저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
요약 보기
개인이 자신의 생활·산업 경험을 살려 기업을 이해하고 주식을 고르면 유리하다는 주장. 주식 보유 비중은 1960년 40%에서 2000년대 초 17%로 감소했는데, 80년대 최고의 주식 시장에서도 개인들은 잘못된 방법으로 손해를 봤다고 지적. 금리·경기·통화량 등 거시 변수는 예측 불가능하므로 기업 실적에 집중해야 하며, 기업 실적이 장기적으로 주가를 결정한다고 강조. 아무 기업이나 사기보다 이해 가능한 기업에만 투자하고, 이해 안 되면 은행에 두라는 조언.
다듬은 글
People don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them. That's bad number one. But worse, number two, if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chess, you're not going out and try it. But people are buying stocks anyway. They're not discouraged.
주식 투자 강연 시작
They just think it's a gamble. Yeah. We began with Peter Lynch. Time magazine has called him America's number one money manager. During the 13 years he headed the Fidelity Magellan Fund. It was a top-ranked general equity mutual fund. His new book, Beating the Street, offers advice on picking stocks and maximizing profits.
피터 린치 소개
And he's here to talk to us about a lot of things. Peter, welcome to the broadcast. You wrote a book called One Up on Wall Street. And I think that's one of the bestselling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not correct. You can correct me. And so, so why then did you write another book Okay. Okay.
『이기는 주식』 집필 배경
I think the reason I wrote it, it was the first I tried to explain to people their great advantages, their edges they have and that they should get involved in stocks and they should do it on the right basis. This was on the first book, right? Yeah. And obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in stocks has gone down.
주식 보유 비중 감소 원인
In 1960 people had 40% of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds. In 80 that was down to 25%. It's now down to 17%. And why do you think that is? Well, I think people in the 80s was the best decade this century for stocks. I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it themselves because their their methods were so flawed.
여성 스타킹 사례와 종목 선정
So I I really feel as though I want people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock. I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock, you should do certain things. If you're not willing to do these things, you should leave your money in the bank. Your philosophy is is simple and I'm remembering this from the previous book.
기업 이익과 주가의 관계
I think we're now talking about the previous book. Correct. Your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with. I remember there was a story of your wife and her hose. Your wife kept saying these are legs and panic. Your wife said, "These are the greatest things I've ever seen." And when your wife said that, you knew that this was a product that was better.
금리·경기 예측의 한계
You used to stay at La Quinta Motel and the service was better, whatever was better. And the price was good, too. And you said, "This is a place that I can determine. I, Peter Lynch, can tell that this is a good product." Right. And if these people making a good product, then their earnings are going to go up.
1982년 경기침체 회상
Therefore, the stock's going to go up. And I that's the kind of decision-making process you ought to go through, right? Do I have it? You've got it exactly right. Well, I do I don't think people understand there's a 100% correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock.
레스토랑 업종 투자 조언
If the company McDonald's has done very well as a company, right, the stock has done very well. People worry about too much money supply, what's happened to the price of oil, who's the president, who's being nominated for the Supreme Court, the ozone layer, it has nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years, the stock will go up.
자기 강점 활용의 중요성
Yeah. What they will say to you, Peter, is that as you know, and why am I telling you this, but it's fun to tell you this. They're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company. If we're in a recession, people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do.
And therefore, you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on earnings. They are very important, but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do. Alan Greenspan is the head of the Federal Reserve. He cannot predict interest rates. Yes, he'd be the first to influence them, but he can't predict them.
He cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now, two years from now, three years. He's even surprised how low they are now, right? So, how am I supposed to predict interest rates? How am I supposed to predict the economy? You certainly remember the recession of 82. 1982, we had a 20% prime rate, 14% unemployment, 12% inflation.
I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen. All of a sudden, we had the worst recession since the depression. I didn't read about in the paper. So, it's crazy to think about these things. Here's a quote from you. I own Dunkin' Donuts. When you own Dunkin' Donuts, you don't have to worry about Korean imports.
You don't have to worry about M2 or M3. These are money supply figures, aren't they? And and what's happening to the money supply. This is the way you make money. If you don't understand what the company does, you should not be in it. If you could predict the stock market, you could predict the economy.
You could predict interest rates. If you go buy the wrong stocks, you're going to lose half your money anyway. Right? I'm saying people have natural advantages. Yeah. Let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry, right? You supply paper products. You supply kitchen equipment.
You help build restaurants. You saw McDonald's. You saw cheats. You saw Chili's, you saw Cracker Barrel, you saw Dunkin' Donuts, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Taco Bell. These are all success stories. These these were 40 40fold. You made 40 to 50 times your money. You don't need to make that kind of money many times your life, right?
No. That's all you had to do was follow the restaurant industry. People are in industries. They're in the publishing industry. They're in the chemical industry, the paper. Why don't they just stay with that industry? You only need a few stocks a decade. How many good stocks you need a lifetime? Instead of people, they're in the restaurant industry.
They're buying biotechnology stocks. The people in the chemical industry, the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks. It's absolutely absurd. People don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them. So that's that's bad number one. But worse, number two, if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good chess, you're not going out and try
댓글 0