkar put the pants on at the Federal Reserve again and he got us this 40 years of disinflation basically. That trend is likely to continue and then in a decade from now we will look back and go, "Oh, the COVID blip was basically over here." If we get back on that trend, oh my gosh, dude, we're going to be looking at 30-year mortgages at some point at like 1.2% just like you've seen in Europe.
It's great. So that's a fantastic thing for asset owners. It's terrible if you don't own assets. If you don't ass don't own assets, you need to get with the program. I mean, you could invest in house hack if you want. Go to house hack.com, read the solicitation and ppm. I got to talk about the two catalyst dates by the way before you go.
Uh and then of course make sure uh you try to buy your own home as well. I will never go on YouTube and tell you not to buy your own home. I'm not going to be like that loser whose name rhymes with schmanone uh and tell you not to buy your own home that you should trust him instead. That's slimy. I'm telling you you should buy your own home.
You should go make your own money first and only after that or if you're not interested in buying your own then consider house act. I think that's just the more integraable way to do it. I don't even know if that's a word. Certainly not the way I pronounced it. Anyway, that brings up then central bank independence and these two dates coming up.
Okay, so the problem with this is I thought that, you know, we weren't going to have to deal with the potential near-term shocks of central bank independence getting questioned because this is what we had when we had a lack of central bank independence and is bad. The problem though is I think there's a chance drum Powell is uh you know like well markets I think there's a chance markets will just look through this because this isn't a direct hit on Jerome Powell.
We did see a little bit of a bleed in after hours uh in both Bitcoin and the Q's. Not much. We saw much more of a sell-off here into the close of the day by fund managers, which makes me wonder if somebody had a heads up. Uh what I do know is we had a really good heads up and a call out to buy Palunteer after a dipset open.
And a lot of people made a lot of money on this. By the way, uh remember you could be part of the Meet Kevin membership if ; Yes, that bullish catalyst. Uh so anyway, what about these two dates? Okay, so there are two critical dates and drone pile referenced basically both of them. Uh number one is uh September 5th.
This is just the jobs report. You already know this. We know it's expecting to come in at 85,000. Great. But you also need to look at the QCW revisions coming out on the 9th. These are going to revise like 6 months worth of data right here. And if these show us in a big pooper dupers, markets going to be really nervous for recession really really fast.
And once recession happens, it it's self-fulfilling. That's the problem with recession. That's why we don't want recession. Uh so that like when you stack all three of these things together, it's bullish long-term that there is talk of the Fed that neutral interest rates are basically on this downtrend that has been going on for 40 years and we're just going to go back to that trend.
Like that's what I've believed and hearing it from the Fed makes me really really really happy and excited that we are doing exactly what we should be doing with House Act. Okay, that's a b Lisa Cook is going to cause some catalysts and and tension for trading tomorrow, especially before Nvidia earnings.
So, we could have a red day tomorrow and the next day. We'll have to strategize in the alpha report what to do about that. Uh, but you could see yield spike. People don't like these attacks at Fed Independence because we know Trump is just going to end up assigning some shill to take her spot. even if she ends up defending herself, she'll be removed for now and you'll get some chill to take the spot.
Now, it does make me wonder, is this just Donald Trump trying to ensure that he ends up getting his 50 or his 25 basis point cut or maybe even people who are going to end up pushing for a 50 cut? Remember, Trump wants us to be 100 basis points lower. The sooner it happens, the better to minimize those risks of a recession.
I wonder if this firing now is coming because Trump is seeing some data that's going to go, "Oh crap, we're actually, you know, these job numbers are starting to come in bad and they're going to come in worse. Let's start cutting sooner. Let's get Lisa Cook out of here." So, I'm not sure if that's sort of a signal we should be reading here.
I'm curious to see what your comments are below. We do have an 84% chance of a 25 basis point cut September 17th right now. Uh, and uh, so we hit um, Lisa Cook, we hit uh, the dates, we hit what what uh, Williams said. Really, the only thing we haven't hit here is just going through a little bit more of this letter.
Um, and pursuant to my authority, you're immediately removed from your position. Federal Reserve has tremendous responsibility for setting interest rates, regulating reserve and member banks. American people must have full confidence in the honesty at minimum. Uh the conduct at issue exhibits the sort of gross negligence and financial contractions that transactions that calls into question your competence and trust trustworthiness as a financial regulator by the executive power vested in me.
I blah blah blah blah blah. You're removed. Hey, look that looks like pubic hair. Uh okay. Anyway, sorry the references are probably not that great. But anyway, um it's going to set up for a little red. I wouldn't be surprised if some people already knew about this coming. Uh I am uh disappointed because I thought the Fed like was was good now because we kind of like got over this.
It's like all right like Powell gave you guys what he want what you guys wanted. Can we can we lay off the attacks? So it is short term going to hurt bonds and some trades. Uh but broader scheme here great for real estate. And then watch not only the fifth but also the ninth. And remember, check out Turboenant.
Uh, and also go to meet Kevinvin.com for your Meet Kevin membership. Uh, if you want the best banking product I think I've ever seen in my life, make sure you go to meet Kevin.com/ I think it's banking. Make sure that uh, it's either banking or bank. But it's so good. We are so Oh, it's bank. Meet Kevin.com/bank.
Go there, sign up. You'll love it. It's the easiest bill pay, easiest synchronization ever. Like there's QuickBooks Bank Inc., but like these people when it comes to bill pay and stuff, oh my gosh, so good. Uh, and then if you need a credit card, go to meet Kevin.com/c1. That's my favorite one. I hours and hours of research on that.
If you need to use Weeble so you could use my lines, go to um meet.com/weble and you get some free stuff. What else can I pitch here? Oh, and if you need life insurance, get life in as little as uh 5 minutes by going to make me.com/ all paid sponsors. Thanks so much for being here. See you in the next one. By.
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