저자: Dylan · 외국인
요약 보기
미중 무역전쟁 격화로 중국 ADR 상장폐지 우려가 커졌으나, 상장폐지 루머는 가짜뉴스 가능성이 있어 조작성 주장도 제기됨. 알리바바는 최근 한 달 21% 하락했지만 사업가치는 저평가로 보고 보유 유지. 다만 집중투자는 피하고 리스크 감내 수준을 점검해야 한다고 강조. 애플은 관세 면제 소식으로 긍정적 영향 예상.
다듬은 글
Hey, welcome back to Two Super Guys Trust Stocks. I'm Dylan. And I'm Vinnie. And man oh man, has it been a rough week for those of us that own Chinese equities. We're going to talk about our favorite stock, Buckleberry Bry's favorite stock, Alibaba, and how it's now at the center of the maybe the next rung of this trade war between the US and China, which is just wild to be in that position and I don't like it.
Not fun. It's not a fun position to be in at all. No, no, no. It's definitely not. Um, this is just a screenshot from Google News. just how many articles are being written right now. This is in all in the last day basically about the US China trade war like that that is the topic of the day by far and we're like squirly in the middle of that as Alibaba shareholders which is not fun.
Yeah. And um there was a there was a a question on your last Alibaba video on basically looking at the consequences of tariffs and how it wouldn't really affect Alibaba that much because the US is such a small percentage of revenue. This is so this is the answer. This is the risk, right? Because fundamentally it won't affect Alibaba specifically that much, right?
They're going to do fine either way, but as an American investing in it, it makes it significantly more risky. Exactly. Yeah, that's my suspicion at least. Um, so, you know, rough week overall for for stocks. I mean, we're down four and a half% in the last month for the SPY. Uh, almost 5% for the triple Q's.
Um, and that's just in like said the last month here. It's a little bit worse if you look at Chinese equities overall down 11% in the last month. Uh much of that coming, you know, very short kind of end uh of this time period here as the trade war escalated. Um it's been even worse for us Alibaba shareholders down here 21% now in the last month.
Granted, we've been on like a significant upswing, right? So we're giving back a chunk of what we've already, you know, gained, but you know, it's still not great to see once we were getting up to that 140s. And I was just hoping we were going to stay out there and chill for a while, right? But yeah, we're right back down here into like the low 100 territory.
We're gonna decide buy more or or or get very scared. Yep. Yeah. I'm going to talk a little bit about at the end kind of like how I look at it, you know. Um so, you know, these are articles like I said from this week here. Kevin Olirri uh you know, did an interview and he's talking about how the US should just go ahead and get over with delist all the Chinese stocks, get them all off the exchanges.
It's it's time to to move this trade war up a notch. um you know their 500 to700 billion dollars in in market capitalization is his estimate there um amongst the Chinese equities that are currently listed in on US markets and that we should just remove them all you like just be done with this that they they don't play by the same rules we do and that you know he's competing for investment dollars against these Chinese companies which have an unfair advantage because they don't have to play by the same rules they don't have to have the same cost in terms of compliance that the US does uh US equities do so you know he's just being Kevin Olri I guess interest there's he also said that terror should be like 400%.
I will say there is one one risk that I just kind of thought of. So if if they were to escalate this further and delist it there's other things to think of that would have downstream effects you wouldn't that you wouldn't necessarily think of right now. for instance, a lot of things are made in China.
And now granted, there is a lot of theories and some evidence that they do steal IPs often. But they can essentially just say, "Well, screw it. You're going to do that. We're taking everything." Right? There's there's no there's no one to stop them because if we were to move everything out of China, it's going to one, you can't do it overnight.
It's going to take years. It's going to affect manufacturing jobs. It's not like you could just like boom everything's in India now. Doesn't work that way. So there that I I don't think it's going to happen for that reason. Like right like we just found out that they changed the the teros for essentially for Apple, right?
That just happened like an hour ago from when we're filming. So Apple's going to have a great day on Monday. Um smartphones are now exempt from these tariffs. So yeah, it's just I think it's negotiation tactics. Oh, absolutely. You know, Donny T had to carve out an exemption for Tim Apple. He couldn't let that guy just be out there on his own after insulting him in such a way.
Jesus, Tim Apple. I'll never forget that. It's pretty funny. Um, but it's nice to know that that's happening. They've been trying to divest from China for a while. Um, there was a lot of early reports about some of the first non-China made iPhones and the quality control being significantly worse. I don't know where they stand with that because Apple's Apple.
They're very secretive. They don't really disclose any of this sort of stuff. But they've been working on it. Nice. But it's it's not just cooks like Kevin Olri out here talking about delisting Chinese stocks. Uh uh Scott Basent Bessent the Treasury Secretary um under Donald Trump now in this most recent administration was on an interview on the CNBC with Maria Barto Romo and uh was asked what he thought about potentially dellisting Chinese stocks and he said it's on the table.
you know, it's certainly something we could do. Um, so it's it's very much a possibility even amongst people in positions of authority and would be a major escalation in this trade war because now we're moving just from, you know, changing the percentages on these tariffs here to actually having, you know, real life consequences for, you know, investors both on Chinese mainland and US investors in these companies.
Um so you know it could have a really significant uh kind of you know negative impact upon the the economic trust between you know investors in both countries. So we'll see that one's a little scary. Um this hearkens back to um the it was a other last delisting kind of trade period where we talked about a couple years ago under that holding companies accountable act.
Um now you know what this article is saying is this could become like a boom for um you know new IPOs in Hong Kong and that there's in total according to them 286 Chinese firms list in the US uh stock market with $1.1 trillion according to them. Now you know this is South China Morning Post owned by Alibaba.
So right it's kind of funny you're almost getting their their own opinion about this is like well this could be a good thing. I don't know if I truly buy that. There's a reason why you come to the American capital markets for for capital. Yeah. Reason why they're listed here. You literally instantly lose capital.
So I don't Yeah. Yeah. Um and then you know there's also this kind of complexity here of it not being a very straightforward um structure. Uh you know this this is older chart here but I just want to highlight remember as I shareholders in the US we're actually owning you know kind of these variable uh VIE structures.
is uh you know through a Cayman Island company and they're allowizing us to invest in a Chinese mailing uh corporation because they don't really recognize the foreign shareholders. So we're certainly in a position where we're at a legal disadvantage if you will which is very tenuous for sure. So this is that law change back in 2020 that uh PAC AOB oversight.
Do you remember us talking about that? We did a lot of videos on that. There was because that that was that was the that was back when Dellisting was like, "Oh, this might happen." And then they gave deadlines and then there was all this stuff they had to do to fulfill the obligations and I mean then it worked.
So yeah, exactly. This is this is part of Kevin Olri's kind of complaints is that they don't follow the same rules when in fact that they have been since you know this act was put in place and that um the uh PCAOB has been able to uh actually audit the auditors for companies like Alibaba and these all these 286 other US listed Chinese companies since then.
So this rumor circulated on X apparently late day Friday that they were going to be delisted. Um, and this, you know, little blurb here from the earth was talking about how it's very tactical. They put that out later in the day so you wouldn't have a chance to actually verify any information. Everyone would just shoot from the hip and the stock would just drop.
That this is very much more in line with stock manipulation than anything else. You mean like the tweet that the fake story that happened on was it like Tuesday or something? I can't remember. There was there was one day where we were tanking and then all of a sudden there's a fake news article that went out which was not real saying oh the tariffs are paused we're good and then the market goes skyrockets up and then turns out like oh no we made that up that was not real there's like three is like rooters there's like CNBC it was like what the hell so this is I mean it seems like another one this is how unethical people get great buy in prices absolutely we are at a point right now where the upto-date last second news really drives the market price more than anything related to the underlying business.
Yeah. Which sucks, right? Because people can just lie like they literally did and then the stock price will go up. You can have all these hedge funds sell and then it plums back down. Exactly. So my thoughts in this kind of situation is you really have to know your own risk tolerance. Okay. Um, this this is why we have that discussion about like how much of your your personal net worth do you want in individual, you know, holding here.
Uh, should you be trading individual stocks? There's like a million questions you could kind of pack into this. Um, personally, you know, I still think Alibaba, uh, certainly at these prices is undervalued, uh, from a strictly business standpoint. Um, and yeah, I, you know, I I I still own it and plan to continue to hold it.
Um, but am I hungry and and willing to go out there and put myself on the on the line to buy more of it and become, you know, more and more concentrated in my risk here? No. Um, because if if I get overly concentrated in the risk and then I'm starting to see like what effect I could have my overall portfolio um based upon like one random fake news article or or a tweet from a high-ranking government official or random guy like Kevin Olirri all of a sudden, you know, significantly impacts my personal net worth.
I'm not okay with that. Um, so you really have to kind of know what you're willing to tolerate in terms of day-to-day fluctuations based upon random news articles. Yeah, it sucks. It's not great. I agree. This is a kind of a a This is definitely a a weird week. No one can predict the next day right now.
It's just insane. No, I have no idea what's go Well, Apple's probably going to have a great day on Monday, but other than that, I don't know. Yeah. And then the final thing here, too, is you can certainly look into a broker and see if you'd be able to hold the Hong Kong shares. Um, mine are held in Charles Schwab and I know that I can indeed hold Hong Kong shares through Charles Schwab.
Um, so worst comes to worse, if I do get delisted, I can continue to hold them there. Um, but you know, it's not a deal, but it's certainly an option that would be available to me. Um, so it makes me a little bit more tolerant of of just riding the waves out, if you will. Yeah. So, makes sense. That's my plan.
All right, guys. Let us know what you guys think in these troubled times. Yep. Catch the next
Comments 0