저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 백신 기대로 경기민감주(에피센터) 로테이션이 올 것이며 기술주는 '죽지 않는' 성장주로 재평가되고 S&P500은 연내 신고가를 갈아치울 가능성이 크다. 로테이션과 에피센터 주식: 골드만이 백신에 따른 기술주에서 경기민감주로의 로테이션 위험을 지적했다. 백신이나 치료제가 나오면 행동 제약이 풀려 에피센터 주식이 급등할 것으로 본다. 에피센터 주식은 신흥국 주식 수준으로 싸졌다고 평가. 미국 산업재가 신흥국 경기민감주와 같은 멀티플을 받을 이유가 없다는 주장. 기술주 밸류에이션: 대형 기술주는 대공황 중에도 성장했고 올해 이익 성장률 약 30%를 예상. PER 약 29~30배. 비교 대상으로 무성장 10년물 국채는 약 180배, 투자등급 회사채는 약 52배. 기술주는 채권 대용물로 매우 싸다는 논리. 구글의 초저금리 회사채 발행(5년물 0.45%)을 예로 들며 기술주 재평가와 높은 멀티플 정당화를 주장. 에피센터 종목 기회: 카니발, 윈나(Wynn), 델타, 디즈니, 식스플래그, 라이브네이션 등 여행·레저·공연 관련주가 치료제 발견 후 강하게 회복할 것으로 전망. 다만 S&P500 내 비중은 약 2~6%에 불과하니 전체 포트폴리오로 삼으면 안 된다는 조언. 온라인 전환과 구조 변화: 식료품 배달, 재택근무, 도시 탈출 등 소비 행태 변화가 상당 부분 지속될 것으로 봄. 재택 관련 기업과 주택 관련(Tempur-Pedic, 홈디포)에 유리. 레스토랑 등 오프라인 업종은 회복이 어렵다고 평가. 지수 전망: 시장은 대칭적이라 빠르게 떨어진 만큼 빠르게 회복한다는 프레임워크를 사용. 9월 이전 신고가 가능성을 언급. 기술주가 S&P500의 약 75%를 차지하는 성장주라 올해 역사적 고점을 쉽게 넘어설 것이고 훨씬 더 높은 수준도 가능하다고 봄. 다만 미래는 불확실하다고 단서를 달았다.
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interesting to see goldman sachs coming out and kind of of course all of this right now and all the uncertainty is tied to the health front and whether or not we get a vaccine where the case counts are going right now but goldman coming out noting that investors might be overlooking the risk of a rotation here that could be sparked by a vaccine and what that could do for the rotation out of tech stocks in the cyclical stocks of course that's been something that you've noted a few times on this show you've talked about those hard hit epicenter stocks so what's your take maybe them stealing your thunder here and talking about that rotation and how it could play out here in the back half of 2020 yes um well i mean i think it's i think goldman's bringing a really important point which is that you know the the way forward for coronavirus in the us and the world is not just you know wearing masks and trying to eradicate the are not to zero it's that there can be some binary events and you know one of the biggest ones is going to be a cure or vaccine and let's face it if we get a cure vaccine all the behavioral caution people have the fact that they think you know they're bunkered and not going to come out of their homes that's all going to change that's going to drive a violent rotation into the cyclical stocks which we call epicenter and epicenter stocks have gotten so cheap they're almost as cheap as emerging market equities and if you think about it i mean you know are us industrials deserving the same multiple as an em cyclical i mean i think that's why at the center has gotten ridiculously cheap and so that's why let's talk about those valuations too though because you talked about that last time you were on the show specifically with tech how they survived one of the worst economic downturns we've seen in our lifetimes perhaps multiple lifetimes here when we think about the damage done and they're still showing growth in terms of earnings so i mean you talked about how it would be a reset evaluation there on the tech front and just putting that into context you look at kind of pe and what's being ascribed here to bonds and and you know high yields bonds there to treasuries i mean put that into context for our viewers here when we think about why there might be more room to run on the valuations front when you when you look at it that way yes uh yeah you're you're describing our work about how i think people are misplacing their their fears about equity valuations especially for the big cap tech um number one these companies are unkillable i mean they grew in the midst of a depression um and they're forecast to grow earnings 30 and they're trading at maybe 29 30 times earnings a 10-year bond which has no growth is trading at 180 times an investment grade company their bonds are trading at 52 times tech is a bond proxy yeah then you have to buy property we're creating it over 30 times so i think tech equities as a bond proxy are super cheap i think they're going to get re-rated because they are unkillable and they're you know and they're borrowing money at ridiculously low rates so they deserve higher multiples yeah you talk about that we saw google come out with a 10 billion dollar raise at its lowest ever borrowing quad costs there the coupon rate the one billion dollar five-year tranche was point four five percent there not that different than the yield we're seeing on the five-year us treasury of 0.22 so it just kind of shows the ability for some of these tech giants to raise at incredibly low costs but when you think about people know the fang names they know what the acronym stands for but when we think about the epicenter stocks you talk about uh the opportunity there and what these hard hit names could show in the recovery you've named some retail names there cruise lines in there airline stocks had been in their casino stocks in there what names are you looking at in terms of where the opportunity might be if these are where the market will be rotating into yeah so something that we've been sort of you know thinking out loud is there's a lot of businesses that are impaired now because people don't feel safe um going to a theme park going to a concert getting on a plane getting on a cruise going to a casino these are going to be binary events because unless you can substitute it remember we have generations of people taking planes it's not like we're going to stop flying or stop you know going to restaurants or getting on a cruise so names like carnival win delta disney six flags you know these are businesses that will come back in a ferocious way once we get a cure and even something like live nation which does you know concert promotion and ticketing so i think investors can't ignore these things now there are only 26 or so of the s p so it shouldn't be their whole portfolio but at the end of the day people are overweight growth but they're going to want to own some of these if if we get a cure yeah not to mention i mean you talk about live nation one of those companies there that has been noted for having uh some pretty strong power in terms of control of the live events market uh dare i say monopolistic power i'm going to go that far but tom lee when we also talk about the shift here because some of these things have seen a noted shift to online obviously you can't go online i guess you could try and create the concert experience online but when we think about other things you've also highlighted research from mckinsey looking at how this shift to shopping online has impacted not just some of those things that we're used to maybe things you might buy on amazon but beyond that groceries being impacted by all this household supplies you noted a few different categories that might mark a shift and it might be remain to be seen here when we think about if all of those go to new players in amazon or if a home depot for example can shift some of those purchases that might be online from their store to online and still capture those dollars but what's your take on how that might also be kind of the key element of 2020 and beyond yeah uh that's right i think there's gonna be a lot of creative destruction and the creative destruction is things that consumers have changed now because of coronavirus that are going to be hard to reverse and i think we've already discovered consumers now are doing a lot more online whether it's grocery now they're doing ordering in instead of going to restaurants they're doing more cooking and i think some of the other things are like they're they're moving out of the cities i think urban dwelling is going to suffer a semi-permanent change because people are seeking a practical way to sort of be safer and and so i i think this is great for you know as you said for the work from home companies it's great for housing related stuff like tempur-pedic or home depot um but it remains to be seen you know how some of these restaurants can come back because you know if if they got a business model of in-room of in dining and they've got compliance issues now and people starting to order in and cook it's going to be tough to come back so i think there are businesses are going to be left by the wayside part of creative destruction though yeah and lastly before we let you go obviously we've seen a few analysts come out and raise higher their year-end price targets here you've been talking about this before a lot of that happened so where are you thinking we might end up now as we sit pretty much back in the green here so far here today uh yes one of the things that we've used as our framework is the idea that the market is symmetric so the faster you fall the faster recovery that's one reason we were so optimistic about a big bounce because we felt so quickly and we should be making new highs before september i think given the unkillability and the fact that you know 75 percent of the sp is growth and they're getting re-rated i think the s p easily takes out the all-time highs this year and you know it's quite possible we see something you know much much higher but i you know that being said the future is uncertain so i'm not going to say anything's guaranteed fair enough i appreciate you coming back on anyways as you can see tom lee is in his car dealing with a few different things here on the east coast after that storm but i appreciate you taking the time to chat with us and making it happen regardless of what nature throws at us uh tom lee there again always appreciate you funstrat hanks again
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