저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Ives는 최근 기술주 매도는 펀더멘털보다 공포 주도이며 AI 수요(블랙웰 수급비 15:1)가 여전히 강하다고 주장. 엔비디아는 PEG 1 미만으로 싸다며 시총 4~5조 달러 전망, 테슬라는 자율주행 장기 스토리를 근거로 급락 시 매수 기회라고 봄. 알파벳의 대형 인수(32조 원 규모 Wiz)는 빅테크 M&A 가속 신호로 해석하며 알파벳에 긍정적. 사이버보안 섹터 성장과 미국 기술 우위를 강조.
다듬은 글
Time to bring in Mr. Dan Ives, managing director of equity research at Wedbush Securities on a day like this when it seems pal is going to give us something to go with at least to get us to stop selling. Dan, the question is which in your list of coverage is the best buy right now? My opinion this tech sell off I think a lot of is more fear driven than fundamental and I think that continues to be what we're talking about.
I mean in Asia demand to supply is 15 to1 for Blackwell. Last time we were there it's 12 to1. So so when I look at semis you look at names like Nvidia you look at software in terms of some of the hyperscalers. You look at names you know really across what I view as sort of the AI revolution names Palunteer among them cyber security.
I think these are the names that you own here playing the theme. The theme is not cracking that's more perception. Okay. Um, what did you learn from GTC and Nvidia uh yesterday in Jensen Wong? Uh, Dan, uh, please correct me if I'm wrong. It seemed like it was generally kind of an update on themes we mostly knew about and some pretty impressive numbers of how fast their chips are running, but uh, was there anything uh, additional?
Well, I think well, first off, I think being at GTC in terms of our team there, I mean, the developer feedback, it's off the charts. So I think it all comes down to the use cases and those are exploding. In terms of Jensen's keynote, I think it's really showing the holy grail is physical AI, autonomous robotics.
Clearly talking about Reuben, some other sort of initiatives down the road, but look, they really they own AI when it comes from a chip perspective. And I think that is sort of playing the flag showing that like despite all the fears, some of the deep sea wounds and everything else that's sort of Jensen out there, you know, hearing from the godfather of AI himself saying, "Look, it's our world, everyone else paying rent." Okay.
All right. So, uh, Nvidia then in terms of market leadership, I mean, this thing trades at a PEG ratio below one. So, the valuation argument is not a bearish one, right? Oh, it's I mean bullish everything. I'd say it's cheap. I mean relative like you when you look at it if you believe and all of our work shows that this is we're in year three of a 10-year buildout.
Nvidia is cheap. I continue to think this is going to be a 4 trillion and eventually $5 trillion market cap. And that's that's our view. I think you can you got to take the noise out. Me and you have talked about it over the years. I think in periods like this, you you got to look at the winners and where they're trading and where the names tone.
Okay. As far as um the uh other news this week, Alphabet's $ 32 billion uh whiz purchase, I guess maybe that removes uh one potential from the IPO list, but does it mean that that's going to uh kick off other deals? What is your main takeaway from that, Dan? Are you thinking about it from like an Alphabet specific perspective or more kind of like a macro theme as far as cyber security?
I'm thinking about when they took Khan's name off the door at FTC, right? It's sort of parties on, right? In in terms of from a tech perspective, I think tech M&A is going to massively accelerate. I'm not saying there's not going to be challenges. DOJ and others, but I mean, this is a shot across the bow.
It's the beginning. It's not this is not just a one-off. You're going to see strong get stronger. Big tech's going to continue to be aggressive on acquisitions, AI, software, cyber security, you know, quantum and others. And I think that's really the important thing here. Do you think it presents a fresh bull case for Alphabet?
The stock was down yesterday, but market was under pressure, too. So, I don't want to read into it too much. Seems like the market loves cyber security themes though and if they can start to overlap some of maybe some of Microsoft's businesses some of the other cloud players from a services standpoint.
Is this a fresh bold case? I think it's a fresh bold case even before. I mean I think this is way oversold in terms of antirust fears. I think them doing acquisitions important because it shows you know they're going on the offensive not defense. when you look from a sum of the parts in terms of AI with GCP when you look at advertising rebound that we're seeing I mean this is one on some of the parts two $225 stock so I I just think it's and then when you look at cyber security and you add that that's actually more bullish to the AI GCP theme does it present any headwinds competitively for a few of uh the other favorites Powalto Crowd Strike anything like that look I I think first of all it's not a zero sum game I mean this is going to be a golden age for cyber security and that's a pow out there continues to be a table pounder crowd strike one of our favorites cyber arc among many others now down the road could it be competitive at a point yeah but but I think in cyber security I mean we're still in the early days of this whole nextg buildout between cloud and AI it's going to drive that okay uh are there any deals when you talk about uh M&A are there any deals from the last uh year that got n you think might come back to the table or are there other big um potential tie-ups that you see that we should be looking for?
I think it's what you don't see, what we haven't heard, right? I mean, the point is is that when when Google does this deal, that sends a signal to everyone else in big tech in terms of deal making and I think it comes down to like, you know, IPO markets clearly been very bumpy and now it comes down for a lot of these private companies.
that's figuring out their paths. But the amount of capital that's out there in terms of strategic and financial buyers is is significant because we're in a fourth industrial revolution right now being built out across the board. A lot of these stocks sell off, you know, I think you'll continue to have M&A buyer strategic and financial.
Okay. All right. Uh so get us hyped u on the others in the group. Uh Dan, what about Tesla? What about the presidential premium? Uh it seems like it's evaporated now with Tesla full retracement back to its election level. Should that uh then be a entry point for us? Uh how are you gauging that stock right now?
I mean I I I continue to think Tesla along with Nvidia are two of the best disruptive technology players next decade. Now look, we've been through these white knuckle moments before. We've talked about I mean I think for M it is a moment of truth. there needs to be more balance, but this is not the time where I view you throwing the towel on Tesla.
You just well, how many times? Six times you've had 50% selloffs in the stock, you know, from how to I'm just saying like been there before. It's a really about the autonomous future and that continues to be the medium and long-term story. Okay. Well, you're looking for almost a double now from here.
550, right? You change that this week or last? Remind me. I know it was fresh. Yeah, last week. and and that that was top pick too. And look, I mean, my view is it's in times of nervousness that I think some of the best opportunities come out. And I think what we've seen intact to start the year, risk off across the board, and you got to just have more of a horizon to understand where everything is heading.
Okay. Uh is there any last point on uh Tesla? One of the other narratives this past week I want to get your take on is the Chinese competition. BYD apparently has got one heck of a charger and the Chinese stocks are part of this international trade. Does that reduce any of the flows that help support valuations in our mags?
Well, I think that's and I saw when I was in Asia a few weeks ago that definitely has played in I think a little in TAC where you have seen you know K web Baba a bunch of others get a bid and I think some of those are oversold to begin with. When you look at what BYD and others are doing, well, competition is obviously fierce, but it's not a zero- sum game.
I mean, when you look where everything is going in China, that's going to continue massive growth market, not just for BYD, Neo, and others, but for, of course, for Tesla. One extra followup then, Mr. Ives, last point here. Given your Asian travels and your interest in all things tech global, what do you make of this whole narrative that the US is like losing its supremacy all of a sudden because suddenly Germany wants to spend a little bit and China's not going to restrict their own companies?
Like don't we still have the best tech or is there stuff over there that's really challenging to us at these valuations? I mean that that's that's like being an NFL scout being negative on Brady 2000 draft, right? I mean the point is I like right now when it comes to US tech, US tech continues to be ahead of anywhere else including China tech and I think that might be like this near-term narrative but it's not going to last because globally when you look at AI revolution you look at where the tech infrastructure is.
It's in US. I just I that's a narrative I don't subscribe to and especially when you look at some of these I'd rather be in the left lane and Bugatti pay out for 90 mph than you know some of these Marg where it's a right lane minivan going 40. All right thanks Dan Ives always appreciate the colorful commentary. Good to catch up. Thanks
Comments 0