저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 실업수당 신청 130만 건은 여전히 비극적이지만 4주 전보다 개선되어 시장에는 긍정적이며, 대형 기술주 중심 상승은 구조적 재평가이고 'epicenter' 피해주는 반등 여지가 크다고 주장. [실업지표와 시장 심리] 신규 실업수당 청구 130만 명은 비극이나 4주 전보다 나아진 추세로, 12개월 후 회복 기대를 줌. [기술주 vs 피해주] 기술·헬스케어가 S&P500의 약 75%를 차지하며, 경기 충격 속에서도 현금흐름 가치가 재평가되어 기술주가 신고가를 경신했다고 설명. [Epicenter(피해) 종목 전망] 항공·여행·식당·카지노 등 피해주는 2000년 인터넷 버블 붕괴 후 인터넷주처럼 장기적으로 시장을 상회할 수 있다고 주장. 백신·치료제 등 이진적 사건이나 텍사스·플로리다·캘리포니아·애리조나 확진자 정점 통과 시 자금 유입 기대. 항공주 회복 전망은 이미 둔화 조짐. [리스크 반론] 진행자는 기술주 버블 비교의 한계와 파산 위험을 지적. 리 리 전망은 방역 실패 시 피해주가 큰 타격을 받을 수 있다는 조건부 견해. [부양책·지표] 추가 부양책(약 1조 달러 규모 기대) 통과 시 피해주 수혜. 중앙은행 완화가 주가를 지탱하며, 원유·산업금속 회복과 중국 V자 반등을 긍정적 신호로 제시. VIX는 하락 추세로 60을 돌파하지 않을 것이라 봄. [선거 변수] 접전 선거는 시장이 싫어하나 장기적으로 미국 회복은 세제와 무관하게 강할 것이라 전망.
다듬은 글
here to join us to answer that question as one strike Tom Lee joins us once again it's how I guess first just your initial reaction to the headline number another 1.3 1 million Americans filing for unemployment how does that stack up in terms of the trend and the expectation really that we still wouldn't be sitting here this far into the pandemic yeah I mean it's still a tragic number cuz I mean you know 1.6 million people having to file an employment I mean it's it's a tragedy but I think from a markets perspective it's certainly better than we were seeing four weeks ago and I do think it kind of gives the investors comfort that you know 12 months from now we could see a lot of those repair because even in the midst of this sort of restricted recovery and as you said some relapses you know jobless claims are improving yeah when we talk about recovery and repair some of these companies didn't really even need to repair when we look at the tech stocks those Fang names those have been really outperforming the last two weeks those have been the ones driving and the upside moves that we've seen today though you know it's a red day but overall that's been the strength what's your take on how the thing names have right now kind of decoupled from the overall trend that we had been highlighting before when coronavirus cases were headed in the right direction and how we saw a rebound in Airlines restaurants and casinos stocks and now another case yeah I mean I'm saying stocks went through a stress test that is greater than anything we'll see in five lifetimes you know I mean they survived the Great Depression and they actually grew their business their revenues and I think that means investors realize that the value of their cash flow is that much more valuable so I think they're rewriting and I think it's a permanent rewrite and that's why they've blown past their prior highs and that along with tech and health care you know is 75% of the market so I think the market is rereading because of that but you're right there's stuff that's still left behind let's focus in on those epicenter stock names the ones that were hardest hit because those have been the ones that you've really been pretty bullish on in terms of how far they have grow here if things do continue to go well the last few weeks in terms of coronavirus cases have not gone well so when you think about what should happen with those names are you still bullish on those and hopeful that we could see kind of a recovery once we get through the peak case count that we're seeing right now in Texas Florida California and Arizona yes yeah I'm um I would say that the epicenter stocks which are really the companies hit hardest hit by this crisis are no different than what internet looked like post bubble in o2 and you know people wanted to stay away from internet but as you know the best-performing stocks after the internet bubble crashed were internet stocks because you could buy a hundred internet stocks you could get ninety six percent of them go to zero say there's only four percent survive you still outperform the S&P or the next ten years that's what's happening with epicenter because their credits are holding in I think that when you think of binary events like vaccine cure or if Texas California Florida Arizona FCAT cases peak investors start to breathe a sigh relief and they're gonna come into that 25 percent a market that's still depressed let me push back on that point a little bit here when we think about comparing back to the tech bulb because you're talking about valuations there and then we're talking about an underlying health issue in a pandemic year that's truly impacting a lot of these companies you think about Airlines you've been highlighting kind of the exponential return that we've seen this year you had said the model was kind of showing a full return to travel by August that we're seeing that start to kind of peter out here so when we think about how this might be different from back then and how companies here are very clearly tied to the pandemic in a lot of instances I mean is it dangerous to just connect the dots completely back to the tech bubble because obviously there's still a lot of bankruptcy risks these companies can't get back to full capacity oh yeah I mean the future is uncertain so you're right I mean I don't have a crystal ball so I'm not trying to say like I know what the future is but if and if we were to freeze all progress here then epicenter industries are in huge trouble because no one's gonna get on a plane confidently go to a hotel because you know theater but if you think 12 months from now that technology in healthcare and re-engineering are gonna make things safer then the stocks that benefit from the most from this really are the epicenter stock so I think it's really thinking about looking forward and the markets having a hard time now I don't blame them but if you look forward at the center stocks are really where the big opportunities are also on that front I mean we saw this kind of the big boost a lot of the upper center stocks caught a boost after we got you know more in terms of stimulus here on the fiscal and monetary front obviously still debating and waiting for that phase four deal what could come through but a lot of people expecting another trillion in stimulus so when you look at that could that be something here that might actually give epicenter stocks is this in your mind kind of the last chance to get into a rally there or is it possibly the case of the market already is pricing in progress on that front yeah I took a question I would say that you know to me the central bank and that's accommodation is really what is keeping people in the Bran proxy stocks you know that the tech and the fame and stimulus is popular on both sides and we have a white house that actually sort of fiscally acts very democratic so I think the odds are high and absolutely it's important because there's a lot of misery for people unemployed so I think the stimulus is important and yes that along with the healthcare solution really would help the economy would return to normal and that's why the epicenter stocks would be the big beneficiary of that I also like kind of the data approach right because you can have all these things going on but your analysis has really focused in on kind of the historical precedent that was kind of when you were safe to give that all clear when we got back on a 50 percent retracement level here but the S&P is saying about 30 150 right now obviously things looking shaky recently so I mean historically is there any kind of threat in your mind that we could couldn't move back below that depending on where case counts go and how you might weigh risk reward of jumping in here yeah I mean it's a good question cuz we've climbed so much so sometimes if someone thinks the air is thin we could fall but I take a lot of comfort I think the VIX is is really on in a downtrend I don't think it really want to break back to sixty and oil has made a prodigious and amazing recovery I mean you know if you wanted to think about the signal from the commodity and industrial commodities it's really bullish and then you know if you look at China you know China US are the two most important con amis China's had a v-shaped recovery you skm eyes are turning so from an economic perspective as long as we don't see a severe healthcare outcome you know it's not the best-case scenario we're experiencing but it's not the worst case either yeah and we'll dig into more of that data later on but real quick before we let you go I want to ask one more question as this is an election year interesting to see the markets kind of trade around the Supreme Court decisions we got which we'll also dig into looking like Trump's tax returns aren't going to need to come out before the election but what's your take on maybe how that those jitters around whether or not it will be by dinner Trump might actually be making this already historically a very tough year to predict also now even a little bit harder yeah I mean I would say markets don't like closed elections I think if it was clearly a White House incumbent or a new entrant winning you know I think the market could deal with that but when when you've got something that's so contested like we are now you can see how people are trying to view that as a binary event and trying to be on the right side of it so it yeah it's tricky but again I don't think in the long term it's gonna matter I think you know the US recovery is still gonna be strong either way even under different tax regimes all right the latest there from Tom Lee the man who told us we know Riley would be coming and called the bottom function at chat hey investors Zahoo
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