저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 탈중앙·희소성(2100만개) 기반의 장기 가치저장 수단이며 금과 상관관계가 낮아 자산배분에 유용하다고 주장. 스테이블코인이 신흥국에서 비트코인 역할 일부를 대체 중이나 장기적으로 비트코인 수요는 늘 것으로 봄. AI가 가장 큰 촉매이며 AI 비용은 연 85% 하락, 기업 생산성 향상으로 가격 인상 여력이 있다고 봄. 로봇·에너지저장·헬스케어·블록체인도 주요 혁신 플랫폼으로 제시.
다듬은 글
inherent in a fiat currency system controlled by people. Bitcoin is not controlled by humans , and we believe it will become an extremely important store of value in the long term. And the third revolution— technical, technological, monetary—is that it is the first of its kind new asset class. I mentioned that even compared to gold, the correlation is very low.
I believe every asset manager should pay attention to this new asset class if they want to improve risk-adjusted returns. This can be done by adding assets that are not highly correlated with other assets in the portfolio, and Bitcoin performs this role perfectly. So, will it be worth 1.5 million in 2030?
It is possible. According to Katie Wood, Bitcoin's recent actions could signal much more significant changes in the market, as the asset continues to transform due to institutional adoption, technological advancements, and growing demand. She believes that Bitcoin is becoming more than just a cryptocurrency.
According to Wood, Bitcoin has the potential to become significantly more valuable in the coming years and could play an important role in the financial industry. And the best pages of Bitcoin's history may be yet to come, if its long-term plan comes to fruition. For . Institutions want to get involved in this new technology because it helps them reduce costs and increase efficiency.
And Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, says everything will be tokenized to be traded 24/7 and used as collateral in a decentralized financial world for other activities. In the case of Bitcoin, it's three revolutions in one. This has not changed. He first introduced a new technology—a currency native to the Internet.
At the dawn of the Internet, developers had no idea that financial services and commerce would take place online. And now we finally have this exciting thing, thanks to agent-based AI. Agency payments, agent commerce. If we are going to enable machine- to-machine dialogue, commerce, and payments, we will likely need stablecoins that can be divided many more times to make this new world a reality.
These will be microtransactions. Um, stablecoins are part of the crypto ecosystem. This is the path to decentralized financial services. Very important for Bitcoin, ether, Solana, hyper liquid, etc. So, the first revolution was technology. It is transforming financial services. The second is the global monetary system.
This is the first private digital. This is important. Privacy is also important. No government oversight. Based on the rules, this is probably the most important. Mathematically limited to 21 million units . The inflation rate is about 0.9%, in about 2 years it will drop to 0.4 or 0.45% of supply. In dollar terms, the inflation rate is quite high.
Yes. Yes. Compared to this, it's true. This is true. No, the 3.7% US inflation rate tracked by Fed Chairman Warsh, the PCE deflator, is much higher than the Bitcoin supply inflation rate. If you look at the growth of the money supply in the US, it is about 5.4%. So, But Bitcoin's inflation rate in the past has been quite significant.
Obviously, the price is a record. Yes. Well, this means that the purchasing power of Bitcoin has increased. You know, since the price has increased, it means that purchasing power has also increased. This is good from a wealth creation perspective. So we consider it a store of value asset, like gold.
It is called digital gold, but its correlation with digital gold over the past seven years is 0.1. There is almost no correlation. So, both are good sources in terms of value retention. If you believe that this reduction in Bitcoin supply growth will benefit the asset over time, then we do. Many people in developed countries don't understand how important Bitcoin will be to people in emerging markets, whose purchasing power and wealth are regularly eroded by misguided fiscal and monetary policies .
Not just in developing countries at this point. Oh, well, that's true. This is true. I mean, the dollar has lost 99% of its value since the creation of the Fed in 1913. So, this is inherent in a fiat monetary system that is controlled by people . Bitcoin is not controlled by humans , and we believe that in the long term it will be an extremely important store of value.
And the third revolution, besides technology and the monetary system, is that this is the first of its kind new asset class. noted that even compared to gold, the correlation is very low. I think every asset manager should pay attention to this new asset class. If they want to improve risk-adjusted returns, they can do so by adding assets that are not highly correlated with other assets in the portfolio, and Bitcoin does a great job of fulfilling this role.
So, will it be worth 1.5 million in 2030? This is quite possible. One thing that has taken over some of its role in the short term is stablecoins. Stablecoins are now being used in emerging markets to avoid the problems experienced by their own currencies. And the reason this works is that many people in emerging markets live paycheck to paycheck.
Therefore, they cannot afford the volatility associated with Bitcoin . Stablecoins are much less volatile. So now they are taking on one of the roles we have come to expect from Bitcoin. But we believe that in the long term: if this technological revolution is as powerful as we expect, it will also increase wealth in emerging markets.
And they will look for other places to put their money so they can accumulate value, and Bitcoin, in our opinion, will become one of those important tools. In the venture fund, we invest in five main innovation platforms, which actually covers 15 different technologies that we believe will change the world.
So, AI is the obvious choice, and it is the main catalyst for all innovation today. And what names in the field of AI are you investing in? Names in AI are almost everything we invest in. So we own stakes in Anthropic and OpenAI, and we are directly in the capital, which means we own shares, which you don't find in a lot of other venture funds.
This is very difficult to access. But because of the research we do and the focused effort we put into exploring these new technologies, the founders respect our work and are excited to give our investors broader access to these new technologies. Of course, besides OpenAI and Anthropic, there's a name like Laila that no one has heard of; It aims to become, in essence , a super-intelligent platform for scientific research not only in therapies but also in materials science.
So, this is a universal scientific platform. This would be impossible to do without AI. We first run almost all the names in all our portfolios through the prism of artificial intelligence. According to Wood, Bitcoin could become even more important in developing countries, especially where local currencies are depreciating due to loose monetary or fiscal policies.
In such circumstances, people may seek various strategies to secure their money and preserve their wealth, but Wood also points to a significant problem. Bitcoin can be quite volatile. Significant price fluctuations can make life difficult for those living paycheck to paycheck, as relying on Bitcoin as a reliable source of money is difficult.
Stablecoins, which offer many of the benefits of digital assets while maintaining a more stable value, could become important in this situation. the world of . AI will be everywhere, and the companies that use these tools most aggressively and creatively will win. And you mentioned four other platforms, related, as I understand it, to technology and innovation.
Yes. So, robotics, and in the venture capital fund, one of the leading companies in humanoid robotics is Figure AI . In fact, they did something very interesting recently. They essentially hired people to clean their own homes, but outfitted them with cameras and other sensors so the robots could learn from their examples.
This simply goes to show that the big need for the robotics revolution is data. Data is lacking, but there are many creative attempts to change this. Uh, next is energy storage. Energy storage is essentially battery technology so that solar and wind power can become part of an ecosystem that supports the energy needs of AI.
The most important thing here is that this is one of the biggest deficits . Uh, and also in this area of energy, we focused on nuclear energy, especially small modular reactors and microreactors. Radiant is the name of a company that focuses on this. Uh, then we have multiomics in healthcare. We believe that healthcare is the most significant area of application for AI.
So , treating diseases, uh, and developing new drugs, as I mentioned, uh, together with Lyra. Uh, Freenome—that's another name for diagnosing diseases at a very early stage , stage one, uh, and in this case, colorectal cancer using a blood test. Uh, they're coming soon, well, right now they're testing the same thing for pancreatic cancer, which is actually......
a very insidious disease. It is insidious and usually not diagnosed until the third, mostly fourth stage. Uh, so it's definitely a huge unmet need . So, think about how a blood test can diagnose cancer because tumors release cells into the blood. So this is a huge breakthrough. Treating diseases is another area we are focused on.
As for the names of CRISPR gene editing companies , we don't have any in the private fund. We have two or more in our public funds. But patents are very valuable, and two companies in our public funds, CRISPR Therapeutics and Intellia, are very well positioned for treatments—they already treat sickle cell anemia and beta thalassemia.
These are two rare blood diseases. But the real breakthrough will be the ability to treat high cholesterol. And this, we hope, is already in development. The fifth platform is blockchain technology. A huge amount of infrastructure needs to be built as the decentralized financial world and the traditional financial world converge.
Blockdaemon is the name of one of the companies in our infrastructure portfolios. Architect is a company focused on one of the fastest growing areas of blockchain technology, called “perps ,” perpetual futures. This was invented online. We have futures that expire on public markets. These do not have an expiration date .
So there are a lot of different companies coming out that want to take advantage of what we think is a huge opportunity. Massive investments are currently being made in AI and related infrastructure. They will require trillions of dollars in investment. Yes. Why are you so confident that this sector will generate the revenue needed to break even?
I think we're all looking for evidence, and we're already getting some of it , and it's impressive. In the case of Anthropic: the company's annual revenue in December last year was $9 billion . In July, it already amounted to $65 billion. You may have heard of Claude Code and Claude Co-Work. This caused a sharp jump in Anthropic's revenue .
Not only that, there are rumors, and we believe them to be valid, that Anthropic's gross margin is 80%. Is this a sustainable figure—a gross margin of 80%? This is the gross margin specific to software. But perhaps more importantly at this early stage, including research and development costs, the company has been operationally profitable for two consecutive quarters.
No one expected this. No one expected this. So, I think what we're learning is that AI is making the world much more efficient, and creating new products and services is incredibly valuable. I mean, at the media briefing I was at earlier today, you said that technology is inherently deflationary. So how do AI and other tech companies increase their profits in a deflationary environment?
Yes, that's right, AI training costs are falling by 85% each year. They started at a high level, but now they are declining by 85 % every year. Think about it. The cost of AI development, how much does it cost OpenAI to answer one of your questions in ChatGPT? These costs are lower, and they fall by 99.99% every year.
So, these are the input costs for developers of advanced models that are falling rapidly. So this is a big, very big advantage. If you look at revenue, what happens with… do you want to say something about pricing? It started at $20 a month, right? For businesses. And business found enormous value in this.
I know that our lead futurist, Brett Winton, almost immediately moved up to $200 a month because he was able to do multiple research projects at once. And now with AI agents, I think he might have about 10 projects running. And I think he can pay…we can pay Arc $4,000 a month. That's...that's $48,000 a year.
This is less than half the salary of a research associate. The productivity payoff is enormous. We couldn't even imagine this before. AI companies will have to seriously raise prices, right, to offset the trillions of dollars of investment in physical infrastructure and the depreciation of chips that are constantly improving and need to be constantly updated?
Yeah, but I think the surprise was that they…it's not that they're raising prices. The point is that, as in Brett's case, he simply uses more services and is willing to pay for more tokens because his productivity is exploding. According to Katie Wood, five key areas— artificial intelligence, robots, energy storage, healthcare innovation, and blockchain—are driving a significant period of technological change.
Because AI has the potential to improve almost every field, including manufacturing, business, finance, scientific research, and drug development, she sees it as the biggest catalyst. According to her , companies can significantly outperform their competitors if they learn to apply AI in innovative and aggressive ways .
Wood also emphasizes the rapid changes in the AI economy. She argues that while implementing AI tools can bring significant productivity gains, the cost of training and operating these systems is rapidly falling. Companies may be willing to invest more in AI as it becomes more accessible and powerful, as it can save time, reduce costs, and allow employees to do significantly more than before.
Overall, Wood conveys the idea that this technological revolution is still in its infancy. She believes that AI and other key innovation platforms can collaborate to develop new products, new markets, and entirely new business models. She sees this shift as a long-term opportunity for investors, especially for companies that can effectively leverage these technologies and turn them into practical goods and servic.
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