저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 웨드부시 Dan Ives는 테슬라 상승 여력을 강조하며 목표가를 2,000달러로 제시했다. [목표가 근거] 중국 시장이 핵심 동력이며 중국 사업 가치만 주당 300~400달러로 추정한다. 1~2년 내 연간 생산·인도 100만 대 도달 가능성을 언급했다. [실적·현황] 코로나 및 프리몬트 공장 가동 중단에도 9만 대 인도 실적은 인상적이라고 평가했다. 중국 공장 가동 후 연간 20~30만 대 수준이 가능하다고 전망했다. [경쟁 구도] 전기차 시장 침투율은 전 세계 3~4% 수준으로 아직 초기다. 테슬라가 시장을 사실상 장악 중이며, 포드·GM·유럽 업체는 'rent'를 내는 입장이라고 평가했다. [신제품·기대 요인] 사이버트럭 예약이 약 70만 대에 근접했다고 추정했다(전환율이 관건). 9월 배터리 데이에서 100만 마일 배터리 발표가 예고되어 있다. [시기별 전망] 2020년 말 손익분기 근접, 연간 45만 대 가능, 정상화 시 65~70만 대, 2년 내 100만 대 가능성을 제시했다. [경쟁사 언급] 니콜라 트럭 등 신규 업체를 잠재적 경쟁자로 언급했으나 테슬라 우위를 강조했다. [리스크] 반독점 규제 등 빅테크 규제 리스크가 가을 청문회 이후 커질 수 있다고 봤다. 민주당 상원 장악 시 규제 강화 우려를 제기했다. [출연자 전망] 캐시 우드(ARK)의 7,000달러 목표가에 비해 자신의 2,000달러는 보수적 수준이라고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
speaking of Tesla Tesla stock has been on a tear and is consistently one of our Yahoo Finance trending tickers and the street is still pretty bullish on the electric car makers future joining us now discuss where Tesla is going and where it may not go is Wedbush analyst Dan Ives dan I know we have the delivering numbers out from Tesla this morning look pretty good but I'm more interested in your new price target your bull part bull case price target is $2,000 I think you're you look a lot of people on Wall Street this morning with that note how do you get to 2,000 yeah I mean I think if you look at these delivery numbers it speaks to what I believe is on the horizon I think you're looking at what's going to be a million delivery vehicles in the next two to three years but the big piece is China the China mark in our opinion is worth three to four hundred dollars per share and when you look at these numbers and to cue in light of a pandemic Fremont standoff and a backdrop like this a ninety thousand delivery number is a jaw-dropper in my opinion so Dan explain to me why Tesla is doing so much better than the competition during this pandemic why were they able to pull a number out like this against a backdrop of coronavirus well first off it's pent-up demand and I think the big thing is really in China China is the key because I think right now that's on a trajectory for about a hundred thousand units in the first year so that is neutralizing some of the softness we saw in the US and Europe both Tesla from an efficiency perspective and we've seen this across the US and Europe I mean you just have an up demand that's there along with the production capabilities that is now back to normal even after the Freemont standoff you know in the first few months where you know their core artery was shut down Dan eNOS here and you mentioned China and Neil came out with their delivery but compared to Tesla neo's numbers are so much smaller does Tesla not really have that much to worry about when it comes to competition in China when it comes to me oh yeah it's a great question and competition in China it's pretty years of course but I think we're starting to happen here especially when you're looking to get three in terms of everything in Shanghai I believe Tesla's opportunities you could start to look at two to three hundred thousand units per year when it starts to get the steady-state now having the factory there the artery and I think this is also the drum roll so it's going to be the million mile battery that will be announced a battery day in September so you put this together again that's why a big fundamental reason for what the stocks doing is China and I think that's why my opinion $2,000 is the new bull case with China being a big piece of that but I think you look at these numbers today a major feather in the cap for the Bulls dan when I see your two thousand dollar price target I think what's coming down the line from the left from electric cars from General Motors Ford has been talking about this month Toyota are completely irrelevant and that Tesla has this market cornered is that correct I think today right now it's Tesla's world and everyone else is paying rent on the e V market now when you look at everything we're seeing on Sammy's and look at pickup trucks as well look at me our estimates are cyber truck pre-orders right now or close to 700,000 now of course conversion is gonna be the key there but that's why you look at you look at cyber truck you look at model why you catch INA you've got some of the other opportunities today overall evie it's still three to four percent penetrated globally and what's the best play out there Tesla and that's why it's a scarcity value why the stock continues to move higher and I still think room to go what's your take on Nikola you know we had a Nikolas CEO on recently talking up their new truck it does just Elon Musk have to worry at all about about Nikola I think Nikola I think that's gonna be another potential game-changer products they're not just a badger but everything on the semi truck side and I do think that becomes a legitimate competitor especially on the pickup trucks I which is obviously badger I think you guys see our pre-orders look over the next few months obviously reservation just open up this week but I think it speaks to what Brian was asking before is that right now there's a window of opportunity here in a massive market who's going to find themselves that's obviously why Ford and GM and of course the European players Porsche BMW Mercedes you know we're all going after this opportunity right now if you look at this from from Norway to the u.s.
to China you know Tesla is continuing to sort of own this market in a competitive mode part of it is the brand and of what musk is built it's that DNA and I think that's something that continues to be pervasive and that's what we saw in this quarter again while we have you here I get my talk some tech we're about to get some big-time executives testifying in front of lawmakers Amazon Google and Apple how big a risk will these public floggings of these executives be to the stocks yeah I think it will be more but I want to use a headline you know as we sort of go into that I think the bigger worry if you get a bad in presidency and the Democratic controlled Senate that's where you start to see some much sharper teeth from a regulatory in terms of antitrust right now you see it investors are shrugging it off viewing it more as fines contained and bosina and the EU as well but but I do believe this becomes a bit more of a pronounced risk going into the fall and I think some of those hearings when we be highlight some of the you know what could be on the horizon but this continues to be a Beltway vers big tech Mme about oh hey Dan that $2,000 price target I just want to get back to Tesla that you have on Tesla what's the timeline for that have you got in the next year I mean I get these kids 1250 but if you start to see them outside which are coming on 2022 you can model three deliveries ramping you look where the evie market is if Tesla continues on this trajectory you know they'll probably close to break-even this quarter they could be a 450 thousand units this year in a more normalized backdrop you could start to be to 650 700 thousand a million units could start to come in two years and I think that's something where if that happens test some stock has a two in front of it dan you're inching closer to Cathy woods high price target over at arc of 7,000 looking oh you got to give you know her in that team all the credit because obviously you know they stuck through much criticism as how so when navigated these challenges and now I think everything that that that musk and Tesla is done is just it's one of the more transformational stories I've seen and cover intact for the for 20 years all right let's leave it there when bushes Dan I it's always good to speak with you every weekend
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