저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라 실적 발표를 앞두고 이익 전환 기대가 커 주가는 2000달러를 향해 갈 것이라는 낙관 전망이 중심인 영상. 테슬라 실적: 컨센서스는 주당 58센트 손실이나, 시장 속삭임 수치는 50센트 흑자로 흑자 전환 가능성이 높다고 봄. 흑자 전환이 S&P500 편입 조건 충족과 주가 추가 상승의 핵심이라고 주장. 중국 사업: 중국은 테슬라 스토리의 '심장과 폐'이며 중국 사업만으로 주당 최소 400달러 가치가 있다고 평가. 중국에서 첫해 15만 대 판매 가능성 언급. 반면 미국은 세액공제 축소 등으로 수요가 약화되었고 유럽과 중국이 향후 핵심이라고 설명. 실적 추정치: 올해 주당 순이익 약 4.53달러, 내년 약 12달러, 이후 약 20달러로 상향되는 추세. 시장이 테슬라를 자동차가 아닌 기술주로 보며, 2022년까지 약 100만 대 인도 시 전기차 점유율 80~90%를 선반영하고 있다고 분석. 경쟁: 닛산 신형 전기SUV, 피스커 IPO 등 경쟁 심화 언급. 그러나 슈퍼차저, 프리몬트 기가팩토리3, 머스크 브랜드 등으로 테슬라가 수년간 앞서 있다고 봄. 기술: 9월 22일 배터리데이에서 발표한 100만 마일 배터리를 핵심 경쟁우위로 제시. 가격 동등성과 주행거리 개선에 기여한다고 설명. 애플: 연말까지 시가총액 2조 달러 가능성 제시. 서비스 사업 가치 약 6,000~6,500억 달러, 아이폰12 슈퍼사이클(9월 출시, 10월 판매) 기대, 3년 반 이상 기기를 교체하지 않은 사용자 3억5천만 명 언급. 상단 시나리오 주가 525달러, 현재 400달러 부근.
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will it burst merlot joining me now discuss and dissect is dan eyes managing director of equity research at webbush dan uh always always good to see you here uh so earnings are on tap uh for tesla now i'm looking at consensus here uh they're looking for tesla that'll report a 58 per share loss let's say tesla does come out with that what does the stock do yeah i mean look obviously that would be important relative to s p 500 inclusion where they need profitability look i think whisper numbers is about for a 50 cent profit so right now you know i think the p word profitability to me looks very likely and that's going to be key going forward because that's a winch but not just s p 500 inclusion but with the back against the wall musk and freeman deliver not just on delivery on profitability and i view this as you know just another sort of step forward in the stock what i believe is going to reach 2000.
hi dan i just wanted to ask you about their business mix in terms of geographic location they've kind of been underemphasized in the u.s and over emphasizing china how big a part how necessary is that growth story there and could there be any hiccups what are the potential roadblocks yeah china's the hearts and lungs of the story here i think worth at least four hundred dollars a share of course u.s you've seen demand softened like the tax credits as well as just a very tough backdrop europe and china front and center going forward and i think china it could be 150 000 units first year out in terms of the trajectory and that's the key fundamentally you could giga3 and everything happen in there that is really the fundamental driver here to what i believe is a tesla story going forward dan i'm still hung up on earnings estimates so this year uh the street's looking for tesla about 453 uh per share for this year earnings next year are going to climb street says close to 12 and after that close to 20 per share you know i look at these estimates and to me analysts in the market are starting to think tesla will be dominant not just uh within cars but suvs i mean does is that the read here that tesla will just dominate the entire auto auto industry within three years well i think that continues to sort of be what i'll say the battleground the stock between the bulls and the bears because you'll compare to what other automakers are trading at tesla is not an automaker in terms of the way the street views it's a technology player and right now if you look what's starting to get baked into the stock it's a dominant 80 90 of the ev share going forward for what i believe could be a million deliveries by 2022.
that's what's getting baked in here and remember right now it's a teflon-like model if you're seeing everything that musk and fremont have done yeah overnight nissan came out with a pretty uh slick-looking electric suv called the uh area has 300 mile range on a full charge about 40 thousand dollars looks pretty cool yeah fisker saying this week it's going to uh going to ipo is the market discounting uh this competition finally we've been talking about competition for tesla for many years but now it's starting to finally happen why does the market care about it nothing the market cares about and you're seeing in terms of some of the valuations nickel and some others obviously fisker and that's a very interesting announcement going after the suv really going after model y that's 60 to 90 000 number but it comes down to the competitor moot supercharger fremont giga 3 as well as the musk brand the tesla brand and that's something that until proven otherwise right now the street's going to really give tesla credit for that because i continue then they're miles ahead of competitors and this is all the drum roll to what i believe is going to be a groundbreaker is the million-mile battery that they announced at battery day september 22nd that's just another further sort of competitive advantage that they continue to what i believe is front and center so just following up on that competitive advantage what could the competitors really do to catch up at this point it seems like most of them are playing catch-up you got to some smaller companies like neo uh maybe just kind of a fringe what can they do to catch up yeah i mean a lot of it is just going to be resources putting look what gm's putting in billions into battery technology you know you look at all this investment right now it is an arms race in the ev market and right now in terms of you know tesla has you know target on their back but it comes down to battery technology distribution and really being able to build these cars at a point where you compete with tesla but right now they are on the trajectory to continue to own the market and that's what's baked into the stock and that's why if they're able to do it profitably that's the one two punch that sends the stock north of 2000.
i'm going to resist myself uh dan to not ask you about the million mile battery right now because i do want to get one question on apple earnings are around the bend what do you expect from the company uh certainly that's a stock that has been rallying hard off the lows just like the rest of the fang stocks yeah i think by the time we get to year end could be 2 trillion when i look it up because by year end when the ball drops times square you know to me you could be looking at a 2 trillion dollar mark out because this is the two-phase first phase you're seeing in terms of covid holding up services business worth six to 650 billion now it's the drum roll to the iphone 12 super cycle which will get launched in september hits the shelves website in october 350 million of 950 million users worldwide have not upgraded their phone in three and a half years of apple users that's the key and that's why i think you know bull case 525 and this is a stock you know inching on 400 it continues to be one it's a re-reading story in process in apple okay danny you know i have a little time here in 30 seconds the million mile battery uh from tesla what does that mean what does that do for range i mean range right now if you look the average battery is 500 000 for 10 it's going to double it and it's key for price parity in terms of with traditional automobiles and this is something where you talk about competitive advantage in terms of everything they've been doing in the lab not just in gig out in nevada but in china this is the winch pin and i think the next step in the story all right dan ives uh dropping a lot of dremels here million mile battery from tesla this year uh apple potentially a two trillion dollar market cap that's why we have you on dan you always bring us the good stuff thanks for having me all right appreciate it hey investors zach
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