저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXL(필라델피아 반도체지수 3배)과 TECL(기술섹터 3배)을 비교. SOXL은 특정 섹터 집중으로 폭발적 상승과 큰 낙폭(2022년 -86.6% vs TECL -75.1%), 변동성 약 1.4~1.5배. 장기 수익은 시기별로 엇갈림. 레버리지 ETF의 변동성 끌림(복리 훼손)으로 지수 회복 후에도 ETF 가격 미회복 가능성 언급. 두 ETF 상관계수 0.85로 분산 효과 제한적이라 조언. 예측 발언은 없고 교육적 비교 중심.
다듬은 글
So, today we'll be looking at two leveraged ETFs that are attracting a lot of attention from investors: SO and TCI . Let's take a closer look at the materials you've provided, and together we'll delve into the characteristics of each and the risks associated with each investment. Yes, thank you. SXL is an ETF that applies 3x leverage to the reactionary sector, and TCL is an ETF that applies 3x leverage to the entire technology sector.
The document contains various comparative data on performance, risk, and more, and I hope that analyzing this will provide some useful information for your investment decisions . So, let's get started and look at the fundamental differences between these two . SO stands for the Philadelphia Reaction Stock Index ( SOS Index).
So, TCL tracks the Technology Select Sector Index, and that's correct. The biggest difference is the constituent stocks. SOXL, for example, seems to be concentrating its investments heavily on stocks that are right in the middle of the reactionary trend, such as NVIDIA and AMD. It's like specializing in the engine part of technology, wouldn't you say?
The engine part. I see. Yes, on the one hand, TCI includes Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia, but it will be a more diversified investment strategy across major tech companies. This one, well, covers not just the engine itself, but the entire range of products and services that use it. Ah, that's easy to understand.
It's either centralization or decentralization. I agree. Incidentally, the expense ratios vary slightly depending on the source, but TCL is roughly 1.08% and SOXL is around 0.99%, so SOXL is slightly lower. I see. So, what about the crucial aspect of performance? Looking at the data, it's quite a contrast.
For example, there was that strong market from 2010 to 2019, right? At that time, SOXL was 3492% and TCI was 1718%, which is amazing, but the increase in SO is overwhelming. Yes, I think that explosive power during upward phases is one of SO's biggest attractions. However, where there is light, there is also shadow , and during that severe bear market in 2022, SOXL fell to -86.6%, which was a greater blow than TEQl's 75.1%.
Oh, really? That's tough. yes. The wide range of its frequency response , or in other words, its high volatility, is another characteristic of the SOXL . Looking at the standard deviation, a number that indicates the volatility of price fluctuations, the data shows that SOXL is about 1.4 to 1.5 times larger than TQL .
It really embodies the contrast between high risk and high reward . However, when you look at long-term annual returns, there is data showing that TEQL outperforms SXL in some periods. For example, while the 10-year rate might be TEQL at 42.55% compared to SOXL at 38.63%, looking at the most recent year- to-date, SOXL might be higher, such as SOXL at 53.84% vs.
QL at 43.37% . That's why the impression you get changes quite a bit depending on the time period you watch it. Yeah. So, we definitely need to watch the school program together. For example, there's the risk-adjusted return Sharpe ratio, right? yes. yes. Yes, there are. Looking at that data, TQL performs better than SO in many cases.
In other words, it demonstrates efficient operational performance. I see. TEQL has generally been better at generating returns relative to the risks taken. That's one possible interpretation. The maximum drawdown for SXL is over -90%, which is larger than TQL's -78%. There are also analyses suggesting that TQL has superior recovery power from downturns.
Yes, what's concerning here is the risk of losses inherent in that 3x leveraged GTF. The point is that even if the index recovers, the price of ETFs may not easily return to its original level. Ah, that's a very important point. Leveraged ETFs are designed to rebalance daily in order to achieve a return three times the daily price movement, right?
Because of this mechanism, especially when the market is fluctuating up and down, even if the original index eventually returns to the same level, the price of the ETF can sometimes look like the opposite of compound interest. It's also called risk reduction. that's right . That one. According to the data, there are cases where the price of SOXL did not fully recover even when the SOS index recovered.
On the other hand, TCL seems to have shown a track record of recovering both its benchmark performance and its price. I guess it's the effect of dispersion. I think that difference is quite likely. In terms of resilience to declines and recovery, TEC might be considered more stable. Depreciation risk.
This is something you absolutely must keep in mind if you're dealing with leveraged products. So, taking all of this into consideration, how do you make your choice? What can be gleaned from the document is that SOL wants to profit from sharp price drops in the short term. It seems like this is for people who are extremely optimistic about the future potential of reaction-type devices and are willing to take high risks.
I agree. You'll need strong conviction in a particular sector, as well as the ability to accept significant short-term fluctuations. On the other hand, TECL might be suitable for those who are hopeful about the growth of the technology sector as a whole, but don't want the extreme volatility that SOXL offers.
I see. Of course, TCL is still high-risk with its 3x leverage, but it also has a relatively long-term perspective, and risk management is still essential. It could be an option if you want to utilize leverage. Well, there's data showing that in simulations of making a lump-sum investment over an extremely long period, like 15 years, TCL overwhelmingly outperforms SOSL.
Well, this is all in the past, but it was 15 years ago, wasn't it? That's an extreme example, but it's interesting. Incidentally, according to one source, there are simulation results showing that in a year like 2023, SOXL would have been more profitable than TCL if certain trading rules or strategies using fear and greed indices were employed .
Yes, there have been reports of that. However, that was the result of a specific strategy and a specific period, so there's absolutely no guarantee that the same will happen in the future. Of course, that's true. Short-term performance can vary greatly depending on timing and strategy. That's both the difficulty and the appeal of RebaRechi ATF.
I see. So to summarize, the SXL is specialized for recoil, offering explosive power and high risk. TCL is a highly diversified fund and, while milder than SOXL, is still high-risk, but aims for growth. Whichever option you choose, you always need to be aware of the weight of the risk associated with 3x leverage.
Yes, that's correct. And finally, there's one thing that's a little interesting, what is it? According to the data, the correlation coefficient between the price movements of SOXL and TCL, that is, how similar their movements are, is 0.85. 0.85 is quite high. That's right . Given the high correlation between these two, is including both in a portfolio truly diversifying risk , or is it simply amplifying the concentration in the technology sector?
This point might be worth considering in your overall investment portfolio . I see. That's certainly a point worth considering. Wow, this was another very insightful discussion. thank you very much . Thank you very much as well .
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