원문 보기
oh is it macro time to buy the dip UBS is going for bonds but others say it's fear time in the stock market might be time to buy the dip in the 2025 Stock Market South Korean 2216 is flight data recorders mysteriously stopped working four minutes before the most deadly crash in South Korean history last month we'll briefly touch on that a petition is now circulating to recall Karen Bass the mayor of Los Angeles for failing her duties of leadership in the California fires Gavin Nome is still trying to figure out why hydrants failed to work in California 20% of hydrants failed mind you in the Palisades fire and at the same time Nome is now looking at cutting the state budget for universities in the state and deciding now to pay for diapers for new moms apparently those are the current priorities while at the same time Mr my pillow just lost a lawsuit to DHL got to pay the shipping fees for pillows and JP Morgan employees are apparently freaking out over having to go back to the office we briefly touch on Israel potential Extended Stay on the border of Syria and much more on today's meet Kevin Port News that makes you money first up let's get this out out of the way because it is just devastating 179 people died in the South Korean flight 2216 crash apparently there was a potential bird strike in one of the engines it's not clear if that's exactly what happened but that's what's believed to have happened but somehow that may have killed the Hydraulics people say or the pilots just literally forgot to put the landing gear down for the plane they were Landing which is like seems ridiculous and extremely scary but apparently the plane came in for a belly landing it didn't start its belly landing until halfway down the runway which means half of its available Runway was already used up and then it ended up crashing into a concrete barrier at the end of the running way Runway killing 179 individuals two people actually survived after they were flung from the back of the plane and after they were flung I guess they woke up in the hospital alive absolutely crazy but now we don't have the flight data recorder for those critical last 4 minutes where we could have heard what was going on in that cockpit obviously other investigations could be conducted in terms of was there actually a loss of hydraulic pressure uh you know or fluid or whatever control why was the gear not able to be put down how does all of a sudden uh one engine failing lead to the plane attempting to climb failing to climb hence the return to the airport but then Landing without the gear ex said it just all seems weird and I know know a lot of people want answers I certainly do again especially as a pilot now I I just I want to know I want to know what happened so mistakes like that could be avoided in the future and it's absolutely terrible and we don't know if it was a mistake accidents like that could be avoided in the future is the better way to say we'll see what happened uh anyway uh on macro let's hit this UBS is apparently now going long on the five-year treasury they uh started going long on the 5-year treasury as of late last year they actually think that at this point the market has basically priced in the absolute worst casee scenario for bonds which is some return of inflation potentially even from the labor market some return to inflation because of Donald Trump's tariffs some return to higher rates because of a hawkish fed and they kind of think that at this point with how few rate cut expectations the market is giving the FED some people saying the FED will even raise rates in 2025 UBS says Nah you know what this actually might be the time to enter bonds now don't listen to anyone's opinion on this not even me because I'll tell you anybody could be totally wrong and who knows maybe rates will end up going up to 6% and your investment will be even more upside down if you do that but uh it is interesting to see that UBS is going long and they're going for the five-year treasury so they're not going for as long as like a TLT which is your 25e sort of average maturity anyway uh they see a continued weakness in interest rate sectors actually leaving the economy in potentially a slower state or more mass Fest like State than others anticipate and they think that will contribute to looser monetary policy than people think they do think that the first half of 2025 might be unfriendly to the stock market and growth mostly because of the level of uncertainty you're going to get out of Donald Trump in the first half of the year they do think that you're going to move towards growth after Donald Trump's policies become more clear but that you'll need that Clarity in act in order to actually get to that level so another words maybe you buide the dip opportunity in those first 6 months they think the same thing for China by the way the first six months partly because of trump are going to be the most volatile now uh the market year actually thinks we're getting close to a buy the dip opportunity they say that because greed fear and greed levels are at fear sentiment is now mid-range leverage has rotated off of highs sentiment is returning well to neutral that's also another way of saying mid-range fewer than half of S&P 500 stocks are above their 200 day moving average the first time this has happened since November of 2023 they think we are actually getting potentially closer to BU the dip # not personalized advice anyway uh then I go actually back to even more pieces UBS just published a few here UBS says hey look even if there is some cause for caution or some cause for potentially exposing yourself to bonds they say just look at how January performs usually how January performs is how the rest of the year goes 75% of the time since 1928 this has been true green January green year Market positive has been by the way positive 43 times out of the last 60 years so if you're keeping track that works out to about 71.6% of the time the Market's going to end up up by the end of the year obviously we're coming off some pretty dang green years over the last two years but they say look the bull Market's only two years old average bull market is 6 point six years long so hey we've actually got some more cooking to do it's kind of an interesting Duality coming from UBS here it's like oh the first 6 months I don't know man buy bonds but then they're also like no no things could still be bullish for the rest of the year okay UBS uh make up your mind uh anyway I'll tell you who's uh also trying to figure out exactly where to go and that is quite literally JP Morgan employees now I mentioned this in the macro section because I think a lot of this is happening at companies I think companies don't want to come across as yeah we're laying people off because it just it's going to look too negative it's going to look bad bad it's going to look politically bad it's going to look like they they are too weak or whatever uh and so JP Morgan is now requiring 300,000 employee is that right 300,000 my goodness how many employees uh does JP Morgan have let me just verify this 300,000 employees okay it is right I his number just seemed ridiculously high know geez anyway JP Morgan is requiring all 300,000 of their employees to return to work starting in March with quote a few exceptions many employees then ended up leaving comments on the company's website where they posted these news updates about the increase in commuting costs complaining about child care costs and impacts on work life balance and all of these by the way I shouldn't say complaining but that's what kind of JP Morgan's POV is uh because these are valid comments that people are leaving but JP Morgan is responding with a few different things number one they've disabled comments on that website so they don't want to hear it they're basically like uh and then they're saying uh we know that some of you prefer a hybrid schedule and respectfully understand that not everyone will agree with this decision we feel that right now is the right time to solidify our full-time in office approach we think it is the best way to run the company okay look I like JP Morgan uh I actually think they're they're one of the best banks I'm not saying they're the only option for banking there are plenty of options and I think there are some wonderful opportunities you can even get at smaller Banks Regional Banks especially now that the banking crisis is basically over and the Federal Reserve has is I mean banks are still way upside down so I have to be careful about saying the banking crisis over but we know that the Federal Reserve is very well primed to bail out Banks infinitely essentially uh but anyway I think this is really just a way of doing what we call quiet laying off this is what you saw at Amazon you've seen this at other companies as well basically that the white CER Workforce is purposefully getting squeezed because look now we have artificial intelligence we actually don't need maybe as much labor for potentially you know growing economy but maybe slower growth economy and so hey if people want to leave no problem buddy you don't have to work in office just leave and their fireworks going off on that okay interesting so anyway uh Goldman Sachs notes that valuations sure they might be a little high right now if you look at you know 50 to 75 years ago but you have to actually isolate for the rapid growth in technologies that are happening so yes valuations are higher but we're getting uh larger payout ratios more than double from companies we're getting net margins that are 40 actually that's 400 basis points so about 4% higher than usual and return on Equity is about 3% higher than usual so you're making more money in these stocks they're better they're larger they're higher margin they do more BuyBacks and dividends so maybe it's okay that valuations are a little bit higher right now and maybe we're less susceptible to a recession the then again this also sort of Echoes that mindset that people argue and they say ah yes yes of course this time is different because profit margins are higher everything is fine but Goldman overall seems to be pretty bullish because in another piece they talk about how yes well right now good news is being considered bad news when it comes to the economy Circa 2022 uh yields are going up because of a Fed a hawkish fed and maybe you don't want to fight the FED in the short term but on the long-term valuations might not be in such a place where you just sell everything and sit out a potential Market rally instead maybe another option uh is just diversify yes just spread your apples amongst the other highly priced app app anyway uh some others say that uh optimism at this point may be priced in this is no uh nordia nordia norda I'm probably saying it wrong so it's probably more like norda but anyway they say that optimism right now this is a problem is kind of fully priced into financial markets to the point where it raises the bar performance for performance and markets right now think that we're going to earn growing at 15% in 2025 and you know what maybe we maybe we will I mean I I personally think that would be wonderful that' be a great way to be able to grow startups and expand businesses because you don't want to be in a recession recessions are bad so maybe it's great uh they think the economy is strong maybe a lot of that is already priced in but the economy should stay strong so honestly it doesn't seem like a lot of people actually really see clouds on the horizon which always makes me nervous when I'm like man are there any bears out there not really at least they're not very vocal right now anyway uh I'll tell you who is a and that's Mark Zuckerberg when it comes to Apple Mark Zuckerberg is now saying that Apple hasn't invented anything in a while in his conversation with Joe Rogan he says that they're squeezing everyone he says that uh iPhone sales might ultimately be declining that Apple wraps their devices into privacy uh protocols limiting other companies from being able to access uh these devices and uh look the Apple iPhone was great because it got everybody into Apps which after all basically you know helped Facebook on a mobile platform uh and certainly via Instagram's acquisition and otherwise but uh he laments that Apple has this sort of like cultural programming of oh if you're not a blue text you're not cool or you don't fit in I mean look every everybody who's got a blue text phone is like oh are they blue text you know it's it's sort of like something that we react with and I think it'll honestly go down as one of the greatest psychological experiments ever because yes that's exactly what happens pretty sure Mark Zuck uses an iPhone but he certainly does complain about it uh he's doing a little bit of complaining about Apple here suggesting that they they create high barriers to entry they limit competition they increase developer cost and they're not really innovating that much okay this is interesting because Apple did just come out with the Apple Vision Pro which I thought is cool but I I just his daily use function is very very low uh I rarely use mine like I feel like I have to force myself to use it to justify its existence hanging on the hook that I have for it so maybe he's on to something but then again Tim P when it comes to Mark Zuckerberg's comments about uh Donald Trump and Elon Musk Tim P says that Mark Zuckerberg is just a fair weather friend and he was basically complicit in the censorship that happened under the Biden Administration Gavin Newsome wants to create a new homelessness agency homeless agency anyway to help fight homelessness because I'm sure that'll work a lot better than all the other failures that uh he's promoted in addition to that he now wants to provide three months of free diapers for newborns he's eliminated 6500 vacant positions in prisons to help tighten spending uh especially at prisons so I guess there are more precisions uh and they're now cutting uh funds to the University of California and California State University system by 8% which will likely lead to larger class sizes and fewer courses talking about courses the course for the California wildfires don't look too great uh Gavin Nome uh by the way is now coming out cut $101 million from the 2025 budget which started in June for wildfire and Forest resilience programs $5 million of that was cut from the fuel Reduction Program which remember how we talked about this yesterday that you know naturally over history California has burned a lot but the small fires that used to happen by nature would burn away the fuel that's on the floor throughout different dried out droughted out areas of California but but without those natural smaller fires that are extinguished in lower wind environments by our firefighters and a lack of actual Forest management or controlled Burns thereafter what do you get well you get a buildup of this fuel on the floor and that's potentially one of the reasons you could have these mega fires especially in a high wind environment yes a high wind environment may be caused by climate change but the fact of the matter is the stuff that's on the floor is as a result of us intervening with the natural process of forc managing in a natural way so if nature is not going to be able to do it because we're in the way then we have to step in and do it it's very interesting anyway there's now change.org petition that has 73232 signatures as of of January 11th at 300 p.m.
to recall Karen bass for her failed leadership failure to lead during this unprecedented crisis JP Morgan believes that insurance losses will be around $20 billion the total losses will likely exceed $60 billion they also estimate that less than 75% of total claimed amounts might end up being paid if people are underinsured or money just falls short so uh under under Insurance may also be an issue worth noting there um is this just a bad spot to write okay maybe this is just a bad place to put this but have I mentioned that you could get life insurance in as little as 5 minutes you you just go to met kevin.com lifee you could have the same life insurance that Lauren and I use I'm a pilot so it's kind of good to have but anyway you can Apple pay Android pay for it let's go to metkevin.com lifee and go check it out that is a uh an affiliate of the channel okay 12% of homeowners in California apparently don't cover or hold and carry Insurance especially those in the Palisades Bowl Mobile Estates Park which was completely destroyed so there are going to be a lot of people that have just lost lots of assets and not carrying Insurance probably just a very bad idea in California though it is and has been relatively punitive to have insurance in California until of course you have a loss I guess that's the nature of insurance uh by the way I'll be going on the um it's already recorded but I'll be uh an episode of myself will be airing on uh the ice coffee hour with graham Stefan and Jack tomorrow so stay tuned for that I that's one of the reasons I'm here in Vegas in addition to conducting some additional instrument Flight Training all right there's also now F drama going on over the fire chief apparently criticizing this is Kristen Crowley by the way criticizing the mayor of La as having failed the fire department uh Kristen rightfully says look we don't service the fire hydrants like our firefighters show up and they expect water to be there but out of uh 1,000 hydrants that were attempted to be used 20% of them did not have water in them so when you have a 20 20% failure rate on fire hydrants that is not the fault of the fire department that is the fault of the leadership and the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power remember the person who was chosen to lead the Department of Water and Power excuse me ended up getting a 72% pay increase from the prior person to pay to $751,000 to lead this department and then she ended up leaving reservoirs dry and fire hydrants not working clearly paying her more money three4 of a million dollars is uh not enough maybe she needs to be paid a few million of those that's ridiculous fire her and hire five competent people for that price uh not that price but like that price divided by five right you could get five happily competent people to work for $150,000 a piece or something like that good Lord sorry stuff like that just pisses me off all right anyway mandatory evacuations in the area uh do come with a cur curfew now of 600 p.m.
to 6:00 a.m. National Guard is in place 1,600 individuals deployed for the National Guard female has received 16,000 apps for Relief still getting Gusty winds I mean I was coming out here Landing over in Vegas and still getting Gusty winds over here too it's crazy uh anyway Newsome did order a review of the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power hydrant issue though a lot of people are like bro how did you not like supervise this this is your job to make sure these things don't fail anyway some people who lost their home Anna from Scary Movie Adam Brody and wife who stared in Gossip Girl Anthony Hopkins from Silence of the land Billy Crystal and wife Candy Spelling Broadway producer jimes wood by the way his house survived although people thought um his uh his house was destroyed that was the original thought Billy Crystal and his wife lost their home Candy Spelling Denise Crosby from Star Trek next Jen uh lost her home Cameron mat TV host Carrie elz from Princess Bride Kobe smolders from How I Met Your Mother that last name just does not fit I'm sorry that's insensitive Eugene Levy uh from uh American Pie Heidi monog and Spencer Pratt reality TV Jeff Bridges from bake Labowski John Riley Mandy Moore Oh from A Walk to Remember this such a good movie and I love the songs too is heartbreaking anyway uh Mel Gibson from Braveheart Melissa Rivers Joan Rivers daughter by the way saved Jones Emmy before the fire yeah didn't Joan Rivers get hired by uh yeah she she somehow beat Annie was it was her name Annie Duke I should have looked this up before but I think it was Annie in Celebrity Apprentice man that was the biggest ripoff ever I'm sorry Donald Trump that was like I don't know that was rigged man and he should have won that one okay I'll take that one to the Grave anyway Paris Hilton Diane Warren pop singer Sandra Lee former first lady of New York Ricky Lake TV host uh Jack Smith resigned I don't know why he's in the list of people who lost their homes he's not it's just a separate line to Jack Smith resigned for what that's worth Mike Lindell we talked about him getting sued by DHL and now he's got to pay $778,000 after pay failing to pay for a contract Israel ah yeah this was an interesting one okay so basically Israel has soldiers that have raided the Syrian border and you know temporarily set up blockades in the area just east of the Golan Heights a lot of people wonder like okay is Israel going to be here forever uh but the answer is probably yes they'll probably create a buffer zone in Syria especially since Syria has really you know Fallen well the Assad regime has fallen which could be good because maybe the civil war in Syria will finally be over uh remember what happened this all happened you know over the holidays I mean between like Thanksgiving and Christmas the Assad regime which has been in power for 54 years collapsed Assad is believed to have fled through you know a Russian airplane or helicopter or whatever out of Damascus after Rebels surrounded it uh and uh he's probably in Russia uh and probably has been granted asylum on what people believe to be quote humanitarian grounds which is odd given uh the history of the Assad regime okay uh so that's the news of the day let's go hit some of the other things like the dad joke of the day uh and the Daily Wealth email so the Daily Wealth email that I sent last night actually came from Lauren this is the one of the first times uh Lauren has um been involved in this and this is it was really more inspired by her but I wrote Lauren and I are obviously close to the fires but not in danger and Lauren brought up her household famous line her line has to do with solving things that take long to solve things like politically water infrastructure better schools your Investments your career your relationships blah blah blah initially her line never really grew on me but it slowly did I didn't like it at first and it just grew on me and her line is time is ticking anyway time doesn't stop so you may as well be making progress on something valuable hm now that was so simple and yet so true time is ticking anyway so why not why not start that treadmill routine now you know before you know it you're 20 days deep Why not start that productive checklist right now before you know it you'll be 10 days in on that checklist 100 days in you know if you want I'm not say I don't actually Advocate that people like stop drinking cold turkey even though I did it's not like I'm trying to like you know drag people in with it like Warren still casually drinks uh which is totally fine uh but if you wanted to stop drink then start it all starts with your first day or maybe it's like your first day of only having two drinks as opposed to going for that third or that fourth right the rest of the wine bottle uh start planning that uh uh a family trip you know start getting on that Journey towards a thousand hours of the X thing that you're trying to work on whether that's you know learning to bowl or practicing piano you know it's all one hour at a time you've every hour you spend will always take an hour so the question is what are you spending that hour on something that's actually going towards growing you and improving something that you're doing or not is it sitting around on the toilet scrolling on Tik Tok because you forgot to get off the toilet after going to the bathroom and you just got distracted by Tik toks are you spending that you know learning an extra hour of how to be a doctor how to be a nurse you know or Flight Training whatever so anyway her thesis is if you at least start you have somewhere to pick up progress on every day see once you're at your 10th hour it's easier to add your 11th Hour uh and and this is an interesting thesis too that it's much easier to go from 10 to 11 than it is from 0 to 1 because 0 to1 is like ignition it it takes like a lot of power out of you to do it uh whereas you know 10 to 11 is like I'm already cruising man whatever one extra hour big deal you know I'm at what 115 hours of Flight Training what's an extra hour go I'll do another hour tonight I'll probably do another four hours tonight you know so anyway uh if you never start the clock is always taking anyway and it just takes away from you so you may as well start okay Dad joke of the day uh I um here it is just just bought myself a new blindfold I can't see myself wearing it lifestyle updates I'm going to slowly start including some of these just at the end uh it might just be a picture of the family or a video clip or something like that I just wanted to mention uh that in this picture there's something very important here do you see the truck that's parked next to the Cyber Tru yeah I think it's a Ford or whatever it was I can't remember what it was but but it's a truck and usually when you get out of your cyber truck lowers to make it easier for you to get out and uh because I was parked next to another truck I I I couldn't let my truck look smaller so what I actually did is I hit raised to max level and then I got out of the truck so uh it looks a lot better thank you for watching today's me Kevin report we'll see you tomorrow bye
Comments 0