저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 단기 긴축과 장기 부채 문제로 2023년은 지역별로 차이가 있는 스태그네이션 국면이며, 2024년에는 정치적 갈등과 미중 대립이 심화될 수 있다. 거시 사이클: 단기 경기순환(평균 약 7년)과 장기 부채 사이클이 겹쳐 있으며, 중앙은행의 반복적 부양이 부채를 누적시킨다. 현재는 인플레이션을 잡기 위한 단기 긴축 국면이다. 달러와 통화 질서: 미국 달러의 기축통화 지위가 도전받고 있으며, 중국의 무역 비중 증가와 위안화 결제 확대, 외환보유 다변화가 그 배경이다. 시장 전망: 긴축이 시장과 글로벌 경제활동을 짓누르고 있으며 주요 시장은 고점 대비 크게 하락한 상태다. 2023년은 유럽·일본·미국·신흥국별로 차이가 있는 정체 국면으로 본다. 특정 자산의 방향이나 매수·매도 추천은 없다. 정치와 사회: 부의 격차와 가치관 격차가 정치적 양극화와 극단주의를 키우고 있다. 세금 인상, 전쟁, 화폐 증발 중 어떤 방식으로 부채 문제를 해결할지가 쟁점이다. 2024년은 정치적으로 중요한 해이며 내부 갈등이 정부 효율을 떨어뜨릴 수 있다. 미중 갈등: 무역전쟁, 기술전쟁, 지정학적 영향력 전쟁, 자본·경제전쟁, 군사전쟁의 다섯 유형 가운데 앞의 넷은 이미 진행 중이며 다섯 번째 위험도 존재한다고 본다. 분쟁을 해결할 국제 사법기구가 없다는 점이 문제다. 해법: 강한 국가가 되려면 지출보다 소득이 많고, 생산성을 높이고, 국민을 잘 교육하고, 내부 갈등을 줄여야 한다. 군사 충돌의 위험을 경계해야 한다.
다듬은 글
they stimulate more and more at those cycles and so the debt levels and and build up we um are in a situation where the power to do each other harm has advanced a normally enormously like great Technologies so the great Technologies of doing each other harm are greater than ever before so there must not be that so that fear of that we all should be fearful everyone in the world foreign Ray dalio the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund Bridgewater Associates talks about the financial system and its working money in the FED dalio explains how he sees the world right now and elaborates on the macroeconomic picture there's a short term that usually is a what they call a business cycle on average it's averaged about seven years in other words from recession to growth to Bubble to recession about on average seven years give or take about three years and those have added up over a period of time to a long-term debt cycle because debt levels have risen relative to income levels and the way it works mechanically is very cyclical because when you give credit you give buying power and but credit comes with debt and debt is the necessity to pay back and therefore when you pay back that is not stimulative that is depressing and so it produces that cycle and because central banks don't want the bad part of that they stimulate more and more at those cycles and so the debt levels and and build up um and one man's debts are another man's assets and so that Balancing Act continues and that's the cycle so in the world right now mostly led by the United States but other countries too particularly Western countries uh you're seeing it uh the cycle you're at the part of the cycle where there is the short-term cycle where there's a tightening of monetary policy and that tightening of monetary policy to fight inflation because you know the Cycle Works you put a lot of credit and and stimulate and you create a lot of debt and then it picks up the economy and then with that it produces inflation the amounts that were created are unprecedented except in the 1930 to 45 period the amounts of debt so they produced an inflation it should be not surprising you produce a lot of credit a lot of buying it produces a lot of inflation and so now you're seeing that tightness of monetary policy but still you're producing more debt than you are paying back in other words the spending is greater than the incomes of the United States and a number of countries and so that builds up so we're in the tightening part of the short-term debt cycle we're also at a stage in the cycle where the long-term debt cycle is a problem because there's a lot of paying back you cannot sustain uh spending more than you're earning because then that reduces the returns and so on so we um are in a situation where even uh the United States dollar as the world's Reserve currency is coming more into question um partially because the United States is no longer the dominant trading power so for example China accounts for a higher percentage of World Trade than the United States does and up until recently it did not denominate that trade in uh Chinese currency in remnb but increasingly there is a desire both on on the parts of those who are transacting internationally and and in China to increasingly diversify their reserves and their transactions and so you're seeing that um happen so um that's very relevant now that is happening at the same time as you as you point out as there's internal conflict and that internal conflict is a wealth conflict you know um there are big wealth gaps and with those big wealth gaps there are big values gaps and those you're seeing cause great political gaps and greater extremism so in other words is this resolve this financial situation is this resolved through taxing the rich war or transferring wealth and because taxing anybody is politically challenging do you see more printing of money but it has an economic impact and it also creates an anger internally and so you're seeing that polarity the conflict that we saw on January 6th by way of example or that which is going on with Brazil and and exists in a number of countries is that gap between the wealth and also the gap between the values of how a country should operate very classic left and right so we're seeing those things operate so as we look ahead we see a tightening of monetary policy having a depressing effect on markets markets are down significantly from their highs most markets are and then you're seeing it have an effect on global economic activity uh generally speaking we can talk about China separately it operates more independently but if you take the world outside of China that's the pattern and so if you look at 20 2023 2023 because of the tightness and monetary policy will be a a year of stag relative stagflation relative stagnation depending on the world you look at different parts there's Europe there's Japan there's the United States and then there's emerging countries many emerging countries um and then we could talk about China if you like um um it has its issues so then 24 will be another political year a very important political year I and populism is a um win at all cost type of operation so when you see for example recently when you see a trouble of Republicans to find the house leadership and you see um extremists um block and win it all try to win at all costs you see these this degree of internal conflict that affects the effectiveness of government and it also will mean in 2024 there'll be a big conflict so that's what it looks like uh to me almost Destiny when you follow these Cycles you see that when there are domestic problems that light such as what we're talking about um and then the gap between world powers Narrows that there is no longer um a matter of um the conflict uh tends is has a high probability of rising because like in 19 um when this world order began the American World Order in 1945 the United States accounted for half the world's economy it had 80 percent of the world's money which was gold at the time it had a military dominance and so of course there was not going to be the same kind of conflict the conflict with the Soviet Union was not um comparable because there was not comparable economic conflict but now when you have suffering at home there is yes there's blame there are sections a lot of populism goes back to whether you lost your job and why did you lose your job and it's a combination of um the the billionaires at home and the technology and the Chinese um outside is is is the perception if there was not before there was an appreciation to be able to buy things inexpensively from China and to be able to change ex trade that for the debt you know wow I remember when um per capita income in China was 140th the United States and China lent money to the United States to buy Chinese Goods and that was once a good deal and now it's resentment so you start to see the populism happen for that reason but um if there was not a comparability in power between the two countries there still wouldn't be a fight but with this comparability um the world doesn't have a world Court they don't have a way of resolving it and so there's conflicts and in history and now there are five kinds of Wars there's a trade War a technology War a geopolitical influence War a capital and economic war and a military war and we are certainly in the first four of those and there are risks about the fifth and so um it's all it's very difficult to get out of um because how are such disputes resolved so there's a cert there's a conflict that history has shown over and over to be the case but you're right to focus on domestic at the end of the day though if if you want to be the most powerful and win a war be strong domestically be strong domestically and that has to do with the basics earn more than you spend be productive educate your population well be civil don't have internal conflicts and so um both domestically and internationally these basic fundamentals foreign more than you spend be civil with each other work well together and all of those are what will determine the strength so yes there's a there's a destiny to this there's almost a you know a very very big pull not just because of patterns but the patterns happen because of reasons that now exist what you do about it first I think is to recognize that you should be very fearful about a military conflict each side because the power to do each other harm has Advanced an anomaly enormously like great Technologies so the great Technologies of doing each other harm are greater than ever before so there must not be that so that fear of that we all should be fearful everyone in the world should be fearful of that competitions are going to change I think they'll intensify trade War technology War geopolitical influence more economic um and capital Wars I think that those who and and that'll be a test of the strength of the two systems so that I think that that's what we're looking forward to so we must not have that military war
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