Bill Ackman DEMANDS the FED take action - Should they just raise Interest Rates?

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결론: 패널들은 연준이 금리를 너무 늦게 올리고 있어 더 빠르게 인상해야 한다는 데 대체로 동의하지만, 과도한 인상은 신용경색과 깊은 경기침체를 부를 수 있다고 본다. 빌 애크먼의 주장: 인플레이션과 인플레이션 기대가 통제를 벗어나고 있으므로 연준이 금리를 약 3%까지 한번에 올려 시장이 스스로 조정하게 해야 한다는 것. 패널 반응 - Justin: 연준이 뒤처져 있어 금리를 지금 올려야 한다는 데는 동의하지만, 애크먼은 당연한 말을 하는 것이라고 평가. 수요 파괴가 자연스럽게 일어나기를 연준이 기대하고 있으나 속도는 불확실하다고 봄. 너무 빠른 인상은 대출 중단과 신용경색을 부를 수 있다고 우려. 패널 반응 - Tom: 테일러 준칙(인플레이션 8%, 목표 2%)을 적용하면 금리는 약 12%가 되어야 하며 현재 연준은 크게 못 미친다고 지적. 무함마드 엘에리안이 4개월 이상 같은 주장을 해왔다고 언급. 공급측 문제는 인플레이션을 방치하면 마진 축소와 해고로 이어지므로 금리 인상이 필요하다고 봄. 패널 반응 - 추가 논의: 애크먼이 에너지·농업·주택·노동의 구조적 공급 문제를 언급했지만 이는 재무부·행정부·의회의 과제라는 지적. 금리 인상은 유동성 부족과 자본비용 상승을 낳지만 인플레이션을 방치하는 것보다 세밀하게 조절할 수 있다는 의견. 임금-물가 악순환 여부: Tom은 트럭 운전사 임금 15만 달러 수준과 최저임금 직군의 시급 인상 압력을 근거로 임금 문제가 심각하다고 보며, CPI가 실제 물가 상황을 과소 반영한다고 주장. 두 자릿수 인플레이션일 수 있다고 봄. 차트 및 마무리: 4월 CPI 둔화가 일시적 소음인지 추세 전환의 신호인지는 불확실하며 누구도 답을 모른다는 결론. 리스크: 급격한 금리 인상의 신용경색 위험, 공급측 구조 문제 미해결, 임금 인플레이션 장기화 가능성.

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01. first topic of the day bill ackman he has tweeted a lot of tweets we're not going to read all of them but his sort of main thesis in his in his first tweet says inflation's out of control inflation expectations are getting out of control and the market needs to react to this and the way for the market to to react to this in a meaningful way is for the fed to just rip off the band-aid raise interest rates get us to about three percent so that markets can self-adjust so he went on a long sort of thread about this basically saying this is what we need to do and this is obviously his opinions he's known for being a more active person in the market who has a significant voice justin let's start off with you is the thesis of what he's saying does it have marriage should we just rip off the band-aid really raise interest rates right now and then let the market regulate over the next five years yeah i mean i think he's being captain obvious here and being on a little bit on a pedestal um you know i think he maybe he missed the the good limelight after the netflix flop he had um but i mean like okay yeah the answer is yes we all know the fed is behind the curve and they need to catch up and they need to raise rates now um i think what the fed is doing is they're kind of playing uh in between the lines they're being quicker than they were but they're not being full-blown uh scare the markets so it's only 50 basis points and um i don't know i think they are hoping that demand destruction happens and saves their butt but honestly nobody knows how quickly demand destruction is going to happen so bill's saying just rip the band-aid on and then cause the demand destruction you know i i don't know like i'm not a fed chairman i think rates need to go up to fight inflation i would hope that rates don't go the the concern that bill i think is not is not giving enough credence to is that if you raise rates too far too fast too aggressively literally money dries up because no lenders when things are going up that fast lenders will just stop so then you have a credit crunch potentially and a money crunch and then you might actually send the economy into uh like a much deeper recession than it otherwise would um i think we're seeing signs that demand destruction demand is already getting destruction destructed destroyed i guess sorry that's right word uh destroyed um naturally in the face of inflation basket sizes are growing down um i think he's being a little bit aggressive here but yeah there's yeah so so tom would it be a mistake for the fed to just like raise interest rates like crazy if justin is is right that demand may get distracted uh naturally just destroy i made that mistake destroyed you you parrot what's going on with you bro distracted justin got in my head anyway should we should we destroy the demand or should we artificially destroy the demand well what bill is saying and i agree with justin he needs a layup you know when you go in there what's happening with bill ackman is very similar to the dating world you just went on a date and uh you got shut down you shot your shot you got shot down by a hot girl and now you're looking for an easier date where you can get a layup and get you know get your mojo back so it's taking a very easy topic to attack because everybody knows the fed isn't raising interest rates fast enough whether it's because the fed is fearful from circumventing their own attempt at creating a soft landing whether it's the u.s debt looming above preventing interest rates from going up whatever the case may be it's a consensus that the fed is not raising interest as fast as theoretically or academically should be raised to address an eight percent inflation if you go by the standard in the industry which is the taylor rule which says that you take the base inflation which is two percent in the u.s you take the current inflation which is eight percent the delta between them is six percent you multiply it by two which is twelve percent that's the interest rate you need so for an eight percent inflation in the us you need twelve 12 interest so they're way off that there's no i mean it's an easy layup and muhammad dalarian has been saying this for four months maybe even years so he's kind of jumping on board a very obvious train i agree with justin the thing is as far as is he right or not i think that he might be on the right side of history this time because as much as you are fearful from crashing the market whether it's the stock market or crashing demand and consumption the problem is and i mentioned this in the beginning look at target look at walmart if you don't do it inflation is going to eat away at the margins of these businesses causing layoffs causing less consumption less demand anyways so it's like saying well i'm not going to take this medicine this antibiotics because it's going to make me feel bad for a week well my guy if you're not going to take it you're going to be dead in a month so my feel might be a good idea to take the antibiotics so even though i think bill had a big booboo and speaking from a guy who had big booboos lately i mean i i think on this point he's 100 correct i i just want to respond and say i still yet again do not understand the obsession well i do understand it because it's an easy bogeyman of saying the fed they're at fault they they are the the um they are the savior of the economy but this is a weird one he even said in this tweet thread he said there's structural uh tight tightness in energy and imbalances in energy ag food housing and labor why don't we go fix that as a society i think that's a treasury department that's an executive department that's a congressional thing i think we need to we need to go fix a lot of these supply side stuff just destroying demand is just well do you artificially destroy demand or does demand mediate itself but there's a whole other side of the equation that we're not even like pushing for well this is the thing if you raise interest rates you create liquidity shortages and you essentially raise the cost of capital you can control how long it persists and you can fine-tune it if you let inflation do it you it's like riding the dragon it's also not linear it's like a pandemic it has a very kind of exponential growth to it so you cannot control inflation and it's going to wreak havoc through your economy and at some point that's the point of no return and with interest rates you can actually regulate on and off hotter colder so that's why i think he's right in that i mean do you i mean this all this is all very very dependent on if you assume we have a wage price spiral i mean tom do you do you think we have a wage price spiral well not that i feel bad for truck drivers but i mean if we if we have to pay truck drivers 150 000 a year which is kind of where we at right now and good for them for making the money i mean we we definitely have a wage problem i think in inflation as it stated in the cpi numbers is always uh lagging behind the reality the same thing with wage inflation the same thing with any sort of pricing indexing the reality is that we're probably in double digit inflation and have been for a while the reality is that wages are raging out of control look kevin deliry by the way in his take was talking about it today like they have to pay 25 bucks for minimum wage jobs or 15 just to get people to come in through the door i mean that's not a five or six percent inflation wages i mean let's be real these indices they don't really reflect how bad things are i just want to end this with a chart here just to remind everybody cpi for all urban consumers uh the question is uh it's year over year compares so the question is we did see in moderation uh deceleration in the cpi numbers from april from march and so the question is do we just keep inflecting up and is that just a little blip on the data or does this hint at us sort of decelerating on cpi i think that's a big question and i don't know if anybody has the answer yeah nobody knows you