저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
영상은 캐시 우드 관점에서 기술 혁신에 따른 디플레이션 가능성을 강조한다. 금 대비 비트코인은 바닥을 찍고 상승 재개가 예상된다고 주장. 금리(10년물)는 급등 대신 하락 가능성을 언급하며 실질 인플레이션이 낮아질 것이라 본다. 달러는 미국 재정·규제완화와 혁신 투자 수익률 우위로 강세가 예상된다. 재정적자와 국가부채(GDP 대비 100% 이상)는 성장으로 해소 가능하다고 보며, 신용시장 스트레스 지표는 안정적이라 평가한다. 전반적으로 금융 시스템은 건강하며 인플레이션이나 위기보다 고성장이 더 가능성 높다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Here's, uh, Bitcoin to gold. Gold is falling. Bitcoin was falling. It seems he is in the process of hitting rock bottom. Uh, we think it has bottomed out on that basis and, uh, will resume the, uh, very volatile but, uh, broad uptrend that you see on this chart. We see a little bit here. The gap is still large .
Uh, but, uh, metals relative to gold, yes, are starting to rise. Gold is falling. Uh, some metals are growing. It's not powerful yet, eh. Eh, but at least there's a little twist. And yes, interest rates have recently increased. Uh, this will be interesting, it's a tug of war , rapid growth against much lower than expected inflation.
Uh, what will the 10-year Treasury yield react to more ? What if Katie Wood was right and most investors don't know that Bitcoin is much closer to a significant breakout? Wood believes the overall outlook is becoming more optimistic, despite many traders being concerned about short-term price volatility and economic uncertainty.
She argues that the ideal conditions for Bitcoin's next significant growth could be created by innovation, lower inflation, and growing institutional use. Is this the chance that the market is overlooking? Let's take a closer look at her latest observations. If you are interested in bold predictions and deep financial conclusions, be sure more interesting content.
Thank you for your support and enjoy the video . Uh, now we've moved on to market indicators. So, we're still looking at this metric. I wonder if, uh , the positive correlation here will ever be restored again. We , uh, see a little bit here . The gap is still large. Uh, but, uh, metals relative to gold.
Yes, growth begins. Gold is falling. Uh, some metals are growing. It's not powerful yet, uh . Uh, but at least there's a little twist. And yes, interest rates have recently increased. Uh, this will be interesting, it's a tug of war , rapid growth against much lower than expected inflation. Uh, what will the 10-year Treasury yield react to more ?
Uh, we think there could be a collapse in Treasury yields , if we're right, then inflation, uh, will move significantly away from the headline figure of 4.2%, which is the CPI right now, to something much lower. Real inflation is already lower, and we can see it becoming negative. Government measures can move in the range of 1 to 2%.
Uh, so, uh, as you know, we've been watching the S&P for everything. Uh, it's an indicator of wealth. Uh, we think oil is a leading indicator for something else. But you can see how the wealth collapsed in the 70s- early 80s, uh, according to this metric, and, uh, it threatened to do so again recently because of the Strait of Hormuz and the Iran war, uh, but it's recovering nicely.
And on the next page, an even stronger, uh, indicator of true wealth, the S&P relative to gold, collapsed again in the 70s, uh, threatened to do it again. Uh, he punched, uh, below our range, which made us a little uncomfortable. Although crude oil, uh, didn't confirm that , or S&P to crude oil didn't confirm that.
However, we are happy to see it growing again, and we believe it still has a long way to go in this technological revolution. Uh, here's, uh , bitcoin to gold. Gold is falling. Bitcoin was falling. It seems he is in the process of hitting rock bottom. Uh, we think it has bottomed out on that basis, and, uh, will resume the, uh, very volatile but, uh, broad uptrend that you see on this chart.
Uh, the dollar today is actually at, uh , that was yesterday's number. Today it's at about 100.5 somewhere in that range. Uh, the bet is that the dollar will rise, at least Kelsey's forecast, uh, Kelsey, the markets think so. Uh , and we agree with that, and, and, for several reasons. I've been saying for some time that fiscal policy, that is, deregulation and massive tax cuts, especially for corporations, that we've seen over the last year, are starting to increase the return on invested capital in the United States compared to the same period abroad.
There's another thing that has become very obvious, and we saw it with the debut of SpaceX in the public markets, but it has created many millionaires and hundreds of millionaires. The return on invested capital is higher here, and the return on labor is higher here. The incentives for innovation in this country, like nowhere else in the world, are similar.
And I think that's becoming very apparent, and of course open AI and anthropogenic development will soon follow that, and it'll be the same story all over again . We believe we have a positive impact on the dollar, as I've mentioned on many calls, I know that's not the story that exists. And in fact, the end of the American exceptional exception, we think that open AI and SpaceX's anthropogenic development are greatly exaggerated, and these are very important examples.
So, in this graph we show the dependence of inflation on money supply growth. Money supply growth slowed after about a year and a half of negative growth , which is very unusual. As you can see from this graph , it has returned to around 5 1.5%. Everything is still at the lower end of the range you see on this chart.
You can see inflation in green. I believe the total rate is 2, which is 4.2%. This overall consumer price index (CPI) is about 2.9%. So the question is whether money leads to increased inflation. We don't think so, but we think that many economists look at these graphs and say, " Okay, let's get started." And we'll show you in the next few graphs why we disagree.
Here is one of them , and it talks about monetary policy. This is the yield curve, and usually we have a trend line from the period 0809, and you can see that the trend line is pointing downward, meaning the yield curve goes up to a certain point and then turns back down. It is starting to level out.
Uh, and what does that mean? Uh, we were a little stunned when we saw what happened, uh, during and after COVID. We expected there to be an increase that would take us back into the 200 to 300 basis point range. This did not happen. Uh, and this is the first time in four major cycles. So what did that tell us?
We started to wonder if the long end of the curve was starting to sniff out some deflationary undercurrents, uh, related to technology? And, uh, let's consider the source; It made a lot of sense to us , and I think we're getting some validation here because, uh, you can see what happened to the yield curve, uh , recently.
Uh, it's starting to level out again, uh, after reaching half the level it reached, uh, after COVID. And again we say, "Okay, what does this tell us?" Well, long-term rates are rising less than short-term rates, or when they fall, long-term rates fall more than short-term rates, and that , I think, is telling.
And we think deflation is a real possibility because of technology, and as I mentioned earlier, that's exactly what happened during the Industrial Revolution. Uh, the yield curve was inverted more than half the time, and, uh, it was inverted by an average of 100 basis points. Uh, again, we think we're in a technological revolution, and we think that, uh, the yield curve, uh, could behave very similarly to how it behaved during the industrial revolution.
Katie Wood also addresses concerns about the United States' growing national debt. To reduce the burden of the national debt, many economists predict that this will ultimately lead to higher taxes or inflation. Wood, however, disagrees. Rapid technological progress, she believes, will stimulate economic growth and ultimately make debt much more bearable.
She advises investors to consider the amount of wealth a country produces, not just the amount of debt it has. She believes the financial picture looks much better when the national debt is compared to the total value of American businesse posts on Bitcoin, macroeconomics, and digital assets before we continue.
Now let's move on to his powerful predictions. You can see, as always, the deficit relative to GDP. The green line there is where, uh, Finance Minister Bessant, uh, is looking to reduce the deficit by the end of '28 or at least by fiscal year '28. So, on September 28th, uh, we think, uh, that he and this administration will achieve a much smaller deficit because growth will be much stronger, we think , uh, than most projections, including the government's own projections.
Uh, so on the next slide I want to continue with fiscal policy here. Uh , here's the chart, the green line is the national debt relative to GDP. So it's over 100%. Uh, and this really bothers a lot of people. Uh, now you can look at the purple line, and that's debt relative to equity in the United States.
Uh , and you can see that it has a downward trend. Uh, we like to think of stocks as a reflection of wealth. So debt, uh , relative to wealth, uh, is decreasing. However, when I was traveling, this debt- to-GDP ratio got a lot of press attention, mainly because people think that interest rates and inflation will remain at these levels for a very long period of time because the debt seems unsustainable .
Er, and er, we can only save ourselves, er, from this problem by blowing it up. Uh, we completely disagree . We are not so alarmed by this figure. Uh, we think that as this government focuses on reducing this deficit, uh, this debt-to-GDP ratio will start to come down again, especially if we're right, then uh, growth, uh, will surprise significantly at the top end of expectations.
So, I would like to look at both fiscal and monetary policy at one glance to show the contrast between today, when we're practically, uh , on the other side of the COVID-19 boom, and the 60s and 70s, and you can see how different it was back then. The purple line is federal spending beyond what is possible, and you can see what the so-called " guns and oil" did back then.
The weapons, we were in the Vietnam War, so defense spending was going up, and, uh , "guns and butter," uh , the social programs that were put in place back then, they all significantly increased, uh, government spending. And you can see on the green line, even though it didn't take all of this into account, uh, over time, uh, the growth of the money supply accelerated, and, uh, actually, by the end of the 70s it was taking all of this spending into account, uh.
And it was an insoluble problem until Vulcar came along in the early 80s, late 70s, early 80s and just slammed on the brakes. And you can see that he hit the brakes hard and continued, uh, inflation concerns, uh, were resurgent. He slammed on the brakes again. So the growth of the money supply has indeed slowed down significantly.
Uh, that's part of the story. You can understand why so many people were afraid that we would return to this environment. Uh, and it was because of what happened during, uh, COVID, and also because in 2089 they were trying to get out of that mess and then had to deal with COVID. So these are, uh, very long-term in terms of their 4- year annualized rates of change.
Uh, so you can see that we're on the other side, and federal spending, although it's increased recently, uh, defense, is the main reason for that, uh, it's still , in terms of growth rates based on a 4- year moving average, it's still near the lower end of where it's been in the history of this graph.
Uh, and then two more graphs. Uh, are the credit markets warning us about something? No. Uh, everything is quiet. Even taking into account the outflow of private loans, I saw that Blue Owl again had to, um, limit its, um, its private loans, or its two private loan funds, to 5%. It seems like one of them had almost 40 %, ahem, withdrawal request .
So they don't even work with that. These are bank credit default swaps. And, essentially, it suggests that what's happening in the world of private lending is not contaminating the, um, banking system and therefore will not become systemic. And the last chart, um, this is, um, a high-yield spread . So, junk bonds relative to Treasury bonds.
And again the same message. Hmm , I think we had a little bit of a stir around the war with Iran, but it's calmed down. According to these last two graphs, there is nothing to worry about. According to Katie Wood, many investors are overly concerned about the US deficit and rising national debt. Although debt already exceeds 100% of GDP, she believes that economic growth is the real solution.
She expects the economy to grow faster than most forecasts if productivity and innovation continue to rise, ultimately leading to a lower debt- to-GDP ratio. In her opinion, this makes the current debt situation much less dangerous than many believe, especially against the backdrop of panicked forecasts of long-term inflation or financial collapse.
Furthermore, she argues that comparing national debt to a country's overall wealth, particularly the value of U.S. stocks, is more insightful. From this perspective, she believes the financial picture looks better because American businesses are still creating significant long-term value. In a growing economy driven by innovation, it views debt as a manageable, not an insurmountable, problem.
She concludes by noting that fears that foreign investors will abandon US Treasury bonds or that the dollar will lose its importance in the global economy are exaggerated. Overall international demand for U.S. debt is stable , despite several countries reducing their holdings. Furthermore, she notes that there are no signs of systemic stress as credit markets, particularly bank risk measures and high-yield bond spreads, are still stable.
Taken together, Wood sees a healthy financial system and believes that faster growth, rather than inflation or crisis, is the more likely course of action. Don't forge if you find his perspective helpful so you don't miss any updates. We would love to know what you think about the future of cryptocurrency markets, so please share your ideas in the comments section. We appreciate your time and hope to see you in the next video.
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