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out of the 81 and a half million families in the United States there are approximately 16 million families and which not one single family member is employed that's about one of every five or roughly twenty percent now this number as shocking as it is has been relatively steady since the bureau of labor statistics began tracking it in 1995 according to the bureau unemployed means an individual who has actively sought out work in the past month so that does not even include those who have given up joining me now to weigh in on this discussion in the economy is David Mueller he's professor of economics at King's College economists Peter Schiff he joins us by Skype thanks Peter and personal finance expert Jordan Goodman and gentlemen before we get started with these I want to look at a couple of numbers because I had to look these up myself I know that for a while I but I'm dennis's show talking about the fact that this is the worst economic recovery in from any recession in the United States history but I didn't know just exactly how bad the GDP in 2015 was two point three eight percent that gloss is over the fact that we had a fourth quarter that was less than one percent growth the projected growth through gdp in 2016 this year is two point six seven percent it's right there on the screen but I couldn't see it up that glosses over the fact that a mini economist and I think Peter might fall in this group who expect to see negative growth in this quarter raising the question are we in fact in a recession so Peter let's start I know that you've been rather bearish on this descanso are we do you think at the point of a recession or do you think we have a little ways to go before we get there well first of all I don't think we ever actually recovered from the last one I mean you say it's the weakest recovery ever I think it's because it's not a recovery at all but if you look at nominal GDP the entire recovery we've had nominal GDP that is consistent with recession it's only because the government is convinced everybody that there's no inflation but if inflation is actually one or two percentage points higher than what the government is using to calculate the GDP deflator then in fact we have never recovered were in recession and in fact if you look at the typical American he is worse off than actually than he was when this so-called recovery began he has a lower net worth he has lower real income a has more debt the homeownership rate has collapsed the lowest in about 50 years so most of the ways we measure well-being or standard of living people are worse off today than they were when the recovery supposedly began and normally the recoveries are better than the recession's but this recovery is worse than the recession for most people for some people obviously if you had a lot of money in the stock market maybe maybe it's been okay for you but I think everything that government has done in the last six or seven years to artificially reflate the stock market bubble in the housing bubble has actually undermined the real economy and prevented the legitimate recovery that would have taken place absent all this government intervention from actually happening and now I think we're back statistically I think at this point the economy is so weak that were statistically back in recession which is why I expect the government to do more of the same failed stimulus before the end of the year which is to cut rates back to zero and launch QE 4 well in as much as I hate to give confirmation to the negative outlook by peter paul i'm going to was grown for Peter to Paul usually we therefore call Peter don't but you know the average assuming that the projections for 2016 a right we do get poo 2.7% we are looking at an average yearly annual GDP under President Obama of 1.5 five percent so it goes right to Peter's point if in fact we are looking at inflation that is a couple of percentage points higher than what we've been looking at we really never did come out of this at all you know that's true I think people call it the jobless recovery for a reason right where we haven't seen a lot of job growth where traditionally after recessions we see a huge uptick in growth and we haven't really seen those jobs instead what we've seen is increases in government spending we've seen increases in regulation and so what we need to think about is why is America becoming less competitive in the market in general and why is that resulting and not as many jobs and wages that are stagnating or people who are getting entangled in the safety net well you know Jordan you fall a person fitting in so you get a better handle maybe than the rest of the group in terms of just where people are Peter reference were saw a lot of us are much worse out there they're hurting the rich did in fact get a little richer the poor got a little poor in the middle class has got basically with a lower you're seeing some pretty high paying jobs getting cut until eleven thousand last week caterpillar all these big companies pretty well paying jobs are disappearing the jobs that are being created are low wage medications no benefit kinds of jobs so the jobs that they say the overall jobs numbers are up and officially it's a five percent unemployment rate but I think that's vastly overstating how number of jobs have been created here Peter what happens next in this economy i know that you see a dire scenario are we looking at negative interest rates on a really bad period in this economy well hopefully we won't go to negative rates negative rates will be doing even more damage than zero percent but you know i wouldn't put it past them they've tried it unsuccessfully in japan and they've tried it be in europe so it might be coming here but you know on the jobs we've been destroying good-paying jobs the jobs that we've been creating not only are they low-paying but they're part time and in fact a lot of the jobs that have been created are held by the same people because people now have two or three part-time jobs and so that's why it looks like you're so many jobs being created because so many businesses no longer hire full-time workers they've had to basically replace their full-time work force with part-timers and so now we know we have record numbers of waiters and bartenders because every waiter is holding down three jobs instead of one job and so this is what president obama defines his progress because he takes credit for all the low paying part time jobs that were created but he doesn't accept responsibility for the higher paying full time jobs that he destroyed in order to make possible those low-paying part-time jobs well you know and to the point one of my favorite figures in then i use favorite in quotes is the u6 indicator in the unemployment aspect report at that you six numbers nine point nine percent that's a debts in contrast double the official unemployment rate of five percent and so having kind of a discouraged workers suddenly but you know what's strange bill is well that's all happening there's a big disconnect in the workforce there's about five million jobs that are available that there are nobody take those jobs they don't have the skills for them so a lot of people older people retiring now but candles me Peter I'll open the Florida up this and maybe Paul you take it you work in college if the fact there are five million jobs that nobody is the skills for how about this radical thought how about the company spend money training people to do those jobs instead of just sitting there saying nobody to do those jobs let's bring in people from outside of the country could do those jobs with those people in fact were trained to do those jobs but the people that are bringing them in the h-1b visa companies why aren't we why are we looking at the government to say retraining people and why isn't industry doing that well I think I think that's an excellent question in terms of I'm sure some companies are but the question is what are the expenses of training people who have a better educational background or people from around the world who have higher degrees in mathematics or in programming other sorts of skills one big problem that we can think about is that in the higher education system that we have right the way we fund it and the way we set it up is there's not much difference between getting an English major or an engineering major right in terms of the funding and what you do there's there's no market signal in education to show hey engineering it's actually more valuable programming is more valuable whether you want to English or sociology or the studies that there's not a good market mechanism to kind of encourage young people to think about their careers and think about you know what I majored in college what I study what I learn to do it's gonna have a big impact on what I'm able to work at there's a systemic problem there I have a daughter who is an undergraduate degree in English and she's doing very well for herself and she's well employed there are people who have engineering degrees I'll go to Peter on this one since i'm going to pointed his industry who are no longer working in engineering you weren't doing anything substantial they're being hired for really sweet numbers and going to work for Wall Street so there's a systemic problem here Peter as well yeah I you know obviously we have our young people unfortunately lured into colleges based on some kind of promise that just getting a degree any degree no matter the cost is somehow you know going to ensure you a good job when you graduate and unfortunately that's not the case and so people have lots of debt and they have majors really that have no marketable value and for companies hire these people and train them it's very expensive to train them and a lot of the people don't want these jobs but I think a lot of the jobs that are going unfilled are really the part time jobs guess why yeah we have so many job openings because companies need a lot of part-time people and sometimes it's hard to find all the part-time help that you need because not everybody's ours will work with the hours that you want and then of course when you're talking about part-time jobs at low pay there are a lot of people that would prefer government welfare programs or unemployment benefits to accepting these low-paying part-time job so I think that's another reason why you still have so many vacancies okay I'm gonna join me i'm gonna do that I'm going to do the utterly bad TV thing we got like two minutes left and I really wanted to get in Social Security we've got a system that more more people believe in said it is on a crash course to insolvency literally two minutes left we're not going to solve this problem but Jordan you started to jump in there so i'll give you first word on this and make it short do we do we need to cut benefits what needs to happen something's got to happen on both sides or social security because we have ten thousand people a day turning 65 adding and we have fewer workers paying into the system it's basically signs as insurance system you pay in you'd get out but there's more people getting out and putting in so it's definitely going towards of Christ if you get your official social security statement it says right on there in 2032 we ran out of money so here we are 2016 it's it's inevitable none of the candidates I'm really talking about doing anything about Social Security I didn't want to retire anyway Paul you're cool yeah I mean social security it's totally unsustainable we have to figure out you know meet commitments to seniors who have retired but we need to start changing the programs to the people of individual retirement accounts I mean that's the only way we're going to solve this problem systemically when Social Security was first passed the tax was anywhere from two to six percent now they're taxing people over twelve percent to pay for this you can't just keep increasing taxes it's the st.
a system that a future doesn't worry when they first started it self-employed people were exempt they didn't even have to pay into the tax because the government assumed that you're smart enough to be self-employed you're smart enough to save for your own retirement look this was a con from the day that Roosevelt sold it to the American public it was sold as an insurance system instead it was a Ponzi scheme and no Ponzi schemes can work just because it's run by the government doesn't mean that it's going to be more successful than what Bernie may off dinner Ponzi himself so look we got to end this program we got to admit that it's a failure it's already out of money and and you know it's going to bankrupt the country if we try to try to live up to these commitments it is impossible to do it the sooner politicians can have the courage to admit this then we can begin to solve the problem but Social Security is completely unsustainable yeah well we have two votes in the program to get rid of the system reform it with something else Jordan you yay or nay fast I wouldn't a season a he wants to keep it fixed right you know the cards and letters to improve it but that we gotta keep let us know what you think send us an email at DML report in news max calm Peter Jordan Paul thank you all for being with us will be like that
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