저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 온체인 지표(손실 공급 비율 우위, 장기보유자 공급 사상 최고, 낮은 콘탱고)상 바닥 다지기 국면이라 주장. 2025년 10월 10일 급락과 AI 우려는 완화됐고, 양자컴퓨터 위협은 2030년대로 밀렸다고 봄. 1980~90년대와 유사한 기술혁명 국면으로 규정하며 생산성 향상이 인플레이션을 억제한다고 주장. 케빈 워시 연준 의장 지명을 긍정 평가하며 금 가격 고점과 연결. 단기 변동성 속에서도 성장이 우세하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
and more investors and analysts are thinking about supply versus demand and doing more careful analysis. Again, this is a "wall of worry." We are not worried about this AI boom. We don't think this is just hype. But even during booms, there are cycles where perhaps more companies are saying they need to be more efficient with AI, which dampens the optimism a bit now.
But we don't think this will disrupt the long-term trend . So, these three variables have settled down, and I think that's consistent with the bottoming process in the cryptosphere. Yes. So, to summarize what I'm hearing from both of you, David and Katie, regarding Bitcoin, it seems, Katie, that from your perspective, the macroeconomic environment and the headwinds that Bitcoin has faced are starting to ease.
According to Katie Wood, Bitcoin could make its biggest jump yet. She argues that Bitcoin is entering a new era of growth as institutional use continues to grow, regulatory clarity improves, and blockchain data points to growing long-term demand. Wood believes these events could set the stage for another significant rally, even despite short-term market volatility.
In this video, we discuss why Katie Wood continues to be one of Bitcoin's most bullish supporters, as well as what she believes could cause the next price spike. For more , and enjoy watching. Is Bitcoin close to hitting bottom? What do we see as the prospects for the end of the year? So yes, please continue.
So, from an on-chain perspective, we are already seeing certain defined markers that we usually correlate with historical lows. Let me give you a few examples: we see that the share of supply with losses is greater than the share of supply with profits, which indicates capitulation in the markets and, historically, is a good area to buy.
We also see a supply of long-term holders, i.e. assets held for more than 155 days. We see this supply reaching new all-time highs in the second quarter of 2026. Also in the derivatives market, especially, say, on Binance, futures contracts have very low contango, which historically is a very healthy indicator, indicating a moderate market without excessive excitement.
So, these markets look very good. Also, it seems to be, you know, Google in March and our scientific work on quantum computing advances seems to be already priced in, even in terms of sentiment and market reaction, which is a good sign at least for the near future. Hmm, this is very good. We also see, contrary to this sentiment, that the " stretch" product in our strategy was somewhat under pressure in the second quarter.
You know, it should be at par , or ideally reach $100, but it seems to have dropped to $75. So this also reflected and correlated with the price of Bitcoin. So, aside from these concerns, we are seeing a more gradual accumulation of coins on the blockchain, as opposed to any local panic. Yes. And it seems like this stretch has recovered a bit from 75 to 85.
So that's consistent with the bottoming process , David, which I think we're in right now from an on-chain analysis perspective. I'd like to step back a little and just talk about the reasons why we're here. You mentioned the fear of quantum computers, and as you say, now that the mainstream developers are really focusing on that risk, I think the market feels better about that threat and has perhaps pushed it back as an issue to the 2030s .
The other two reasons are the sudden collapse on October 10th of last year. Automatic reduction of leverage on Binance, which caused a lot of problems. I think $ 28 billion was burned , something like that . Maybe even up to 40. I'm not sure if we'll ever know the exact number, but it seems to have passed.
And another thing that has been gaining attention in the crypto industry is AI. Many people involved in the cryptosphere, including investors , have begun to shift their interest to AI, as have some mining companies. And now there is a certain stabilization in the field of AI . Chipmaker stocks are falling, and more investors and analysts are thinking about the supply-demand balance and conducting more careful analysis.
Again, this is just a wall of worry. We are not worried about this AI boom. We don't think this is hype. But even during the upswing, there are cycles when, on the margins, perhaps, more and more companies say they need to use AI more effectively, and this dampens the initial enthusiasm a bit. But we don't think this will disrupt the long-term trend .
So, these three variables are settled, and I think that's consistent with the bottoming process in cryptocurrency. Yes. So, I think, summing up what I'm hearing from David, and from you, David, and from Katie regarding Bitcoin, it seems, Katie, from your perspective, the broader macroeconomic environment and these hurdles that Bitcoin has faced are starting to ease.
And then, David, from a more , let's say, internal side, that is, from the on-chain data side of Bitcoin, we see the same thing. So it seems that Bitcoin is going through a bottoming process, rather than continuing to panic . Is this a fair summary? I would call it a year, or mostly a year of local panics, but of long-term accumulation.
And that would also be consistent with what I said in my opening remarks . This would be an extension of the bull market. Once again , according to Katie Wood, the modern world economy is strikingly similar to the economy of the 1980s and 1990s. Investors at the time were concerned about government problems, political unrest, inflation, recessions, and rising interest rates.
The stock market has experienced one of the greatest growth periods in history. Despite all these concerns, Wood argued that the explanation was simple. Technology has significantly increased productivity. Despite all the uncertainties, personal computers revolutionized the way companies work, and later the Internet revolutionized the global economy, leading to decades of prosperity.
. What is happening to the market today is increasingly reminiscent of what was happening to the market in the 80s and 90s. He overcame that famous " wall of fear." There were so many reasons for concern back then. Sound familiar? Inflation, interest rates, government shutdowns, the air traffic controllers' strike back then , the Iraq War, so many similarities, and in the '90s we had what we consider the beginning or precursor of the technological revolution that is now in full swing.
Hey, it was called the internet. So, I think what's emerging here is an environment that's very similar to the 80s and 90s , where the market was able to withstand a lot of pressure, a lot of what seemed like bearish news, because it was supported by very good government policy, tax policy, deregulation, and, actually, increasingly, productivity driven by the technological revolution.
First personal computers in the 80s and 90s , and then, uh, and then the Internet. Uh, very similar environment, very similar, uh, reactions, uh, from the market. Eh, we see a little more now than we did then. Um, some very specialized portfolios or themes show extremely good results. We did n't have such portfolios back then.
Well, essentially , NASDAQ was how investors expressed their excitement about, uh, any particular topic, uh, importantly— technology topics. Er, so it's a bit of a difference, but we're starting to see the market expanding. Importantly, uh, this year, uh, our multiomics strategy has taken off, and I really think that's a result of deregulation and also, uh, the convergence of technology, sequencing technology and artificial intelligence to drive down the cost of research, discovery and development, uh, to diagnose diseases much earlier.
Oh, and, ultimately, for treating diseases. Er, so they're in the very early stages, but we're seeing biotech and pharmaceutical companies, um, trying to fill the big gap that's opening up because of patent expirations. So, they will lose approximately $300 billion in revenue over the next five years.
Uh, and they need to fill it in, and actually, there are some really interesting ways to do that now. So we see a lot of mergers and acquisitions. Uh, so now we're seeing strategic pricing that we haven't seen in 3-4 years because the Federal Trade Commission has effectively stopped mergers and acquisitions.
Hey, that means the markets are back up and running. Er , so we're really excited about this and we think it's going to lead to an even broader, er, um, movement in the markets as more, er, more companies from other areas that are related to AI, er, and so on, join in. So, uh, that's first, and then, uh, last week, uh, I looked at, uh, another very big positive that happened, and that's, uh, the appointment of Kevin Walsh as Fed Chairman.
Uh, the day he was appointed, the price of gold peaked, and, uh, we really think he's going to act pretty much like Greenspan. I don't think we, we realized it at the time, but Greenspan looked at the price of gold as his benchmark. E inflation was low and remained very low during his term as Fed chairman.
We are also pleased that Kevin Warsh will review many aspects of the Fed's work and what signals it is guided by. Importantly, I think he rethinks the idea that government reports provide all the answers about inflation rates. I think he's paying attention to the private sector. He has n't mentioned Trueflation yet, but I believe in one of his presentations he talked about inflation rates that covered thousands, someone told me—millions of items.
I don't know if that's true. Will have to go back and check that out. But we think it will be very important, as will its focus on performance. Productivity is a powerful anti-inflationary force. We saw it in the 80s and 90s, and we believe we are seeing it again. I think I already mentioned in the market review that one of the most important indicators of inflation is unit labor costs.
Unit labor cost inflation is 0.5% year-on-year. Trueflation, the general indicator, is 1.8 or 1.9%. The baseline is approximately 1.3%. So if Kevin Warsh starts looking at these other metrics to make policy, I think we'll be in a very good position. We certainly won't see Kevin Warsh combat supply shock, as he did during and after COVID, with massive rate hikes.
Supply shocks are dealt with by increasing supply, so price signals stimulate supply growth, and that is what ultimately happened. In any case, in conclusion, we have not changed our forecast, despite the war in Iran or perhaps the incitement of war or conflict—whatever you call it. We believe that growth will prevail.
Real GDP growth will accelerate this year, and inflation, after the effects of the oil price spike and customs duties pass, will be at surprisingly low levels. I think this is one of the reasons why the market is weathering all the storms we've been facing recently. According to Katie Wood, the current state of the market is strikingly similar to the 1980s and 1990s—a time when investors suffered from constant uncertainty but ultimately witnessed one of the greatest bull markets in history.
She argues that at one time, markets had to overcome concerns about political unrest, wars, inflation, high interest rates and economic slowdown. Despite all these concerns, a significant technological revolution was underway. The development of personal computers, and later the Internet, revolutionized business, significantly increased productivity, and contributed to sustainable economic growth.
Furthermore, Wood argues that deregulation, better public policies, and a more favorable business environment can promote investment and innovation. As more and more industries begin to benefit from the AI revolution and other emerging technologies , she believes markets are expanding beyond a few tech giants.
Katie Wood remains hopeful that economic growth will overcome current challenges such as inflation concerns, geopolitical instability and market volatility. As in previous technology cycles, she believes that productivity growth will be a powerful factor in counteracting inflation. Her message is that since significant technological advances often present the best investment opportunities, investors should put aside short-term concerns and focus on the long-term effects of innovation. new posts , happy investing.
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