저자: BillAckman · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼은 SPAC(Pershing Square Tontine)을 통해 유니콘 기업과 결합하는 방식이 기존 IPO보다 효율적이라고 주장하며, 경제 회복은 내년 하반기부터 본격화될 것으로 봤다. SPAC 구조와 장점: 4년 이상 걸리는 전통 IPO 대비 SPAC은 짧은 기간에 비공개 기업을 상장시킬 수 있고 경영진의 방해 요소가 적다고 설명. 사실상 50억 달러 규모의 현금 상장 법인을 만든 것이라는 설명. 투자 철학: 장기적으로 살아남는 내구성 높은 기업을 선호. 단기 등락보다 독점적 지위와 예측 가능한 현금흐름 중시. 치폴레는 디지털 전환으로 올해 38% 상승. 코로나·경기 전망: 3월 조기 셧다운을 주장했으나 현재는 주별 롤링 셧다운으로 차선의 상황. 백신 또는 치료제 보급 전까지 6~9개월 어려움 예상, 내년 하반기부터 회복 시작 전망. 화이자·아스트라제네카 등 백신 후보 언급. 부동산·소매: 사무실 공간은 소멸되지 않으나 재택근무로 밀도 감소. 뉴욕 임대료 하락으로 레스토랑 개업 적기라고 언급. 기타: 기술 기업 직접 투자보다 예측 가능한 기업 선호. 사모펀드·가족기업 승계 수요를 SPAC 활용 기회로 제시. 인수 대상 후보로 에어비앤비 등이 거론됨. 포용성: 여성·소수계·장애인 재향군인 소유 증권사에 수수료 20%를 배분해 주관사 역할을 맡겼다고 설명하며 이를 업계 선례로 주장.
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let's begin though with the big debut on wall street today bill lachman pershing square taunting holdings bringing to market its latest special purpose acquisition company or spac the four billion dollar ipo the largest stack to date and offering a 200 million unit at 20 a share and we are seeing that stock trading under ticker symbol p s t h u n up roughly eight percent i want to bring in julie laroche who's been covering that story for us along with a special guest julia that's right akiko well i'm pleased to bring in bill ackman the ceo of pershing square capital management also the ceo of pershing square taunting holdings bill congrats on the big debut today oh thanks so much all right so the i see shares are trading up uh more than eight percent right now four billion dollars raised a record here a lot of talk right now about spax versus the traditional ipo why now why a spec and uh what do you make of what's going on right now as it relates to public offerings sure so the big idea of a spec is a good one which is raise a cash shell listed on an exchange and then issue securities to take a private company public it's a much more efficient process a much less risky process for the private company you know typical process for a private company four or five maybe you know could be as much as six months to go public and during that period of time you're under enormous scrutiny uh your employees are distracted um you know media is writing all kinds of articles calling your employees financial advisors are calling employees you know giving them advice and no one's focused on running the business where the alternative with us back is we quietly work with the senior most people of the company we learn about the business we do our due diligence we enter into a transaction and the first press release is you're done minimize distraction certainty you know the typical ipo process it's not until the last day that you know where the outcome is going to happen what the price is how much money you raise and the degree of difficulty goes up the bigger the ipo so our thesis here is by having a five billion dollar cash pile in a public company it's really it's our own version of a unicorn right it's a one-of-a-kind entity and so we're looking to marry a unicorn so we're we're prettying ourselves up okay so the most attractive possible uh you know partner i was gonna say you're probably getting a lot of calls and i like that you just analogized it to a unicorn speaking of unicorns you mentioned in the s1 that you know you mentioned kind of four areas that you are interested in one being mature unicorns i know your investment thesis from just covering you in the past you know you look for easy to understand simple cash flow generative businesses that are dominant and have a high barrier to entry given everything we've gone through especially as it relates to kovid walk us through your investment thesis maybe how that's been reinforced or shifted and what exactly you're looking for sure i would say it's really been reinforced you know the world is an uncertain place it was an uncertain place before we had a pandemic unfortunately it's going to be an uncertain place even after we get through this pandemic um and you know the businesses that can withstand the test of time if you're a long-term investor that's what you want to own you know there are other stocks that might go up more in the short term down in the short term and if you trade you can make more money if you're particularly good at that it's not what we do but we try to find places we can put a large amount of capital on a meaningful percentage of a business but the business has to be a super durable company we don't want a couple people in a garage to come up with a better idea and disrupt us we don't want oil prices to go up or down and you know cause the business to be worth less so our job is figuring out what is the super high quality endurance company that we can the stock market close pandemics can happen and out the other side we own a more valuable company and we tried to do that in our portfolio and we're having a very good year this year and a big part of that is we own businesses that you know are super dominant uh you know chipotle's up 38 for the year because the nature of their business model their way they've adapted their digital offering efficient delivery um you know that's uh these are the kind of companies you want to own it might be bill it's good to have you on i like that analogy that you made about uh trying to marry a unicorn there's certainly uh plenty of speculation about what your acquisition targets are likely to be names like airbnb floated around i'm curious if you flip the script here what the calculation you think has changed for some of these mature unicorns now that they're saying what's happening in the markets right now you know it used to be last year we were talking about direct listings and now we're talking about stacks what do you think has changed from their end in terms of the calculation on how to come to market sure i think it's an excellent question and you know a direct listing is i think a spac is just a better version of a direct listing um you know what we bring to the table direct listing you don't raise any capital uh you know there's no one to set a value what's interesting here is we're going to spend the next few months looking at every potential candidate we're going to pick the best one we're going to do detailed due diligence we're going to understand everything we need to understand about the business and we're going to negotiate a deal to buy what is in effect a minority interest we're going to own 15 or 20 of the company uh once the company becomes public but when we make that announcement we will announce that pershing's investing a billion and a billion and a half dollars in the company here all here's what we've learned about the business this is why we think it's a really interesting investment and all of our investors will have a choice if they don't like the deal they can sell their stock to someone who does and they ultimately have a right of redemption and that creates a very attractive way for someone to go public you know from the perspective of the company itself instead of running around trying to convince people to give you money which is the ipo process we're going to make the case why this is a really great investment we're going to speak with a billion billion half dollar investment and we're going to introduce the master team this is the management team we selected and they won't have to do the dirty process of raising money right and it's just a much more interesting way to go public we've already lined up a collection of in our view the best investors in the world and we have a group of you know sovereigns uh family offices uh canadian pension plans uh u.s growth stock managers with great reputations on our shareholder registry and you know we will use that as a marketing tool when we're talking to private businesses about here's how you come public will protect you from wall street and that whole process will eliminate the risks and uncertainties and distraction and media attention that come at a very awkward time when you're not quite public and will do a transaction with you overnight and that is a really appealing prospect uh that even a direct listing direct listing still has to go through the entire registration process with the sec i want to get your sense on where you think the broader economy is right now because when you go back to march uh you know you sort of raised a red flag back then saying uh it's time to essentially you know shut down the economy this is before we had the shutdowns in some of the states saying essentially you need to rip the band-aid off so that you know the quicker we shut things down the quicker we get this virus under control the quicker the bounce back will be when you look at the economic trajectory since have things fared much worse than you anticipated at the time or are things better so the answer is had we done a hard 30-day shutdown uh we would have had you know a better outcome on the virus and a more rapid recovery of the economy what we had was i would say something in the middle uh a state by state led uh kind of rolling shutdown and we're having kind of the the inverse today and all the problems associated with that so it's it's not ideal um but it's much better than the alternative which is we let the virus run roughshod around the country so the impact will be you know it will you know the economy is going to be middling uh until um really i would say a therapeutic that works you know a vaccine that's beginning to be deployed uh or everyone wearing a mask and we just minimize the risk of this virus spreading um so i think it's gonna be a tough um you know six months nine months um but i'm looking toward the back half of next year is the beginning of a real recovery or something getting back to something approaching normal uh with maybe q1 being a transition moment hopefully you know pfizer's vaccine or astrazeneca's or uh there are many other you know company called covax which our foundations invested in that's an interesting vaccine candidate um we're rooting for all of them and we hope more than one wins yeah bill is julie i should mention i had the kovacs chairman on last week talking about exactly that um when i look at your portfolio you have exposure to retail um a lot of consumer companies like chipotle or burger king's parent company restaurant brands starbucks and even some hotel exposure and real estate and i got to say you're doing quite well this year um but when you just think broadly we're kind of outlining the recovery what do the big cities look like maybe even from a real estate perspective what's kind of your thought there so i think real estate is a really broad category and it's almost a building by building analysis um but i think in the big cities so one i don't think it's the end of office space i think people are still going to work in offices in fact i think office density is going to go uh it's going to go down you know within a period of the last decade where more and more people are being packed into offices you know the number of people per square foot approaching seven or something like that and i think you're gonna see less density in offices you're gonna see you know some percentage of the workforce i think it's more like five or ten for most companies working you know from home or at least several days uh from home but i think office survives and you know i i do think there'll be certain office space will be out loaded you know sort of the cramped low ceiling old-fashioned office space you know probably needs to be torn down and rebuilt um you know the high ceiling more modern layouts outdoor space will be a real premium asset i think you know for offices you know uh street retail if greek retail rents in new york got to really exorbitant prices and priced out all but the national you know global chain and that led to some you know i would say you lose something in neighborhoods i think the good news actually is probably the best time in history in new york city to open a restaurant i know that sounds like a funny statement but rents are going to be lower than ever there's going to be less competition than ever um and you know it's going to be a challenging period through the winter but i think hopefully by next spring uh you know people will be i don't know about you but i am dying to eat out and enjoy all the great things that a city has to offer um so yeah we were talking about that earlier and um you know just kind of again if you look at starbucks and chipotle for example they're very tech savvy companies and i know you as not a pure play tech investor but when you're even thinking um i guess at the universe of options how important will the technology component be when you're kind of assessing where you might want to make a deal sure i think it's an insightful point i mean the bottom line is every company today is a technology company whether you're a lowe's home improvement starbucks um or you know or a pure technology company we've never really invested in what i would call a pure technology company think waymo or his left driving business you know with respect to persian square taunting holdings we want to buy a business that we can predict what it's going to look like over a long period of time and therefore we can predict what it's worth i think it's very difficult to value what a so-called pure technology company um you know we want a business that is we're calling a mature unicorn and again that's just one category so we spent a lot of time on it but i want to talk about some other categories but it's a business that has really attractive economic characteristics high growth uh predictability it may be investing to take market share at this point in time so it's not generating a lot of cash today but it's building out a great market position in a business that we understand and like and using technology is an important part of it the other possibilities are you know private equity is a very large category for us uh you know the private equity firms buy businesses with a fair amount of leverage covet has an impact on almost every private equity business we are an instantaneous five billion dollar deleveraging ipo event for a private equity controlled company and the same thing's true for a family-owned business you know there are a lot of a lot of generational wealth transfer you know i'm a signatory of the giving pledge uh giving pledged members are committed to give away half or more of their assets by the time they die your principal asset may be a family-owned unlikely family-owned business where they need perhaps the next generation is not interested in working in the business overseeing the business and where you know public offering is the way to set up the business if you will for the hereafter preserve the legacy of the family company um you'll get the benefit of uh you know public company governance um and we can offer an instantaneous solution to someone who doesn't want to go on a road show and take go you know take the next four months and find out you know if biden's ahead or trump's ahead it somehow affects their ability to get an ipo done yeah you know just really some interesting stuff you just unpacked there and how you're kind of aligned with the investors and the incentives um i know you as an activist investor and i don't just mean um with your portfolio but kind of in life and whether it's your philanthropy and the signing of the giving pledge and the things that you look to to change and i noticed this in the s-1 bill more than half of the underwriters were either women-led or minority-owned or veteran disabled veteran-owned uh firms that are underwriting this deal i think he had 10 firms more than half so makes me wonder about you know really intention here and inclusivity especially given everything we've gone through from the pandemic the economic crisis and of course the social crisis that our country is going through right now i was hoping you could elaborate more on your role as an investor to enact meaningful change sure well the good news is there's some very very talented typical people that own women-owned minority owned veteran owned firms and you know we've been aware of this base of firms we hadn't you know done an ipo in the us before and we thought you know what this is a perfect time in history to do what's right from a business perspective and what's really interesting is you know it's not uncommon for a big ipo to include a group of so-called inclusion firms in the ipo but they're typically brought in at the 11th hour you know a couple days before the deal is gonna get done they're given one percent two percent three percent of the economics uh and they don't get to do anything and they don't get stock to allocate and i said look this is silly it's not a win for the deal and it's not a win for the banks and so what we did is we brought the firms in you know luke and casper locan and uh and others and uh robertson ryan and we said look we're excited about getting you involved we're getting involved early this is not philanthropy we're going to give you 20 of the economics which is you know somewhere between 10 and 20 times what banks are typically paid but you're going to do the work you're going to be part of the team and you're going to add a ton of value and you're going to lead to a great outcome this is the largest ipo of the year it's one of the largest ipos in history and without those firms it would not merely be as successful a deal and you know it's a win for them it's a win for us and it's as a precedent you know if i'm a big institution investing in ipos and there isn't a broader more inclusive base of underwriters in the deal getting real economics uh then you know what i i'm going to challenge the issuer to say why is that the case and you start a self-fulfilling prophecy to the good if you bring firms in you allow them to create value you allocate to them as many shares as they can sell right which is what we did here and that you know you give stock to people in a deal that trades up you know whatever eight percent you know the first day and you make friends with clients you build a bigger base of clients you generate more revenues you can recruit more talent and you on a positive flywheel to make uh you know uh so-called mwbe firms uh you know a more important part of wall street so i think we started a trend here um that creates a precedent i think others should follow what i can tell you is we met a very diverse base of investors uh we got one of the largest orders uh you know through one of the firms for a great long only you know very well regarded asset manager you know we gave a very large allocation to uh one of the most famous uh names in the country you know billionaire you know family one of the wealthiest families in the country participated in the deal came through one of these firms you know much broader base and there was very little overlap interestingly um between uh the introductions that were made by the you know the big banks uh versus the smaller firms and so it was a win-win uh for everyone uh so great experience bill ackman appreciate your time today uh certainly a lot to talk through there uh but congratulations on the debut today and our thanks to julia laroche as well for bringing us that
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