저자: Kevin · 외국인
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주택담보대출 연체 급증 우려는 과장이며 실제 압류율은 20년 내 최저 수준이라고 주장. 포버런스(상환유예)와 대출 연장 등 정부 대응(Fannie/Freddie, 연준)으로 주택시장 위기는 사실상 없고, 오히려 임대료·퇴거 문제가 리스크라고 봄. 자신은 샌타바버라 물건 계약을 취소했지만 벤투라 카운티 등 추가 매물 탐색 중. 연방 개입으로 주가와 부동산이 떠받쳐진다는 견해 포함.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here many of you know a few things about me one you know that I'm a 28 year old real estate investor and real estate broker who drives a Tesla around with his face on it too I'm currently buying another project to renovate and rent out 3 you know there's a coupon code down below that expires in two days for you know that I've built my net worth investing in real estate you've probably seen my net worth video where you've seen me grow my net worth by investing in real estate so really it's a big deal to me when I hear about mortgage crisis I get nervous 5 you know you could get two free stocks and life insurance in the link down below just deposit $100 6 you may have heard the news about a spike in mortgage delinquencies well this might sound scary and what you might hear are headlines or topics like this four point three million people missed their payments by June 15th the typical deadline for mortgage payments only 15% of people in forbearance made their mortgage payments why would you make your mortgage payment if you're in forbearance anyway more than 8% of all mortgages are past due or in foreclosure oh and up to 30% of people haven't even made their June payment yet that was a CNBC article and you may have also heard at the same time things like existing home sales tanked 9.7% in May the prices moved up at the slowest rate in almost a decade the real estate industry is crawling and all these scary headlines well here's the reality the reality is anyone who has a mortgage would be smart to request mortgage forbearance right now think about it it's an easy way to build up an emergency fund and as long as you a test a test just means state right that you're affected by the pandemic you can apply and guess what I think we're all affected by the pandemic no certification no paperwork nothing just an attestation you check a box or you send an email and in most cases your payment's won't even be due until the end of your loan no penalties no fees so these statistics saying people are in the foreclosure process and delinquencies are up highly skewed in fact if we look at the share of homeowners in the actual foreclosure process where foreclosure proceedings are actually happening guess what that number looks like and we just clarify that one more time a little bit better the news articles are saying oh my gosh X number of people are in forbearance or foreclosure oh that sounds bad because they lump together forbearance or foreclosure but when we actually zoom in and look at the percentage of people that are actually in foreclosure we're at the lowest point we have ever been in in the last 20 years which that means we go all the way back to two thousand two thousand one two three we have the lowest point of foreclosures at any point throughout the last 20-year history even throughout the recession or any other parts of history and homeowner equity right now all-time highs and this is all really helped by the rule of 10x remember that rates when they drop 1% mortgage interest rates drop 1% prices tend to go up 10% not immediately sometimes it takes a little bit of time especially in low inventory markets but pretty quickly rates go down a percent prices go up 10% rates go up a percent prices go down 10% it's almost this perfect yin and yang it does take a little time for the market to realize it though so even if people lost their jobs temporarily let's just say because this is another counter-argument that comes up where people have a book Kevin okay so what if you legitimately took mortgage forbearance and then you lose your job and then you've got to go take a lower paying job what happens when you go back to that lower paying job aren't you just gonna go into foreclosure well a thanks to your equity being way up thanks to the rule of 10x probably not but let's go worst case scenario and let's say you happen to have a home in New York City which is like one of the few locations in the country getting obliterated in the real estate market that is prices in the luxury market like that eighteen to thirty million dollar range those prices are down like 20 percent from their highs in 2017 and there's been this trend downwards of people fleeing the city and that has just been accelerated by the pandemic and what what do you have while the wealthy aren't buying because well prices are trending downwards then you see people working from home and then you see people not wanting to be around the roni roni so prices in New York City are falling New York City's the exception right the rest of the country prices are actually increasing slowly they're already up about 2.4 percent year-over-year but think about this for a moment okay what happens if your income gets cut and then you do go back and worst case scenario your property value is either flat or down because obviously if it's up you're not gonna go into foreclosure you'd be better off just selling the property and there's plenty of appetite with buyers right now so if your income goes down well I mean that's bad you might not be able to make your mortgage payment anymore right well guess what Fannie and Freddie backed by mr.
Powell Jay pal the dude with the burn money printer they came swooping in going hey hey hey y'all y'all first of all first thing we're gonna do to solve the situation here okay everybody who's missed their payments through the attestation process will have their payments put to the end of the loan that's Fannie Freddie okay most this applies to most loans check with your bank but but that's pretty much where this is heading that's either already rule or it's pending rule the second thing that they're doing is okay okay okay now once those missed payments are at the end what about the people whose incomes have fallen what should we do for the people whose incomes have fallen and they can no longer make or afford that same mortgage payment how about we do a loan modification and we allow them to maybe have a 40-year mortgage instead of a 30-year mortgage which anytime you stretch out how long a loan is guess what your payment's go down boom no need to get foreclosed on anymore so all of a sudden you go huh so Kevin what you're saying is mr.
Jay pal fully bailed out the mortgage market to basically make it impossible for there actually to be a mortgage crisis homeowners are in essence triple protected either right well right now they're not making their payments because they don't have to you may as well not make your payment's you're smart not to make your payment's which I that sounds insane to say think about what I just said I can say it again but go back 15 seconds but anyway you're protected in that case you kick the can down the road for 25 to 30 years or whatever is left on your loan property values aren't going up and if you end up making less money because your pay got cut you can hit up the bank for four our payment amounts right it's insane it makes you want to own real estate it makes you want to join my zero to millionaire real estate investing course because it's like hello FOMO like this is too good to be true and yeah it is partially concerning because then you kind of start wondering like what does that this mean we're in a bubble or does this mean that our government is so psychologically scarred from the last housing crisis that they will do everything in their power to prevent another housing crisis but seriously this is exactly why more people are buying stocks now as well through Robin Hood and all these other platforms because people in a lot of cases have more money because people aren't having to make their mortgage payments and by the way if you want to see my stock allocation for today June 22nd go to met Kevin Comstock's June 2 to you can see the link down below as well it'll just show you my stock picks for today obviously always do your own research in the short-term companies can't go down in value or they can go up it's I don't have a crystal ball I don't know okay these are just my long-term beliefs but what about the fact that there are fewer sales happening in real estate right now and yes fewer sales in real estate right now is a problem but in a weird way it's actually propping up prices so the less people are putting the e pandemic and they're waiting for things to level out actually helps keep prices propped up so what the heck like how do we respond to this and is there actually an issue of a real crisis happening well here's the scoop tracking delinquencies to tell if prices are going to come down is the wrong thing to do instead right now we need to focus on tenants if tenants get shafted because they're $600 per week of unemployment ends and tenants don't get any kind of additional stimulus I guess what's and or it's gonna be up to the tenants to negotiate their rent back and that is their back rent and kind of catch up right now realistically landlords who are taking mortgage forbearance should probably be passing on a break to their tenants that's the right thing to do but if I'm landlord is not taking mortgage forbearance then they would have to negotiate with their tenant how the tenant is going to catch up on back rent the last thing you we want to see are a wave of evictions and lawsuits that are going to screw tenants and screw the rental market because that will end up coming back to haunt the housing market in two or three years so what we have to keep an eye out for right now is rental and eviction crisis not the mortgage crisis the mortgage crisis is Fugazi right now there is no mortgage crisis there would have been a mortgage crisis but guess what mr.
J pal came in with the money I should have a 3d printed money printer honestly she came in with the money printer and goes you need money you need buddy you need buddy here's insulation for you cuz you know you can't die when you got the mario star okay now in response to the person who asked me if I'm canceling my home purchase due to the spike in the mortgage crisis the interests of this is to parted I was actually in escrow on two properties one was a complete disaster fixer-upper on a Sears built home that I thought I was going to be able to renovate within will start renovation on within six to eight weeks unfortunately the city of Santa Barbara says it's going to take me my architect putting plans together for a month plus about nine to ten months nine to ten months for them to go over the paperwork that is here's the paperwork Santa Barbara Santa Barbara goes go we're gonna sit here for nine to ten months while you sit there with a vacant house twiddling your thumbs and paying property taxes and maintenance on that property and ordinarily I'd say insurance but guess what I can't get insurance on that house either because it's red tagged by the city so if the place burns down I lose the property and have no insurance so that's deal number one the second deal that I'm doing is actually a wedge deal that's going to increase my net worth about a hundred thousand dollars if I just put forty thousand dollars into cleaning it up and instantly my net worth will go up about a hundred grand doing very very little work forty grand worth of work out in California is not a lot it's like replacing the carpet okay that's a joke it's a little bit more than replacing the carpet but yes California is nuts so the answer to the question am i canceling my deals I am canceling the Santa Barbara deal because waiting nine to ten months to do a deal is absolutely ridiculous but it's because of the weight not because of the mortgage crisis there's a wedge deal that I'm buying with that hundred grand in equity boost that deal I am very happy about and I am looking for more deals like that so if you ever come upon a deal in Ventura County you just hit up your boy and meet Kevin over here and he will close the deal for you as long as it's not that Santa Barbara dea use that coupon code get your life insurance especially if you're gonna go do a renovation and go buy that deal in Santa Barbara you're gonna need life insurance because you're gonna get real stressed out real fast real good there you have it thanks everybody
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