저자: FredCannon · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 실적은 예상보다 좋았지만 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 불확실성을 경고했다. 출연자는 웰스파고는 구조적으로 취약해 배당 축소와 비용 절감이 예상되며, 은행 업종 전반의 마진 압박이 어렵다고 봤다. JP모건은 대출충당금을 100억 달러 이상 쌓았음에도 기록적 트레이딩 수익과 자본시장 활동 덕분에 다각화된 모델이 강점을 보였다. 자산운용·투자은행·트레이딩 수익이 크게 늘었고 금리 인하, Fed 유동성 공급, CARES법이 이를 뒷받침했다. 씨티는 자본시장 덕분에 선방 중이며 상황이 더 나빠지지 않으면 배당 유지가 가능하다고 평가했다. 향후 두 분기의 핵심 변수는 연방정부 추가 부양책(4단계)과 주·지방정부, 취약 업종 대출 상환 여부다. 골드만삭스·모건스탠리는 자본시장 중심이라 견조할 것으로 보고, 대출 중심 은행은 순이자마진·신용비용 압박으로 더 어려울 것이라 했다.
다듬은 글
jpmorgan kicked off bank earnings season this morning postings posting stronger than expected earnings results at the height of the Cova 19 pandemic joining us now discuss is fred cannon global director of research at k bwa Stifel company fred good to speak with you here I definitely want to talk about JPMorgan cuz what they did it was just a really impressive quarter from him do you want to start with Wells Fargo though we had a guest on our last last block saying that this company is a train wreck what is the next shoe to drop of Wells Fargo because clearly this can't continue the company clashes its dividend by eighty percent you look throughout the quarter it was not good in fact it was it was just really ugly well they have a lot of stuff to get behind them but I also think when we can trust that with JPMorgan you have to recognize it Wells Fargo doesn't have that Capital Markets capability to offset a lot of these other charges so they're light on capital markets they face this net interest margin pressure that's tremendous across the banking industry and they have to build these big reserves for future losses so I think it's it's a tough situation for Wells Fargo and I think it reflects a tough situation for the basics of banking now Fred Charlie Scharf CEO Wells Fargo he's known to cut cost is that the next shoe to drop here before your end that there could be a pretty sizable cost-cutting plan put in effect so I think two things one is that I do think he's going to come after the cost of the organization significantly one of the things about this pandemic is there's a realization that these large branch networks people got by without him for the last six months largely and I think there's a lot of cost to save in addition he built the reserve in a big way this quarter obviously taking that hit to the dividend but to the extent that they get some of this credit cause behind them before the credit kiss I also think it can position them going for want to get to JPMorgan now quite a different story from Wells Fargo right I mean they to setting aside billions for possible loan losses in the case of JP Morgan more than ten billion dollars but they are also benefitting from record trading revenue do you think to your mind I mean we still haven't heard from the rest of the banks but it's JP Morgan the best positioned to ride out this pandemic well that capital markets business is really benefitting them right now of course we don't know the answer that and i think jamie dimon underscored that during his press conference right is there's a lot of things to go before we know the answer that candy capital markets activity at the levels that we're seeing it continue i mean we have a great equity market right now but you know there's some question marks from your last speaker who talked about that so there's a lot of uncertainty left but yes relative to the traditional Bank peers such as Wells Fargo you do see that the JPMorgan diversified business model winning at this point in time from could you break this down first I'm just looking over this JP Morgan quarter assets under management of 15% investment banking revenue up 40% markets revenue up 77% fixed income up 99% how is this company pulling this off during a global health pandemic well I think remember you have a couple things going on you have this huge the Fed an infusion of liquidity into the market and you have the cares act behind that and the result is we're seeing a lot of activity in the markets in terms of interest rates have come down so much that there's a tremendous amount of debt capital market activity going on there's a tremendous equity markets as we know a robust despite the pandemic so these factors have been a real positive surprise for those firms such as JP Morgan with that big capital market activity well let's give it let's give a nod to JP Morgan they are executing their business as well right now what's your take on on Citigroup are they executing to their to their potential at the moment always a good question what their potential is I think the city is you know like the other firms their capital markets is good and that helped them a lot again it helped offset a higher credit cost that they face City doesn't have the underlying earnings power of JP Morgan and our view but I think they're performing reasonably well during this time period and if things don't deteriorate further we think they can maintain their dividend just like just like taking Morgan but not like Wells Fargo right one more on JP Morgan you know the they mentioned on the earnings call this morning that 30 thirty percent that commercial loans are levered to Kovan nineteen sectors how do you think that will play out the next two quarters well that's the big uncertainty because really a lot will depend on what happens with the things for program from the federal government we have to recognize that a lot of the strengths that we've seen in in the banks to date in terms of savings rates in terms of consumers paying off their loans in terms of consumers and businesses being able to get through is the result of the Cure's Act so a lot of the answer to your question would be what is in phase four what what's going to happen to state and local governments what's going to happen to these sectors that are can be hard-hit and I think there's a big question we're out there and that's why these banks are building these big reserves to be prepared and Fred any read through goldman sachs earnings out later this week any read through from what JPMorgan reported to Goldman yeah I mean you got to think that these capital markets focused companies I would say both Goldman and Morgan Stanley are set up well four strong quarters they should be you know do just fine in this it's really to the spread lending banks where you have this pressure from net interest margins and we saw that at JP Morgan and credit costs and you don't have that offsetting capital market activities where the banks that are going to face some pressures alright I'll leave it there Fred cannon global director of research at KBW is steve-o company good to see you enjoy those earnings goals ou
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