저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 2023년 이후 대침체가 2008년 금융위기보다 훨씬 심각하게 올 것이며, 연준의 금리인하 기대는 현실적이지 않다. 증시 현황: 12월 나스닥 -8.8%, 러셀2000 -6.7%, S&P500 -5.8%, 다우 -4% 수준으로 2022년 12월은 다우·S&P 기준 1932년 이후 최악의 12월이라고 언급. 연준 전망: 2018년 12월과 유사하게 연준이 경기 악화에도 긴축을 고수하고 있으며, 2019년 1월 피벗이 랠리를 만들었듯 이번에는 인플레이션이 목표(2%) 위에 있어 구조제 피벗 가능성이 낮다고 봄. 금리 전망: 인플레이션을 2%로 낮춘 뒤에도 금리는 제로로 돌아갈 수 없고 정상금리는 인플레이션보다 높아야 한다고 주장. 연준이 충분히 긴축하지 않으면 인플레이션을 잡지 못한다고 봄. 경기침체 전망: 대부분 애널리스트가 내년 침체를 예상하지만 대부분 '얕고 짧은' 침체로 본다는 점에서 컨센서스가 틀렸다고 봄. 제로금리·4차 양적완화가 만든 버블 때문에 침체는 매우 깊고 길며 2008년보다 나쁠 것이라고 주장. 재정 리스크: 1.7조 달러 옴니버스 지출법안과 우크라이나 추가 원조(올해 누적 약 1130억 달러)를 비판하며, 정부 지출을 세금 없이 조달하려 인플레이션을 통한 '숨은 세금'이 계속된다고 주장. 정부가 지출을 줄이지 않는 한 인플레이션을 연준이 잡을 수 없다고 봄. 정책 결론: 정치권은 책임을 연준과 외부 요인에 돌리며 근본 원인인 재정적자를 해결하지 않는다고 비판.
다듬은 글
we're gonna have the mother of all recessions it's going to be worse than the recession of 2007-2008 which we now call the Great Recession so this one's going to be greater than that so either we're going to have to rename that recession or come up with an even more ominous name for the one that we're already in but is going to get much worse in 2023 and probably Beyond [ we are running out of time for that Santa Claus rally only the Dow Jones finished the week in the black and just barely it eeked out a gain of about 0.85 of a percent but all the other major indexes were down although the losses were minimal in the s p and the Russell 2000 those indexes were down about two tenths of a percent but it was a rough week on the NASDAQ which was down two and a half percent bringing its total decline for the month of December up to 8.8 percent Russell 2000 is down 6.7 percent so far in December s p downed 5.8 percent and the Dow down four percent now we still have one more week to try to recover those losses and maybe get that Santa Claus rally normally you get the Santa cross rally Before Christmas although in 2018 we got a big Santa Claus rally after Christmas but it wasn't a big enough rally to prevent December from being the worst December for the s p and the Dow since 1932 I believe and for the NASDAQ it was the worst December in the history of the NASDAQ which doesn't go back nearly as long as the S appeared it out but one of the things that reminds me of December 2018 is that back then the Fed was Raising interest rates and posturing as if it was going to keep raising rates that it was committed to this policy of rate hikes and quantitative tightening but it maintained that stance in the face of weakening economic data in fact the data was very weak yet the Fed was oblivious to that data and instead was focusing on its commitment to return to normal interest rates and Shrink its balance sheet and so because the Fed was so Resolute in that commitment meant the markets were tanking and what ultimately happened is Powell pivoted in January and that's really what started the rally in late December was the anticipation of the pivot which we ultimately got the big difference of course is back then we didn't have an inflation problem on our hands so the Fed was able to come up with an excuse to Pivot because inflation was still below its supposedly two percent Target on the other hand right now inflation is still well above that Target and so the FED riding to the rescue to save the market with a pivot seems a lot less likely this January than it was in January of 2019.
now the FED didn't immediately start cutting rates in January but it certainly telegraphed that the trajectory of increases was going to slow down and we ultimately did get some rate cuts the FED initially described them as a mid-course correction but of course I pointed out in real time that was just BS that was the big beginning of the move back down to zero and that's exactly what happened of course it took a pandemic to get us to zero but if it wasn't the pandemic it would have been something else and of course we ended up with qe4 which I always knew was coming and in fact I always said that qe4 would be bigger than qe12 and 3 combined and I was right on that as well so the reason that December of this year reminds me of December of 2018 is you have a similar situation where you have the FED committed to raid hikes despite the fact that the economic data continues to deteriorate and if we're not already in a recession and I believe that we are even if it hasn't been officially declared we will surely be in a recession next year in fact it seems almost unanimous just about every analyst and every representative from any major U.S company they're all saying that we're going to be in recession next year that is very rare normally if a recession is coming nobody other than me maybe sees it coming people are extremely reluctant to forecast a recession but now it seems like everybody has a recession in their forecast now the contrarian in me might say wait a minute if everybody expects a recession maybe we're not going to get one well the reason I still think you could be a contrarian here is because everybody agrees that the recession is going to be mild it's going to be short it's going to be shallow so in other words it's no big deal so in that respect the consensus is still wrong because there's no way this recession is going to be shallow it is going to be extremely deep and it's going to be long lasting and it's probably going to include a worse financial crisis in 2008.
think about it there's no way that this recession could be mild as I've mentioned on this podcast recessions generally are proportionate to the Booms that precede them and those booms typically result from the mistakes that are made when the FED keeps interest rates artificially low and so the lower the FED keeps rates and the longer it keeps them low the more mistakes get made well we've had near zero percent interest rates for over a decade we had four rounds of quantitative easing the FED inflated the mother of all bubbles it's not going to be followed by itsy bitsy recession we're going to have the mother of all recessions it's going to be worse than the recession of 2007-2008 which we now call the Great Recession so this one's going to be greater than that so either we're going to have to rename that recession or come up with an even more ominous name for the one that we're already in but is going to get much worse in 2023 and probably Beyond also one of the other mistakes that a lot of investors make is believing that once the FED succeeds in reducing inflation to two percent that we're just going to go right back to those low interest rates that we've had since the 2008 financial crisis well they're wrong Twice first of all the fed's not going to succeed in bringing inflation back down to two percent and even if they did succeed they couldn't immediately lower rates back down to the low rates that we became accustomed to because that's why we have all this inflation and if they tried to bring rates back down any progress on inflation would be lost so in order to get inflation down to two percent and keep it there the FED needs to normalize interest rates and then leave them there in fact it actually has to get restrictive and then once inflation is back down to two percent we can have a normal rate of interest but normal interest rates are above the inflation rate because nobody will normally loan money for less than the rate of inflation because you're going to lose you have to get some type of positive return for making a loan so if inflation goes back down to two percent maybe rates could be three or four percent they can't go back down to one percent or zero not unless the FED wants to unleash the inflation monster that it's supposed mostly just succeeded in corralling but of course it's not going to succeed in doing that because the FED is not going to raise rates high enough to bring inflation down to two percent nor is the Fed gonna get any cooperation from Congress because we need cuts to government spending but we're getting the opposite of that we just got this Omnibus spending Bill 1.7 trillion dollars in spending this is throwing gasoline on the inflation fire we're increasing defense spending we're increasing welfare spending in fact we're increasing defense spending on the Ukraine included in the on the spending bill was another 45 billion dollars in aid for the Ukraine bringing the total so far this year to 113 billion dollars now first of all to put that in perspective the entire military budget for Russia for the year is 65 billion so the United States alone has given the Ukraine about twice as much as roster spends total on the war and America is not the only country giving the Ukraine Aid the Ukraine is getting aid from Europe and maybe Asia so a lot of money is going into the Ukraine far more than Russia is spending to fight the war and it seems that if our real goal was peace which should be our goal instead of spending all this money to perpetuate a war we should be doing everything we could to try to organize a piece because a peaceful resolution of this crisis should be in everybody's interest but apparently there's so much money at stake a lot of people are getting rich off the war so the last thing they want is peace another way though to look at the absurdity of the amount of money that we are spending on this war the 113 billion in Aid thus far in 2022 amounts to about twenty five hundred dollars per Ukrainian I'm talking about all the little kids too so for a family of four that would equate to ten thousand dollars now ten thousand dollars is about twice the average household income in the Ukraine that's how much this Aid is so to put that in a perspective for an equivalent amount of money in the United States that would be a hundred and forty thousand dollars per family can you imagine the United States receiving aid in the amount of a hundred and forty thousand dollars per household this is an absurd amount of money and it's going to continue there's no reason to believe that we're not going to do the same thing in 2023 in fact it may even be bigger the other question of course is where's all the money coming from we don't have this money we're creating it we're printing it we're supposedly fighting a war against inflation but rather than trying to win the war against inflation the U.S is more concerned about perpetuating the war in the Ukraine and the result is both the war in the Ukraine and inflation in the U.S not only continue but they'll probably get worse but the bottom line here is that there is no interest in Congress to do anything to reduce government spending we continue to increase government spending as if we don't even have an inflation problem all these politicians are spending all this time talking about how bad the inflation problem is yet not only do they do nothing to try to solve the problem but everything they're doing is compounding the problem they want to just point to the fed and say it's your responsibility it takes two to tango the FED is not going to be able to get rid of inflation unless the government stops running massive budget deficits that the FED ultimately has to monetize all of this government spending has to be paid for you know Elon Musk ran this poll on Twitter obviously not a scientific poll but the vast majority of the three million or so people obviously some of them aren't even Americans who responded to the poll said they opposed this on the spending Bill well just about everybody would oppose this onto the spending Bill if they realized that they were going to have to pick up the tab through higher inflation because that's where the money is coming from the government is not raising taxes on anybody to cover all this spending well that doesn't mean we get all the spending for free we have to pay for it another way and we're paying for it through inflation and since inflation is the most regressive of all taxes because it falls the heaviest on those that can at least afford to pay it the Working Poor the middle class that is the new tax system we have in America because we can't get any taxes on the rich nobody is willing to even support those and even if we could raise taxes on the rich we really wouldn't generate much revenue from the rich they're already paying a lot of taxes and you run the risk of making them less productive and ultimately undermining the economy and the tax base so we have to raise taxes on the middle class because that's where the money is but nobody will raise taxes saw the middle class and since nobody will cut spending well then the only choice is inflation inflation is the only politically palatable way that government could pay for all the spending they have no way not to spend they have no way to raise taxes to cover the cost so they use inflation to cover the cost and then they blame other people for inflation whether it's Putin whether it's corporate greed whether it's the pandemic they'll never run out of excuses to blame inflation on and they will never accept responsibility for having created the inflation themselves
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