The $2,400 Per Month Stimulus & Housing.

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실업수당 주당 $600 추가지급 종료(7/31) 후 임대료 연체·퇴거 파도가 올 수 있다고 주장. 미국 30% 주택담보대출 상환유예 신청, 뉴욕 5만 건 퇴거 신청 예상 등을 근거로 제시. 주택담보대출 유예는 사실상 무이자 현금이라 자산 보유자에게 유리하다고 설명. 임대인 중심 정부지원(임대료 보호 프로그램) 필요성 제기. 본인 확률 판단: 의회 추가 대책 70%, 2차 폭락 시나리오 30%. 현재 부동산 비중을 주식보다 높게 가져간다고 밝힘.

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01. hey everyone me Kevin here I was thinking about Lauren's stimulus video she posted this morning meet Lauren in case you haven't seen it yet about the $600 per week plus off and I got to thinking wait a minute she's right and so whether you are a tenant a homeowner on unemployment or not if you care about the future of the market the housing market and the future of America this is very important because in this video I'm going to talk about the next housing meltdown and the $600 plus up now you can watch her video to see her points but this is also a very important dialogue to have there are actually two main dialogues happening in our country right now one is that the $600 per week plus up that $2,400 per month extra pay and unemployment creates a disincentive for people to go to work and it should continue to expire on July 31st as planned the other is that people want to go back to work but they can't because guess what we're in a pandemic this is happening at the same time as there is a massive foreclosure crisis that feels like it's looming and hanging over our heads like a hammer that's ready to drop it's kind of like the same hammer that tells you to go to the links below and get life insurance in two free stocks when you sign up for weeble and deposit $100 but in the meantime we have concerns about housing a wave of defaults coming in housing a wave of defaults coming in credit cards and possibly even a wave of defaults coming in auto loans as for parents periods come to an end and whether or not you like this news organization the fact of the matter is the CNBC has reported that 30% of Americans missed their mortgage payments in June folks this number used to be one in 20 missed their mortgage payments in April now it's one in three now granted June isn't over yet but if this is a sign of what's to come maybe CNBC is right to warn about a quote housing apocalypse especially when they reference at least 50,000 eviction filings that are expected to hit the courts in New York City as soon as the eviction ban ends and so in this video I'm going to explain how important the $600 per week plus up or $2,400 per month of unemployment stimulus is to the economy and what it means to you if you are a tenant a homeowner or even someone not on unemployment so really this applies to everyone this is very important especially since I'm going to cover what to watch for and what to do to prepare now you're going to see a lot of talk about this mortgage crisis coming and you're gonna wonder initially how does this relate to the $600 plus up we'll stay tuned because here's the thing the real estate crisis is not going to come from mortgage forbearance and the end of mortgage forbearance it's going to be something else but it's going to be equally as important in fact here's what's gonna happen when mortgage Mura forbearance goes away the fact that 30% of people because right now people a lot of folks at least are taking mortgage forbearance because they're choosing to take it now don't get me wrong there are a lot of people who need to take mortgage forbearance but there are also a lot of people who are taking mortgage forbearance because why not it's basically free stimulus money and that's exactly why originally I recommend it I don't know about this mortgage forbearance but then I saw Fannie Mae Freddie Mac and FHA changed their terms and say you could basically take the money you owe and put it at the end of the loan term and I'm like oh my gosh this is basically free stimulus money I'll explain that in a second everybody should take mortgage forbearance with the exception of a few realistically 99% of people with mortgages should be taking mortgage forbearance but that is not a sign of a crash that is a sign of people literally taking free money and I'm not saying that to slam anybody I'm not saying that somebody should not take mortgage forbearance I think people should take mortgage forbearance whether that's because you need to pay for your child's you know kindergarten different kindergartens open or you need to pay for groceries or you need to pay the bills or because you want to save money for a rainy day and cushion your emergency fund you want to build a business and you need more money to do that or you want a hotel stocks or Bitcoin it doesn't matter there are very few reasons not to take mortgage forbearance right now probably the only reasons not to take it or if you're currently doing a refinance er you're currently buying real estate and that's exactly why I've recommended on my programs and in this public channel that you do take mortgage forbearance but the fact that a lot of people are taking mortgage forbearance right now or really any kind of mortgage for rents isn't what's going to cause the meltdown instead think about it this way mortgage forbearance gives you the opportunity for 12 months to build your cash cushion think about it if you have a mortgage payment of $2,000 per month you say $24,000 per year how does that turn into free money while you invest it and if you invest that money usually within 10 to 15 years if you invest it even just in a basic index fund you could probably double your money and you basically got yourself a free $24,000 right so that's how the money's free but how does this relate back to the $600 plus of them why would people take mortgage forbearance if they don't need it I mean isn't that gonna hurt their credit not really people are seeing things to their credit of maybe 30 40 points and it goes away after 2 to 3 credit cycles which they usually check your credit every 2 to 4 weeks so well you know within a month to 2 maybe 3 months your credits back to normal and given the luxurious terms basically that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and FHA are giving people getting mortgage forbearance again it's basically free stimulus money people who own assets again are winning and people who are tenants are getting screwed but again how does this relate back to that $600 well here's the thing tenants right now who are not paying rent because they don't have a job or because their business is closed have no choice but to stop paying rent and be shielded by the fact that there is an eviction ban but they do have the $600 plus up right now which means maybe they can continue to make their payments because they're receiving unemployment pay self-employed people are getting the $600 per week and regular employees are eligible for the $600 per week and all of a sudden they can make their payments but what happens if they're not able to make those payments anymore and they do fall behind on their payments well they have a few choices then it can it can negotiate with their landlord they can try to negotiate a lower payment or some sort of reasonable payback period or guess what will happen if they don't end up getting evicted and if people get evicted and mass like what we're hearing might happen in New York City guess what happens tenants credit scores get tanked they get sued they get judgments against them they might have to file bankruptcy at their business they might have to move and all of a sudden you're actually creating an entirely different kind of crash rather than the housing market crashing from speculative home buyers you know driving up real estate prices instead you're gonna see the reverse happened but it's gonna be just as bad tenants are going to have no choice when the six hundred dollars per week dries up which is going to dry up on July 31st and if Congress doesn't act to pass more or an extension of the $600 plus up tenants will have no choice but to fall behind on their rents they'll be protected by the eviction shields but if they get evicted and this will take you know a year to two years they get evicted guess what happens tenants move to poorer areas tenants move to poorer areas where people are willing to accept tenants who have bankruptcies on their records poor credit scores and unstable or potentially unstable incomes because they were just evicted and so this does two things number one it concentrates the poor concentrating the poor into an area leads to even more lack of social mobility more racial tensions worse cooling more crime and a bigger wealth gap so when you concentrate the poor you're actually making things worse and then rents in moderate and even expensive areas will plummet first this will take one to two years to happen and certainly it's not gonna happen right away I mean we have a surge in rental demand right now because nobody was renting places in April there's lack of renters in April because everybody was on lockdown but if tenants get ruined during this pandemic then in the long term rents will plummet everywhere except the most poor areas and then you might think well maybe I should go invest in poor areas because hey maybe prices in the poor areas are gonna skyrocket right maybe I should go invest there unfortunately that's not what happens when more poor people concentrate into a poor area guess what happens quality of life goes down because of overpopulation policing goes up maintenance goes down crime goes up and if anything prices might actually fall faster in poorer areas and is the poor concentrated now this isn't to say that all tenants are poor there are people that do have a lot of money as tenants but those people are not getting the benefit that people who own real estate are getting they're not getting the real fat stimulus check mortgage forbearance that's letting you take money now and kick it down the road 30 years and it's not even a little bit of money it's a lot of money because it's your housing payment and that's a big deal then here's what happens if the eviction pandemic takes a and we actually see a lot of tenants get evicted that investment-grade real estate like apartment buildings get destroyed first that trickles over to single-family housing and then you have the entire market crumble from renters that is rents go down and that creates a crumbling of the market now there'll always be some stability because people do want to own maybe that means some tenants who didn't end up getting evicted will want to become buyers but it's going to be hard for people who got evicted and how their credit scores get destroyed be ever able to become buyers so they wouldn't even be able to take advantage of the deals so how do you deal with this and what do you have to watch out for well here's the thing what you want to keep an eye out for is what Congress does for the people who need the most help which right now are the people on unemployment the people getting the $600 boost are the ones who are falling behind on rent without the boost or would fall behind on rent without the boost these are the folks that need additional support and without additional support of that end of the economy the economy could crumble from a direction that we're not expecting it to from and you need to be aware of that now what are the odds of this right and what are some options here well obviously the option is just extend unemployment until the pandemic is over that would be easy that would solve this like that then there's some kind of combination right maybe Congress could somehow give money to tenants but that pisses off landlords if landlords get money well that pisses off the entire world generally somebody's getting screwed with one of the alternate options and it tends to be more unpopular maybe Congress will force some kind of repayment plan between tenants and landlords that's not gonna be super popular forcing landlords that take less rent is also not super unpopular and the combination will probably be just as bad so then you have the option of what about just giving more stimulus money but as soon as you give stimulus money directly to landlords or tenants well that doesn't look good that's bad PR and people don't like to see that landlords don't like to see money giving to tenants and tenants don't like to see money given to landlords may be a better solution would be something like a rent protection program kind of like the Paycheck protection program but for landlords basically the rent the tenant was supposed to pay becomes a four give a bull loan to the landlord the landlord keeps paying the bank the the tenant doesn't have to pay rent until they go back to work or until the pandemic is Oh so the banks get money the landlord gets money and the tenant gets a place to stay without this sort of hammer getting ready to drop that they're gonna get evicted if they don't make their payments so they don't catch up after the pandemic is over and everybody's happy who pays for it while Jerome Powel longer-term implications for that I mean we can't just keep borrowing money and printing money forever right but here's what we can do because we can't control what the Fed does here's what we can do right now we pay attention to what Congress does if Congress and Alexa people on unemployment we are going to have an eviction pandemic and it is going to be a crisis if tenants and evictions and rents are not solved I would be nervous about the market which means I would increase my emergency fund and be more prepared to take advantage of possible future opportunities and a possible other crash in the future maybe that's the w-shaped recovery where we see that second real crash maybe it's not gonna come this fall with a second wave maybe it's going to come in two years I see this as 30 percent likely but I want to let you know about it because 30 percent is reasonable if I thought this was 1% likely I wouldn't make a video about it now I do believe that it's more likely that is I believe it's 70 percent likely that Congress does act that there will be some sort of additional stimulus either money unemployment payments of sort of eviction solution something to prevent the eviction pandemic again I believe this to be 70 percent likely and this is why I personally am currently focusing more on real estate than I am on stocks because I'm bullish that Congress will do the right thing in support tenants we just haven't seen it yet instead what we've been seeing is basically we're gonna wait and see we're gonna wait more a bunch of this confusing talk we're trying to decipher what the heck is going on ah so bottom line if Congress extends the $600 per week bonus or some sort of continued bonus for tenants or some sort of protection for tenants you'd probably be incentivized to buy real estate and take advantage of low rates right now otherwise you'd be better and honestly in both cases you better be getting really good deals you better be lining up good deals left and right and protecting yourself my programs on money show you how you can go from zero to millionaire and the program link down below you can see some of the other programs I have as well regarding and with it whether it's money and stocks there's a program for that real estate agent sales or do-it-yourself property management heck you can even bundle those if you have questions about that you can email me link is down below but anyway and thank you so much for watching make sure to get your to free stocks with we both video we'll see you soon