저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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6월 고용보고서가 예상(230k)보다 약한 209k로 발표됐다. 민간 임금상승률은 0.4%로 정체, 전년비 임금은 4.4%로 상향 수정됐다. 전월치는 하향 수정됐고 실업률은 3.6%였다. 파트타임(경기 사유) 증가 452k는 6년 만의 최대 수준 증가로 해석된다. 발표자는 단기적으로 임금 상승과 저고용이 겹치는 스태그플레이션 위험(약 3개월)을 우려하며, 연준의 추가 인상 우려를 언급했다. 시장은 약세 지표에도 나스닥 등이 상승 반응을 보였다.
다듬은 글
jobs data is coming out right now we are waiting for jobs dad expecting 230 and we got 209 it comes in soft oh wow okay well the Market's gonna like that I was hoping it'd be stronger but okay change in private payrolls comes in at 149 instead of 200 000. that's also soft the uh average hourly earnings oh no that's not good it comes in at point four versus point three that's not great average hourly earnings year over year comes in at 4.4 versus 4.2 the labor force participation rate is 62.6 the unemployment rate stays uh or actually does come in at 3.6 as expected I don't love that see that's actually the opposite of what I would have preferred to have seen I would have preferred a stronger jobs report with lower average hourly earnings gains but no we actually got to take up an average hourly earnings and a weaker report so you know the stock market is actually going up on this which is just like stupid but uh okay uh then we actually got a downward revision last time oh interesting and uh we got a downward a negative revision here on uh wage gains for last time so not great we got uh a 0.3 was the prior average hourly earnings uh wage growth level that we had that went to 0.4 okay well at least we didn't go up we basically are stable at 0.4 which roughly aligns with what you see in the ADP report but this is a lot weaker than the ADP report for um the prior payrolls report of 339 that got adjusted down to 306.
so got a downward revision here as well and then you've got the average hourly earnings year over year that got revised up to 4.4 versus the 4.3 that we had so in English what just happened here well you actually got weaker job you got a weaker jobs report the private ADP report came in strong but they measure things differently than the official Bureau of Labor Statistics generally the BLS report is the one that everybody really cares about and the FED really cares about though the ADP report can be a little bit of a fact check tool for us what I really like looking at in the ADP report is the hourly earnings we like to see hey what's going on with average hourly earnings and yesterday's ADP report was actually pretty great job stayers had paid or gains of about 6.4 percent job Changers at about 11.2 percent these are year over year numbers but those numbers were all falling right insistently falling we did get on the unfortunate news that in this PLS report you are stable at about 0.4 on wage gains we'd like to see that come down 0.4 is unfortunately consistent with 4.8 percent inflation for on a yearly basis uh that is not great because 4.8 on a yearly basis is well above the three percent Target that the FED has for wage growth note that is not two percent didn't misspeak it is three percent is the fed's wage growth Target but uh we're sitting at about 4.8 right now so it is less than what it has been in the past but it's just not we'd prefer three uh right or 3.6 anyway so uh non-farm payroll increased 209 000.
a lot of estimates here coming out that uh you're going to see negative payroll prints soon and that is recessionary negative numbers are recessionary so you want this to be positive um all right this news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys the household survey and the labor force participation survey via the establishment survey household survey data all right let's see says six million unchanged here 3.6 percent unemployment rate has ranged 3.4 to 3.7 since March of 2022 uh White unemployment declined 3.1 percent adult men 3.4 women 3.1 teenagers 11 black six percent uh Asian uh 3.2 Hispanic 4.3 little changed long-term unemployed a little changed labor force participation 62 6 4th consecutive month in a row part-time employment for economic reasons increased by 452.
reflecting an increase in the number of persons oh look at this whose hours were cut due to slack or business conditions so you're getting more people working part-time right now because their hours are getting cut now this is a new line right here I don't believe we've seen this in the prior labor reports for economic reasons individuals who would have preferred full-time employment but were working part-time because their hours have been reduced or were unable to find full-time jobs folks keep in mind this is the first Miss that we've gotten since April of 2022 first Miss since April 2022.
that's uh what is that 13 14 15 15 months all right let's keep going here all right the number of persons not in the labor force were currently won a job was 5.4 million in June little change from the prior month these individuals were not counted as employed or unemployed rather because uh they're not actively looking for a job fine get get off the chair and go look for a job well that'd be Ben Muller for it anyway among those not in the labor force who wanted to jump the number of persons marginally attached to labor force was a little changed at uh let's see here that's fine 1.4 million these individuals wanted and were available for work fine uh The Establishment survey was the 209 000.
okay let's see here not Farm employment was an average of 278 per month over the first six months of 2023 lower than the 399 average per month of 2022. now that's important so last year we're trending at basically 400 000 jobs this year we're trading at 278 000 jobs however now we're down to 209 so uh Wall Street here is saying this is not the best picture for the FED unemployment rate falling with participation rate uh uh holding steady and wages up a bit signaling uh somewhat that you still need tightening but you this is what you know some of the commentary here but you've got that average uh um average wage gain at point four percent which again is like hey it's still not fully biting the feds work here average work week lengthened a bit to 34.4 hours it's interesting to some extent what you're finding is uh if if hours are going up but more people are working part-time are you putting more work on the people that you're kind of keeping around right that that is interesting so okay uh let's see here first yeah okay okay we got that we got that that's uh okay I'm just looking at commentary here as well keep in mind that after the blowout surge in private sector payroll suggested by the ADP report this payrolls figure is quite a lot softer than the market would have expected yeah no kidding it's so bizarre the stock market's actually going up on this whatever anyway employment in the government increased by 60 000 in June fine uh Healthcare added 41 000 we've got social assistance adding 24 000 construction 23 000.
you've got 15K uh on average in construction you're up above that at twenty three thousand in June employment and residential trade contractors continued up so construction continues to go home builders are really pushing numbers uh right now it's it's pretty remarkable let's see what Nick T is saying as well uh while I pull up what Nick T is saying I have a feeling what he's going to say is that you should check out the coupon on building your wealth link down below and uh the fact that you can now Shadow us again when we go hunt for Real Estate I'll link down below if we travel you travel with us if we're local you're local with us so check that out okay so Nick T quickly just to see his commentary the U.S economy added 209 000 jobs in June a revision subtracted 110 000 the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.6 from 3.7 uh this gives you here some of his charts private sector payroll growth three-month average here's your three-month average plummeting which isn't great because remember a labor is a lagging indicator so these you know when this starts going down you really start knocking on the door of of uh recessionary concerns not fantastic I don't I don't I don't love it when that number goes down so I actually would have preferred a stronger report here but oh well you can always get you what you wear man employment and Leisure Hospitality was little changed according to this employment report that I just also find someone hard to believe but okay this marks the third consecutive month of little employment change for leisure and Hospitality in other words people who are going to be employed by Leisure and Hospitality are already employed which is very different from that ADP survey but okay shows you the volatility of the data employment in professional and business services little change 21k retail trade negative 11k over here at retail trade uh employment continued to decline at building material and garden center and Supply dealers as well as in furniture motor vehicle parts added 6K jobs Transportation down 7K a little changed little change in oil gas manufacturing I.T finance activities quarrying and others here's your average hourly earnings 33.58 that is a bump again of uh 0.4 percent on a month over month basis you've got the prior revision which we've already reviewed uh now let's go ahead and get the uh the actual households data as well so they always make this a little funny to get but we can get this household data there we go labor force change from May to June 133 000 if I'm reading this right hold on let me put this in I always have just in full transparency there's there's so many charts they give you here I always have trouble reading this so I'm gonna just take a breath here and we're gonna look at this one slowly together but it's important because remember you have two surveys you have the establishment survey which is uh your uh hey uh employers how many employees you got you know and then they count how many people they have on payroll and then you have the uh uh household survey which is like you know the BLS calling uh households saying yo you got a job they're like yo yeah I got a job well the problem with that difference is the payrolls one could count that same person multiple times so it tends to be a little higher right here in the household survey oh yeah what do we have here well oh okay okay yeah see I always get to be careful with this the civilian labor force increased 133 000 but the employed portion of that labor force increased 273 000.
so you did have gains in both of them uh about above 200 000. but the payrolls was actually 209 which is interesting because usually payroll is higher so payrolls was 209. households 273. well I guess it just depends on who you're calling and that's why this is why you generally like to use averages when you're looking at these particular charts which you could jump on over uh as we've seen to the Wall Street Journal via Nick t or they also give us tables here but this gives you an example on screen now what it looks like when when you get a little bit more of a charter Trend uh and then of course you can you can churn this out as a three month average as well which just helps us get a little bit of a better understanding since the numbers are a bit volatile so if I go for let's see here and I want to grab a little bit more information here okay there we go okay so looking at the rest of this report job levers see this is actually a good thing right here you generally don't want to see job levers jumping uh much 29 000 is acceptable so that's great because job Believers implies that people are voluntarily leaving and uh they're leaving because they think they can get a better job but if you're part-time for economic reasons uh in you know increasing 452 000 that's uh that's quite a big bump could only find part-time work 124 slack or Biz slow business work 308 000.
uh these numbers trending up see how we've been June 2022 and we have April May June okay so last year is here and then April May June so you can see some volatility in the numbers over here it kind of looks like we've gone down to up uh for these numbers here compared to last year we're definitely above these though so only able to find part-time work because of slow business that's starting to really increase right here I'd be paying attention to this quite a bit that's that's a good one to pay attention to okay let's see what else the suits are saying and then we'll take a look at Market's reaction as well as rates so uh some commentary here that this report probably won't mean much for the fad that it would really take an employment report below a hundred thousand to get the FED to consider actually pausing but it you know what it probably is going to do is it's probably going to start reducing the odds of uh uh a second hike this might kill the second hike odds uh we're probably still going to get that July one even though I disagree with that idea of this sort of pause start nonsense uh it's probably what's going to happen uh let's see here okay we saw that participation rate was unchanged pickup and manufacturing employment really I didn't see that maybe because of all the spending on EVs and Battery plants is the suggestion here I'm not convinced by that let me see here manufacturing I thought was stable Manufacturing uh yeah I don't know where they're reading that it says here little change for manufacturing so I don't know why I mean it must have been a small pickup if they're noticing a pickup somewhere okay and again remember this is a lagging indicator uh you also have a service oh that's interesting help a temporary help service payroll so temporary help uh with uh with your business actually ticked down again also another leading indicator okay let's see okay let's look at treasury yields just to get a little bit more Market reaction note that a bounce back in the household survey Gage Rose by 273 000 in June in May there was a 310 000 job plunge that was a big contradiction so volatile on a month-over-month basis the data okay so now all of a sudden the market is green though you're up 39 bips on the NASDAQ 12 VIPs on the s p Dows up four and phase up 0.07 Tesla's up what 0.28 over here interesting uh and then what we have is we look at bonds we're actually still seeing the 10-year at with strength at up 1.9 basis points sitting at 4.06 if we look at the five-year break even it's ticked down a teeny little bit to 2.22 the terminal rate is still sitting at 5.41 so still a little bit of price again the second rate hike anything above 5.375 would be pricing in a little bit then you've got 91 8 is still your expectation 91.8 percent for uh the next hike and still sitting at 27 percent for uh September excuse me so okay that is pretty good let me quickly see what else what other kind of commentary it looks like we're getting uh uh let's see here no no other really good commentary other than this was the lowest uh and first Miss on a jobs report since April of last year pretty remarkable and again Market positive about this let me just reiterate why I'm not so positive about this the concern obviously is if wages are going up by the tune of about point four percent that's your your overall wage set and you continue with strong let's assume we continue with strong hiring in uh Leisure or hosp uh you're probably going to be in a place where spending in Leisure and hospitality is going to blow up and so there is this risk over the next three months and it's a short-term risk it's not going to be a long-term risk I I don't believe but I think there's a three-month risk that you end up with elevated wage gains uh low employment reports uh sticky or even slightly Rising core thanks to travel inflation right uh and then a Fed that's somewhat starts getting nervous that core inflation is rising and low employment sticks around which is somewhat I hate to say it stagflationary this is what you don't want I do think you have this short term three-month risk thanks to uh really summer travel here and summer spending so I I do think that creates some potential short-term headwinds for stocks even if it's just the fear that this could happen uh it's not it's not good because it it's gonna lead the FED to talk even dirtier to us it's not just a matter of the hike of one or two hikes it's it's the dirty t
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