저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
Cathie Wood은 로봇·자율주행·AI·에너지저장·비트코인 등 여러 기술 S커브가 동시에 변곡점에 도달해 초지수적 성장이 가능하다고 주장한다. 비트코인은 화폐 자체를 바꾸는 장기 혁명으로, 스테이블코인은 기존 달러 송금 개선으로 구분된다. 사용자 경험과 세금 문제는 개선 중이나 변동성은 여전히 큰 장벽이며, AI 에이전트 시대에 비트코인이 결제·가치저장 수단으로 쓰일 가능성을 언급한다. 단기 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
One more thing to Lorenzo: you mentioned Bitcoin, Lorenzo, but I think Block has done something really interesting recently by adding stablecoins to their equation. And you know, almost every time we talk— or have talked before—with Amrita, the CFO of Block—and I'm open about our portfolio positions—we've asked about stablecoins, because that at least seems like another bridge to the future that we're working with here.
Bitcoin is a revolution that attempts to change the very nature of money and assets. So the latter will take much longer, and many of us have been working on this for ten years or more. I used to call it a marathon, not a sprint. But now I've learned my lesson: it's more of an ultramarathon than a sprint.
But in reality, I would paint an optimistic picture . So, I think, what happens if self-driving cars, robotics, bitcoin, artificial intelligence, and energy storage all start to develop at the same time? Katie Wood believes we may be on the cusp of a period of unprecedented technological change. According to Wood, a number of important technologies are approaching tipping points where innovation could accelerate and fundamentally change financial and economic markets.
She characterizes this as a super-exponential growth opportunity, where multiple technological revolutions complement each other and develop faster than investors expect. To receive . Yes, you aptly convey the sentiment in the stock market. The situation around these convergence points has become very unstable.
You know, it seems like last year, probably nine months ago, Elon Musk wrote in X: " I think my companies are getting even closer together than I expected." And then, of course, SpaceX acquired XAI shortly after, and now rumors are circulating that SpaceX is buying Tesla to fully integrate everything back into the chip using Terafab.
So I think the sense of chaos comes from the fact that for the first time—at least in my career—we're seeing multiple S- curves reaching their inflection points at about the same time. And I think that's a big question, especially when it comes to robotics; because S- curves feed off each other, which, as you know, leads to the possibility of superexponential growth.
So, it's not just, you know, growth like Amazon has for 25 years with a compound annual rate of about 25%. No one believed it was possible then. So, this is exponential growth. Superexponential growth is possible because these S-curves actually feed off each other. So I think a lot of the questions are about are we ready to go public?
Especially in robotics, and I think the most questions arise about humanoid robots. And this is what we struggle with during our brainstorming sessions and daily meetings. We have formed our teams so that they do not adhere to sectors, industries or sub-sectors. I mean, some firms have five consumer market analysts, five healthcare analysts.
No, we organized our research by technology. So, they are technology specialists, generalists across sectors and industries. The most important thing is that they collaborate with each other as these communities come together. You know, and we learned this well with the example of our Tesla model, where there were three large communities.
Autonomous vehicles are robots. This is the first, robotics. They will be electric. This is the second. This will be a cheaper source of energy. And they will work on the basis of AI. So, the three platforms converge at the same time. Three S-curves. And we have to get these analysts to work together on models that are anathema to traditional Wall Street, the traditional sell-side and buy-side.
And that's one of the reasons for this confusion, because these analysts, because of the way their responsibilities are organized, are not prepared to understand how the world will work. Therefore, I think a fundamental change needs to happen. So, Lorenzo, do you want to continue from here ? I was thinking about Bitcoin and AI, and in many ways they are very, very similar, right?
Both use computation and energy to eliminate the intermediary of trust , right? Bitcoin is at the monetary level, and AI is more at the knowledge and research level, right? They have basic principles that, in my opinion, unite these two communities. I think they are very similar, but at least now they are also very different, right?
The implication is that Bitcoin is all about open source , transparency, it's open. And so far we've seen that, I'm sure, you'll maybe talk about closed and open models and some of those conversations. I know a lot of people here are working on this. So I would like to hear their thoughts, but it's clear that many of the current AI models and tools that we use are not private and have closed source code.
Therefore, from this point of view, open source software is currently actively developing , which I think we will talk about later. But it reminds me that the Venn diagram between Bitcoin and AI is huge overall, even though they are still different in some ways . For us, one of the questions, at least in terms of payments, monetary assets, and the machine-to-machine economy, is whether AI agents will perceive Bitcoin as a store of value, or whether it will serve more as a payment instrument.
We humans, of course, have our own ideas and experiences of use, but this is something we have yet to figure out. I understand that the field of AI agents in blockchain is still in its early stages, but this is an extremely interesting question in the long term. This reminds me of the early days of cloud technology, when financial and healthcare institutions wanted nothing to do with public clouds and built their own data centers.
And now, of course, more and more of them understand what a public cloud is, so we're seeing a mass migration. I believe they will coexist for a very long time. In addition, it is worth adding to Lorenzo's words that Block recently took a very interesting step by introducing stablecoins into this equation.
Almost every time we talk to Amrita, CFO of Block (a portfolio company of ours, for the sake of transparency), we ask about stablecoins, as it seems like another bridge to the future we’re dealing with. The question, at least for me, remains: why don't people use Bitcoin for everyday payments? Of course, volatility is the number one reason, but your purchasing power actually increases as Bitcoin goes up, right?
So it's actually not a bad idea, but of course, when you open your wallet and see a coffee worth 0.00001 bitcoin—it's very difficult from a UX/UI perspective. And I think people use a lot of good products simply because they have a user-friendly interface. Do you understand what I mean? And if you think about it, many of the tools we use, like wallets with long strings of contracts and addresses, are very complex for us.
This is extremely difficult because we are, well, quite limited, right? Like people. It seems so. But if you give these same tools that we created— cryptography, public addresses—to AI agents, it's extremely easy for them. It's very simple, and they, you know, if they see the price in Bitcoin, USDT, or dollars, it's very easy for them to accept.
So I think things could look very different in the future. And the user interface may become completely unimportant for some of these applications. I will also say that USDT and USDC are great right now for many reasons, especially for human-initiated transactions and asset ownership. But for AI agents, if you want complete permissionlessness and something that belongs only to you, remember: issuers can freeze anything they want, right?
So I guess one of the questions they 'll seriously consider is, "Hey, can they freeze my portfolio?" And here Bitcoin has an advantage that is very difficult to replicate in the digital economy, if you know what I mean. The key difference between stablecoins and Bitcoin is that stablecoins are digital versions of existing currencies, primarily the US dollar, that provide faster and easier money transfers between networks and even countries.
Bitcoin is a completely different thing. Bitcoin aims to become an alternative monetary asset outside the current financial system, while stablecoins aim to improve the way we use money . Simply put, Bitcoin is trying to change money itself, while stablecoins are improving the channels through which funds move.
This distinction is important because it means that as they grow in popularity, these two technologies could develop in very different ways. . How I look at stablecoins compared to Bitcoin: Stablecoins are simply the evolution of fintech. This is an improvement on existing tools and methods for sending and receiving dollars globally.
Bitcoin is a revolution that seeks to change the very nature of money and assets. So the latter will take much longer, and many of us have been working on this for a decade or more. I used to call it a marathon, not a sprint. Now I've learned my lesson, and it's more of an ultramarathon than a sprint.
But in reality, I would paint an optimistic picture . I think with the rise of stablecoins, it's worth acknowledging this fact and taking it into account. You can't just, you know, brush it off, but at the same time, before stablecoins came along, Bitcoin was trying to compete with the dollar within the existing financial system.
He continues to do this. Just call it TradFi 2.0 with stablecoins. Furthermore, if you look at the obstacles to Bitcoin, there are many. One of them has historically been user experience, and I think it has improved significantly. Now I would say that the user experience has become significantly better even for ordinary people.
Even the problems Lorenzo pointed out have already been solved in many products. The second problem is taxation. In the US and many other countries, you have to pay taxes even if you buy coffee, and that's pretty absurd, isn't it? So if you don't have to pay or deal with these taxes , you 'll be inclined to use dollars.
Additionally, the protocols and development tools themselves have improved tremendously, and I think they are now at the proper level. But there still has to be good reasons for people…Oh, sorry, volatility was already mentioned. This is a big , big barrier that remains. But there still has to be a reason why people choose Bitcoin over dollars.
I think the hardest thing to convince is people who have established habits, such as buying coffee every day. But for new behaviors like AI, machine payments, peer-to-peer payments, and entirely new opportunities, people are n't using dollars yet. This...this is a completely new experience. So if it's delivered to them through Bitcoin payments, and it's much easier now to engage people and give them a Bitcoin wallet experience that can be delivered directly through these AI tools, I think that will create favorable conditions for Bitcoin to spread in the future.
Rod, do you remember one of the "bitcoin brainstorms" with Alex, who called stablecoins humanitarian for this point in time, where, yes, it's mostly emerging markets, and they absolutely can't afford to lose, 15-20% loss at any given time, as opposed to moving into a world where they've already overcome this, are participating in this technological revolution, their well-being is increasing, and that's when the move to bitcoin is likely to happen, at least in emerging markets .
Katie Wood's main point is that while both stablecoins and Bitcoin may be significant in the future, they solve quite different problems. By enabling international transfers of digital currency, stablecoins have the potential to increase the speed and efficiency of the modern financial system. Instead, Bitcoin attempts to disrupt the existing monetary system.
Additionally, she believes that some of the major challenges facing Bitcoin are gradually diminishing. Some of the technical barriers that used to deter people are disappearing. Wallets and user interfaces are getting better. And development tools are becoming easier to use. While taxation and volatility remain significant hurdles, Wood believes that bitcoin could find its best uses in areas where traditional money was never intended to work, namely in artificial intelligence, machine-to-machine payments, and new digital businesses.
The growing importance of privacy, self- storage, and trust in the AI era is another important takeaway from this conversation. People will give machines access to some of their most private information as they increasingly use AI for financial, medical, professional, and personal decisions. According to Wood, this could give people and companies a powerful incentive to seek greater control over their data, AI systems, and ultimately, digital asset.
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