저자: Cory · 외국인
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2022년 4월 말 하락장 분석. 금요일 대폭락 후 SPY는 428 저항에서 되돌림 후 하락 재개, 390 목표를 제시하며 5월 10일 전후 투매(capitulation) 가능성을 언급. 이후 단기 반등(데드캣 바운스) 가능성도 열어둠. 나스닥100·다우·러셀2000·VIX·비트코인·금융/산업/헬스케어/에너지 섹터 모두 약세 추세로 평가, 추세 전환 확인 전까지 숏/관망 권고.
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friday in the stock market we had a massive sell-off as we're starting to break down to new lows and breaking through some critical support are we about to go straight down and see capitulation now or are we due for a counter-trend rally before we see the next leg lower friday we were down 3.7 on the s p 500 and we can now see that was just a dead cat bounce back up to resistance at 428 and now we're starting to flush back to the downside and we did flush down on increasing volume so as i always say anytime you start to see high volume selling and slicing through critical support you need to be extremely risk off because there is always going to be the possibility of panic selling and full-blown capitulation so i think many of you are well-versed in the bear market scenario but just in case you haven't seen it we did finish his first leg lower we bounced for this next leg higher which was just a bear market relief rally and now we're expecting to see this final leg lower to take us down to about spy 390.
now there is no guarantee this has to happen but this is more than likely the market structure you need to favor until we break out of the downtrend so i always say the trend is your friend and we clearly have a bear trend and we clearly have bearish price action so you should be expecting to see spy trending down towards 390 until we get a bullish breakout a bullish breakout at this point is getting back over the 430s and 440s and not any sooner any bounce lower than the 330s and 340s should be considered a dead cat bounce a relief rally bounce before more downside or just a counter trend rally before we finish out this next leg lower now there is the possibility we go straight down to that price target now and get that full-blown capitulation in a straight line with no bounces and go hit the 390s by let's call it may 10th if you just go by market symmetry and we draw all of the bottoms that we were bouncing off of it looks like if we went down in a straight line we would hit support right around may 10th and then we would start to see that monster counter trend rally which could take us all the way back up into the 430s or 440s but we would be coming off of a significant low from the 390s or 380s so that would be a very face ripping rally which would only be a bear trend relief rally because we don't know we're getting out of the bear trend until we get a bullish breakout in the price action so it's very important with today's analysis to zoom out and understand the big picture and the big picture is that spy is trying to get down to about 400 to close the gap and more than likely down to about 390 to 393 and yes it could still go lower than that but that is where you should be expecting spy to continue to trend towards now one more thing we need to talk about because this is a very real possibility is that we are going to see some sort of significant bounce off of the previous low and we are going to get that bear market counter trend relief rally sooner rather than later and then get that next leg lower later on in the month of may so don't rule out the possibility that we're due for a very strong bounce in the short term before we see the next leg lower and there's no way you're going to know which scenario is going to play out unless you follow the price action and you're waiting for some sort of reversal and you're looking at smaller time frames like an hourly or 30 minute chart if we start to see momentum reversing off of support and we start to make higher highs and higher lows on lower time frames that could be the counter trend rally that leads to the short squeeze that helps us get the bigger counter trend rally to go up and hit resistance now if you're looking at shorter time frames and we just continue to form lower highs and lower lows then you're looking for eventually that full-blown capitulation as everybody just gives up dumps out of their position and gets forced liquidated because their stop losses are being triggered and then after that liquidation event we would expect to see the very strong bear trend counter relief rally so there is a lot to consider and you're going to need to be very risk off and if you don't know how to trade a volatile market you're much better off to just sit on the sidelines and wait to see more clarity and wait until we either get a bullish breakout or a confirmed trend reversal before you start making any moves now if you want to trade volatility make sure you're only following the very strong resistance and very strong support levels and make sure you're not getting too risky when we're in between support and resistance because that is more than likely where you're going to get whipsawed the most so going into the training session next week you are looking for capitulation below 410 on spy or you're looking for the strong counter trend bounce to start nearly immediately off of these strong support levels that could take us back up to retest 428 or 433.5 and if we do start to break out about 438 we could have already seen the bottom and we're starting to go back into a bull trend now we won't know we break out of the bear trend until we get the bullish break out in the price action and the confirmation of a successful retest so if we get the breakout we come back and we test that level as support and then we bounce and take out the previous high that should be enough confirmation that the bear trend is over and we're more than likely not going to see a prolonged bear market past what we've already seen now obviously we have no idea that's going to happen so you need to wait for the price action to confirm it wait for the bullish breakout and wait for the confirmation and there's no way that's going to happen overnight this is a very strong downtrend and it's going to take a lot of work to reverse from a very strong downtrend and going back into a bull trend so you need to continue to short at resistance or only buy at very strong support or wait for those very strong dead cat bounces so look for a rejection at 416 to send us lower or a breakout above 416 to send us back up to re-test resistance around 428-433 below 410 we're looking for that full-blown capitulation and we should see selling picking up very quickly as we get down to 400 and 390 in a flash remember panic selling is the elevator down so don't expect it to take long it could just be a matter of a day or two before we go all the way down to that target this is not the type of market that's going to take its time to the downside it's going to happen very quickly as everybody is panic selling and starting to unwind their positions on the nasdaq 100 triple q's we have a very similar story of spy breaking down to a new low and breaking down below critical support and the next critical support level is down here right around 303.5 but of course there's always the possibility that we're already starting to get that liquidation and we're going to see the bounce sooner rather than later so if you're looking for a balance you're looking for support around 311 to 313 but below 311 it should be a very quick trip down to 303.5 and we should have strong support below that right around 285 to 290.
so if we do start to balance you're looking for a re-test of the highs right around 328 or a re-test of critical resistance at 334 and 341 and we're not seeing the bullish breakout until we start closing above 347 and 357. so again this is a very strong downtrend which is very evident by the price action and the moving averages so don't get bullish until we see a bullish break out in the price action you could still play dead cat bounces off a strong support but going with the direction of the trend you're looking to short at strong resistance until we get the bullish breakout so look at those levels right around 334 to 341 and really strong resistance at 347.
don't rule out the possibility we need another counter trend rally before we can finish out that next leg lower and also don't rule out the possibility that this is going to be the bottoming pattern and we already are putting in a critical bottom for the year nobody knows for sure so just understand the scenarios and follow the price action another thing to notice on the triple q's is that we do have volume starting to fall off so it's a little different looking than spy remember the tech sector is already in a bear market already drawing down over 20 from the previous all-time high so it could be possible the tech sector is going to bottom before the rest of the market and that's why we could see the triple q's already forming brand new yearly lows so if you start to see the volume dropping off as we continue to sell off that will be an indication that the sellers are getting exhausted and everybody that wanted to sell already did on the dow jones we were down 2.83 on friday and we did see a very massive sell-off way below the lower bollinger band and we're very close to hitting our price target at 326.
remember i told you we had a confirmed double top and we did break below the neckline and we have been flushing down towards that price target ever since so once we hit that price target at 326 it's possible the dow jones has all the downside it's looking for and we could start to see the counter trend rally the counter trend rally could take us up to 340 or the resistance trendline around 344 or to fill the gap at 3 47 which would be a bullish breakout of the resistance trend line so you're getting a lot more bullish on the dow if it can start breaking above 347 and 350 but not any sooner than that yes we could get dead cat bounces and counter trend rallies from here but we have the bear trend and we have the bearish price action so continue to expect lower prices until we get the bullish breakout if we break below 326 your next very critical support is at 322.6 so watch those two very critical support levels on the russell 2000 we were down 2.89 as we see a rejection at that resistance right around 191 which was the confirmation of the bearish breakdown and now we have more confirmation of a successful rejection at resistance so from here you're looking for the price target down there at 170 but on the way down we will have support at 183 and 177 so respect the fact that this is in a confirmed bear market and has much lower price targets and you're not getting bullish until it can close above 203 or 208.
on the rk etf we were down 3.56 on friday and we did confirm a rejection at 50 as we continue to close lower so rk is more than likely heading down to the next price target at 40 even though we could get a counter trend rally before we hit that price target a counter trend rally could take us back up to retest resistance at 52 or our resistance zone right around 58 to about 60.
if we get the bullish breakout above 60 you're looking for the gap close at 66. this is a very strong bear market so do not get bullish on this etf and continue to short it at resistance until it gets a bullish breakout on the vix we were up 11.37 on friday and the vix is confirming another bullish breakout above 30 closing just above 33.
so remember when the vix is above 30 you're going to see that massive panic selling and that's exactly what we saw on friday you can't get bullish until the vix starts to cool off so we need to see the vix starting to close back below 24 and you need to remain extremely cautious while the vix is elevated above 24 and extremely cautious when it's elevated above 30.
this is how capitulations begin with the vix starting the spike as everybody is panicking so continue to be cautious while the vix is above 30. on bitcoin we're currently trading right around 38 000 and so far we have not had a successful breakout of resistance at 39 000 and we still have the bear trend so at this point it looks like a no-brainer that we're coming back down to re-test support at 37 000.
if we break below 37 000 you're looking for a retest of support right around the 30 000 zone otherwise you're looking for a bullish breakout above 42 000 and above our resistance trend line break out around 43 000. don't get bullish until we see the bullish breakout because we do have a strong bear trend which means we could see much lower prices just a quick heads up i will be doing a separate video for all of the big tech companies because i do think it's important to look at those names after earnings so if you're looking for the typical analysis on other stocks like apple and tesla go look for that other video now on the financial sector we were down 3.44 on friday and this is an extremely bearish look on the financials remember if we see the financials going into a bear market that's going to be extremely bearish for the market as a whole and right now we see the financials in a very strong bear trend slicing right down through that support zone right around 35 so you need to be very risk off until we get back over the 50 ema on the industrials we were down 2.65 with more bearish price action and a very strong bear trend so continue to be cautious below the 50 ema on the healthcare sector we were down 2.57 percent still with bearish price action and still developing a bear trend the energy sector was down 2.57 today confirming our suspicion that we're going to form a lower high before we continue to finish out this correction so get ready to see another leg lower in the energy sector unless we can get a bullish breakout above 77.5 so jumping back over the s p 500 just be very cautious going into next week because we could see a very volatile whip saw that takes you down to new lows right before a face ripping rally to strong resistance and it is going to be an extremely volatile market until we see where this thing wants to bottom out and until we find some sort of critical support that brings buyers back into this market it's a very strong downtrend until we get the bullish breakout so continue to expect lower highs and lower lows until we see a bullish price action breakout and we start seeing higher highs and higher lows on the chart the trend is your friend so do not go against this strong bear trend because you never know how low a bear market can go and you don't want to get caught trying to catch a bottom if we are going much much lower than this so be extremely cautious and extremely risk off until we see some sort of shift in the price action in the trend or continue to short this market at resistance and don't forget to cover your short positions at strong support levels so that you don't lose your profits if we get a strong bounce expect this year to continue to be a very bumpy ride as we get through the summer i don't see this changing anytime soon until we see some sort of bullish price action -in sellers directly via email and text message even in 2008 during that very powerful bear market bank trailers beat the market and had a very positive return that year by clicking on the link in the description of the e ideas to server
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