저자: JennyHorn/발언중심분석가미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 1분기 인도량이 컨센서스 약 36만대를 크게 밑돌아 약 33.7만대로 집계, 전년 대비 13% 감소. 2분기 연속 인도량 감소 추세가 뚜렷하며 최근 월평균 인도량도 하락. 에너지 저장장치 배치량은 10.4GWh로 156% 증가해 유일한 성장 요인으로 언급. Model Y 전환 생산 차질이 원인으로 제시됨. 리비안도 큰 폭 감소. 주가는 하락 출발하며 회복에 상당한 시간이 걸릴 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
Jenny Horn, good morning. What's up? Good morning. Unfortunately, I bring nothing but but more doubt. Yeah. More uncertainty regarding to Tesla Tesla's first quarter, which was bad. I mean, I think you could you could say safely it was pretty bad. So, I I took a a consensus of the analysts that have been covering Tesla as of late because I feel like that that's more an updated guide of what we could expect.
360,000 is what street was expecting for their deliveries in the first quarter. We saw those come in now around 336,681. Well below what we had been expecting even versus the company's expectations. And also the lowest we've seen for deliveries in years, mind you. Like 55,000 they missed by alert cycle almost.
Yeah. Like not even close. And I mean what's amazing to me is like Faxat had still been guiding for over 400,000 in deliveries this quarter. I mean, we weren't even close to some of like the more bullish targets on on this figure. So, that that's concerning in itself. I also think concerning that we're seeing this continual contraction now from its deliveries where two delivery periods ago, we saw shares pop because it wasn't as bad as feared.
But it is time to acknowledge now this has been a broader trend. We've moved from an average of 470,000 deliveries per the the month to now averaging around 380. this even falls below its more recent and frankly downbeat average. So there's not a lot to like there. But also we did see the fact that within this report they did say that they deployed around 10.4 gawatt hours of energy storage products that actually marked 156% increase.
So that was maybe the only thing that you could say was growth and was maybe somewhat um substantial for Tesla now going forward. They did blame the Model Y changeover, noting that their factories lost several weeks of production in this quarter, which we we talked about heavily, but the ramp they said of Model Y continues to go well.
Specifically though, they did see that figure that was down 13% year-over-year. Rivian also saw a pretty substantial decline and also missed again pretty substantially as far as its for its delivery. So, collectively things not looking too great here in the US for these EVs. Okay, that um is definitely a big miss.
Stocks down as a result. I can get that. Uh market's also down as a whole and Tesla's been very high beta. So that checks out number one. Um the energy side, come back to that for a second because um yesterday with Chris Gershon from Altimus Capital, his big Tesla bull and uh invest in a bunch of energy companies and I mean he's uh in the camp that it is a energy play.
This is the growth engine. uh the fact that everybody's using their charging stations etc. Well, right and we highlighted the fact that like BYD is now making these charging capabilities that are much faster than Tesla. So, I think the fact that you're still seeing substantial growth says that there could be still two.
I mean, like it's not like one necessarily has to steal market share from the the other if demand is as substantial as what we read as far as is like the the bullish side of the energy deployment. I always think this number is actually really interesting when they give the these quarterly updates because it's been a a major growth driver.
Sure, it's a tiny portion of their business, right? But I think it signals the diversification and why those argue that Tesla's not valued like an auto company. Slowly but surely, that part of the business is bringing in more money, but obviously delivery is missing by 50,000 and the moving average sinking from above 400 uh adds on to some of the Tesla worries.
So, all right. Appreciate that. Uh good reason for Tesla to be down this morning. Stocks down too. Off to a rough start after a decent to recovery since Monday morning's selloff which was grosser than this one. So we have at least recent history of being able to recover these losses. Going to be an uphill battle though with Tesla under pressure after bad deliveries. Thanks Jenny.
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