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S&P500·나스닥 등 미 증시 반등을 전하며 기술적 반등에 불과하다고 봄. 연준 금리 인상 기조, 기업이익 둔화·고용 악화 우려(페이팔 감원), 델타항공 결항(조종사 부족), 유가 상승과 EU 제재 이슈를 짚음. 갭(GAP) 실적 쇼크로 약세 시각 유지, 단기 매매 주의 당부.
다듬은 글
Good morning. The US stock market closed on Thursday, May 26th. All indices are up today. The New York dollar rose for the fifth consecutive day, up 1.61%, the S&P 500 was up 1.99%, the NASDAQ was up 2.68%, and the Russell 2000 was up 2.34%. The S&P 500 had fallen 20% from its recent high last week, raising concerns about a bear market, but it has rebounded 4% this week alone.
However, there is no information suggesting a particularly large rise, so it may just be a technical rebound for now. In terms of the macroeconomic environment, the Fed is still expected to raise interest rates, so I don't think the trend will reverse anytime soon. Looking at the exchange rates, the dollar against the yen was at 127.07, and at one point it fell below the 126.60 line, but after the London market opened, the dollar strengthened again and is now at 127.40.
The market has been rising, with Bitcoin still below $30,000 at $29,427. However, JP Morgan is pushing Bitcoin at $38,617. With summer starting and driving season approaching, I think this high oil price will have a bit of an impact on household budgets. Looking at the heatmap, everything is on the rise.
Tesla Plus is at 7.4 and Amazon Plus is at 4.5. Yesterday, they announced their earnings, and while EPS sales were good, they dropped guidance for the next quarter and beyond. In the after-hours, it was sold down to -10%, but when the market actually opened, it rose sharply to +5%. Among those that rose significantly were Dollar Tree and Dollar General, which are like the dollar stores in America.
Their earnings were good, and their stock price rose sharply to 14 or 20%. Travel-related stocks are also rising, with Norwegian Airlines up 12% and airlines like Delta Air Lines Plus at 5.8 and United Cork. It's up 7%, and since it had fallen sharply by last week, I think it's rebounding for now. Looking at the yield on the 10th anniversary, it's 2.74, which is up 0.06% from the previous day, so there hasn't been much change around here.
Looking at the chart, if we look at SPY, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500, the stock price has risen today as well, but I'm concerned that the trading volume hasn't increased that much. Also, the recent high was reached on the 17th of May, and it has returned to around that level, so if it can break through that level, it should be good, but I think there might be people who will short it around here.
So I'm more inclined to think it might go down further, but the ideal scenario would be for it to break through here, fall once more, rebound from here, and rise again. Looking at the NVIDIA chart, it has risen sharply yesterday and today, and it seems to have risen steadily. んが行かい As a result, corporate profits decreased by 2.3% annually compared to the previous period.
Looking at recent earnings announcements, some have fallen short of expectations, so I thought things might be a little tough for companies. On the other hand, personal consumption has been revised to increase by 3.1%, and despite inflation causing prices to rise, ordinary consumers are still shopping, so it seems that the US economy is holding up for now.
According to economists, GDP will recover from April to June. If GDP is negative for two consecutive halves of the western period, it will signal a recession, so it seems that the US is not yet in the midst of a recession. However, even so, the labor environment is not reassuring. The unemployment rate is currently at a historically low level, but there have been news reports that companies are gradually starting to cut labor costs and reduce staff in order to cut costs.
For example, PayPal, a US company, is not that large in scale, but in some weeks it has seen dozens of transactions. PayPal has already laid off several employees, and they are planning to lay off dozens more at headquarters. This isn't just happening at PayPal; we're starting to hear similar stories from high-tech companies in Silicon Valley, which is a bit worrying.
When you ask what a recession is, one thing is that unemployment increases and crime rates worsen. Earlier I mentioned that consumer spending hasn't dropped, but if people are laid off, their main source of income will disappear, so I'm worried that personal consumption will decline in the future. And then there's the airline industry.
Delta Airlines is canceling flights. Next Monday is Memorial Day, a public holiday in the US, and the stock market will also be affected. Generally, this is when the summer holiday season begins, and travel becomes more active, but they're canceling flights from the weekend before that. The reason for this is that they still have a shortage of employees.
。 English: There is a shortage of personnel, and also, there is a general shortage of manpower because recruitment is insufficient, and also bad weather, so for these reasons, they are forced to cancel flights. You might be wondering what it means that Delta Airlines is short of people when PayPal is cutting labor costs, but the biggest shortage is pilots.
Recruiting pilots takes a very long time, and they laid off a lot of people during the pandemic, and although they have been speeding up recruitment since last year, once a pilot is away from flying, they need to be trained again, and that training period is very long, and there are not many training machines, so the number of pilots that can be requested and trained at one time is limited.
So, since last year, the aviation industry has been in a situation where it is difficult to increase the number of flights. Also, crude oil is necessary to operate airplanes, and the price of crude oil is rising, and now the EU is considering whether or not to allow Russian financial services as one of its economic sanctions.
We're on the brink, but if we do finance it, then crude oil prices will rise even further, which will be tough on ordinary consumers and will put a considerable strain on the American economy. And this is a bit of a digression, but recently I was looking up flights from Japan to New York, and you know that fuel surcharge, right?
The price of that is now 40,000 yen. A long time ago, about 20 years ago, when I went to America for the first time with a friend, it was 32,000 yen from Japan to Los Angeles. I still remember that. Back then, it was a really cheap trip. Now, crude oil is expensive, so the fuel surcharge is also high, and the dollar is very strong, so it's hard to travel abroad from Japan.
And now back to the topic, OPEC will hold a meeting on June 2nd to decide on the production target for July, but it is expected that they will continue to maintain last year's agreement to raise production by 412,000 barrels per day, so there will be no further increases in production. In the UK, for example...
They announced a 25% income tax on the profits of oil and gas producers, as well as a support package of £ 15 billion, or nearly 2 trillion yen, for ordinary households. And finally, there was the earnings announcement from apparel company Gap, which came out right after the market closed, causing the stock price to fall by 10%.
Sales have decreased, and the company has lowered its full-year profit guidance. Gap has a brand called Old Navy, which is quite popular in the US, but it seems to have dragged down the company's performance. Originally, the forecast for profits this quarter was between $ 1.85 and $2.50 per share, but the announcement today is between $ 30 and $60 per share, which is extremely low.
Last week, they made some mistakes in the earnings reports of major companies like Walmart and Target, and now they've made a mistake in the apparel sector as well, so even though personal consumption is strong in the January-March GDP, I thought the content was a bit worrying. The stock price has risen sharply today, but it's just a technical rebound, so I'm still taking a bearish view.
I think I'll keep a close eye on it. And lastly, let me do a little advertising. I wrote a report on the theme of market cycles as part of a collaboration with IG Securities. Currently, the stock market is seeing an increase in short-term trading due to the tightening of the US central bank. The report explains how to avoid being swayed by short-term fluctuations in stock prices by keeping in mind the cycle of a financial market ending and then moving into a reverse financial market and reverse earnings market.
You can read the special report if you meet some simple conditions such as opening an account and trading with IG Securities, so if you're interested in trying short-term trading, please check the description box. And lastly, a little bit of rambling. Lately, I've been hooked on one YouTube channel.
It's the painting channel of Egashira 2:50. It has over 3 million subscribers and is a really popular channel. When I only watch him on TV, he's such a fast-paced person that I wasn't that hooked, but I've become really hooked on his movie channel. And a new word I learned there is that a person who is crazy is apparently abbreviated as "aoka".
In Egachan's videos, he eats fast food and convenience store items and evaluates the taste, and he's very blunt about whether they taste bad or not, which is incredibly refreshing and funny. And I think that I, too, am a fan of Egachan's channel. That's all for today, thank you very much.
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