저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 금과의 상관관계가 낮고 최근 음의 상관을 보여 전환점이라 주장. 10년물 금리는 5%대로 급등했으나 역사적 평균 범위 중간. 1971년 금태환 중단 이후 정책 실패로 인플레가 생겼고 현재 Fed(워시)는 시장 친화적. PCE 인플레 3.4%, 코어는 하락세로 Fed 긴축 여지가 줄 것이라 봄. AI 데이터센터 투자와 낮은 법인세로 달러 강세 가능성, 금과 유가는 하락 압력 전망. 자동차 판매와 유가는 장기 정점론.
다듬은 글
Very good. Very nice turn. Bitcoin to gold. Uh , bitcoin is rising, gold is falling. We talked about the correlation between Bitcoin and gold. Ironically, Bitcoin is called digital gold because of its characteristics as a store of value. Uh, but the correlation between them during the study we conducted goes back to 2019, when institutions started showing more interest.
The correlation between them is 0.1. No correlation. Recently, there has been a negative correlation. So we really believe that this is a tipping point for Bitcoin. Katie Wood points to a significant shift driven by digital assets, artificial intelligence, and the emergence of new financial technologies.
She believes that as these developments transform the global economy, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets could benefit significantly. However, how high can Bitcoin go? And why does Wood believe this revolution is still in its early stages? For more information about , don't forge if you enjoy this kind of content.
Also, please feel free to leave comments below with your thoughts. Thanks for watching, enjoy the video . Here you see that we are moving to the ee market ee indicators. This is quite interesting for us. So you see, uh, the 10- year Treasury yield has gone up, and I've given you the reasons why. What is very unusual is that this lower indicator, metals to gold, has not risen more than it is now.
Gold was falling, so this should put upward pressure on it. Uh, but the metals index relative to gold simply hasn't changed. And I'll tell you, we're seeing so many indicators from China that are just terrible. I think I may have mentioned last time, uh, car production in China is still hovering around 30-35 million units per year.
Uh, but their car consumption dropped from about 30 to, I think, 19 or something. And interestingly, our own auto sales fell below 16 million in the last data, which was, yes, in September. And I really think we're seeing the impact of Uber, Lyft, and accessibility on car sales. Uh, and that's why I think auto sales have peaked in the long term , just like we think oil prices have peaked in the long term .
Uh, and here's a quick, uh, S&P to oil ratio is still near its peak, even though oil has gone up to 90-100. If we are right about what will happen to oil prices, then the S&P index will rise significantly relative to oil. But the S&P is relative to gold. Again, the reason we show this is because it was a very good indicator in the 60s and 70s that the stock market was in trouble.
It started falling back then , and we went through a terrible bear market from actually 1966 to 1980, and it wasn't until 1982 that we got back to the 1966 high, if you can believe it. So, we watched that indicator fade away, and many people focused on government deficits, on government debt. Is n't that terrible?
And we are returning to an environment similar to the 70s . This is not true. This is not true. And we are happy to see it growing again. We believe it will rise to all-time highs as the S&P continues to rise along with earnings and gold may become cheaper. And here's a very nice twist: Bitcoin to gold.
Bitcoin is rising, gold is falling. We have already talked about the correlation between Bitcoin and gold. Ironically, Bitcoin is known as digital gold due to its characteristics as a store of value. But the correlation between them, according to our research, has been low since 2019, when institutions began to show greater interest .
The correlation between them is 0.1. No correlation. Recently, there has been a negative correlation. So we believe that a tipping point has come for Bitcoin. What I would like to highlight in this graph is that we have seen a sharp jump in interest rates. And, gosh, it really feels like a big leap.
During the COVID pandemic, it seems we were dropping below one. And now we're above five percent on the 10- year Treasury yield . But if you look at it in a historical context, you can see that the current rate is actually in the middle of the range when you take averages since 1790, although it is certainly higher than it has been for much of history.
Another thing I would like to point out: the anomaly in historical terms is not what is happening now, but what happened in the 70s , 80s, and 90s. And in fact, before the COVID pandemic, we saw a big jump in rates, and we attribute that to several factors. Most importantly, in 1971 we abandoned the gold standard.
We closed the golden window. And what happened before that started with the Vietnam War, and then the Great Society program. That's why it's called "guns and butter." The government financed everything , and the costs, you know, were a bit out of control at the time. All this was provided by monetary policy , which faltered after the closing of the gold window, and complete chaos began: from a monetary point of view, we got double-digit inflation, and it took us a long time to fix it.
We believe we have gone too far in the other direction. The market stopped working. The Fed was essentially spoon-feeding the economy. After 2008–2009, and then again during COVID, there was a lot of fear left. But now we think we're back to a situation where the market is working, and this Fed, I think, will be very beneficial for all of us .
So, this is PCE inflation. We are focused on this because Fed Chairman Warsh is targeting the overall PCE inflation measure. We have received updated data. When we first created this chart, the figure was 3.7%, and with the update there was a slight downward revision. We dropped to 3.4% year-on-year.
You see that core inflation is slightly lower than this figure. The problem is that Fed Chairman Warsh, in my opinion, is fixated on the overall indicator, or at least says so, and 2% is still a long way off. So we heard a lot of hawkish talk that the Fed would continue to tighten policy until this PCE inflation report came out.
It is still very high, but if we look at the private inflation rate, which we believe Fed Chairman Warsh is also targeting. Here you can see Trueflation. We've mentioned this before. You see that the overall figure has risen—it's marked in purple— to about 2.7%, and oil prices are probably a big part of that recent rise.
But look at what happens to core inflation. Core inflation continues to decline, and we don't think this will go unnoticed by Fed Chairman Warsh, because as you can see , we are returning to the average values observed before COVID . Another important component of Wood's analysis is gold. According to her , gold can be used to gauge public confidence in the value of money and central bank policies.
She cites the Volcker and Greenspan eras as examples of times when US monetary policy was considered tighter. Although they never officially stated that regulating gold prices was one of their goals, Wood suggests that policymakers may have watched gold prices as an indicator of rising inflation or increasing pressure on the monetary system.
y, . And here you can see a dollar. This is again a long-term schedule, although not as long as the previous one. Uh, but we like to pay attention to the early 80s, which you see in green on the dollar chart. Uh, back then we had great monetary policy and fiscal policy that was very business-friendly.
Lots of tax breaks, uh, and, uh, also deregulation. This is similar to the conditions we find ourselves in today . And, uh, some might, uh , argue with that, uh, but we really believe that we have a business-friendly climate right now. And we see that the AI revolution, by and large, began in the United States.
Uh , actually, uh, one of the statistics I saw on Bloomberg this month is that if you look at the financing of all the data centers in the world, uh, 90% of them, and this is, uh, based on fixed income, 90 % of them are in the United States. Uh , so I, I really think what happened to our, uh, corporate tax rates , the effective tax rates are now, uh, the lowest in the world, we think, about 8 % because of the accelerated, uh, depreciation, uh, for new manufacturing capacity, and certainly data centers, uh, fall under that.
100% depreciation, uh, in the first year of operation. Uh, that means these companies get huge tax refunds that they can redirect to further investments in the United States. And we are seeing an investment boom. Uh , in the 80s, that meant that, uh, the return on invested capital, and this is relevant today, was increasing in the US relative to the rest of the world.
And the result was a rise in the dollar. You can see how dramatically he grew then. Uh, well, we're starting from a slightly different level. In the late 1970s, the dollar was crushed by terrible fiscal and monetary policies. Uh, and so he was rising from a pretty low level and with very low expectations.
This time you can see the dollar on this basis, it's DXY against only six countries. It is closer to the upper limit of recent ranges. But we believe it will continue to grow for the same reason it did in the early 80s. Many narratives indicate that the dollar is “everything” and that American exceptionalism is over.
We disagree with this . I think the statistics I mentioned about data centers suggest otherwise. And we do believe that the pressure will increase again due to foreign direct investment and other types of capital flows to the United States due to business- oriented policies. Here's something exciting.
It's the dollar again. So the DXY that we just showed is how most people perceive the dollar. Financial markets, you know, people who value the dollar, make investment decisions about it. They are fixated on DXY. But this is a real trade-weighted dollar. It is calculated by the Fed and includes 26 different countries.
And you see that in a historical perspective, the dollar is not that far from its historical highs. You can also see the early 80s here. What happened to the dollar on this basis. But how much higher are we now than we were then. Going back to the DXY, you can see that if you believe this chart, the dollar is much weaker than it was back then.
According to the Fed's figures, this is not the case. The rise of the dollar, and as I said, we believe it will return to historical highs on this basis, is a powerful anti-inflationary force, especially because most goods are priced in dollars. Here is the price of gold. So, you could say that the dollar is approaching historic highs, and that's a good thing because goods are priced in dollars.
But if you look at gold, our monetary policy over the last, I would say , 15-20 years has been very bad. The dollar has lost a lot of purchasing power relative to gold. Now, you see highlighted in green, we're highlighting how the dollar behaved during the Volcker and Greenspan terms. And we suspect, although they didn't say it directly, that they were managing monetary policy using the price of gold as one of the main indicators .
And when he fell, it gave them more room to soften. As he grew older, they went into amplification mode more often. As you can see, the price of gold started to rise, reached its previous high under Greenspan, and then he left office. And you see that the results have been very poor since then. Interestingly, the price of gold peaked the day or the day after President Trump appointed Kevin Warsh as Fed chairman, and has been falling since then.
And we wouldn't be surprised if it continues to decline once he brings this monetary policy under some disciplined control. According to Katie Wood, business-friendly regulation, tax breaks, and significant investments in artificial intelligence could cause the US dollar to rise in the coming years.
She compares the current state of the economy to the early 1980s, when the dollar strengthened due to increased corporate investment. According to Wood, the US is attracting a lot of investment in data centers and artificial intelligence, which could increase demand for the dollar and attract more capital.
Additionally, Wood believes that a stronger currency can help reduce inflation by making dollar-denominated goods cheaper . However, she notes that over the past 20 years, the purchasing power of the dollar has declined significantly relative to gold, which she sees as evidence of overly loose monetary policy.
Finally, Wood believes that as global demand for oil falls due to the use of electric vehicles and other technologies, oil prices could fall to $30-$35 per barrel. If she is right, lower energy prices could contribute to even lower inflation. Overall, Wood believes that rising investment in the U.S., more accommodative monetary policy and technological progress could support the dollar while pushing down gold and oil price, we wish you successful investments.
Comments 0