저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2023년 6월 CPI 발표가 예상보다 낮게 나와 물가 둔화를 강조. 헤드라인 MoM 0.2%, YoY 3.0%, 코어 YoY 4.8%로 시장 예상 하회. 주거비(OER) 둔화와 항공료·자동차보험 등 일부 항목 변동이 주요 요인. 5년 손익분기 기대인플레이션 하락, 연준 추가 금리인상 가능성 축소로 해석. 발언자는 뉴스레터·강의 홍보를 병행하며 시장 상승을 기대하는 낙관적 입장을 보임.
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oh look at that we got some shout outs here in the chat The Alchemist says the newsletter is amazing love the newsletter says Chevy Jeff thank you thank you so much so uh again that that link is down below in the YouTube description or down below in the reply section of my Twitter and uh the courses on building your wealth big coupon the expiration is two weeks away email us at staff meet kevin.com if you have bundle up questions keep in mind course members can now Shadow for a pretty substantial discount uh and that's a course member only benefit you could see that at meet kevin.com okay here we go Wall Street expectations for inflation point three Wall Street expectations that's for month over month core month over month point three CPI year over year 3.1 CPI core year over year five percent Kevin's expectation is looking for a point three percent month over month and a 0.2 on the core here we go we got nothing yet come on come on it's always so intense that minute sometimes it takes like 15 seconds to actually show up here we go core year over year comes in low 4.8 I don't know why the other numbers haven't come in yet 4.8 is the core uh year over 0.2 let's go wait wait wait wait no no that's on the headline oh crap uh okay wait CPI month over month point two wait yeah there it is point two it's also 0.2 let's go okay great wow this is crazy CPI year over year comes in at point three all of it comes in low Nick T once again leaks it before once again Nick T gets it right happens to leak the CPI Data before because he gets it probably just like j-pow gets it and they're like make sure to temper the markets don't let markets rally nope we going to the Moon baby CPI month over month comes in at point two CPI core comes in at 0.2 uh CPI year over year excuse me comes in at 3.0 and a CPI core year over year coming in at 4.8 every single one of those numbers coming in low uh this is absolutely fantastic let's go ahead and get the actual report uh while I do that let's listen here for just a moment well and up to two tenths on the core is the lowest level going all the way back to to February February of 21 when it was only up 110.
and if we look at year over year up three percent four percent in the rear view mirror about four percent in the rear view mirror was the lowest level since March of 21. so when you see three percent you have to go all the way back to March of 21 again because that's where the comp drops from down to 2.6 is what we're comping to and then the rear view mirror four percent and here's another one if you look at X food and energy last month was up 5.3 that was the lowest level since nove of 2021.
65 to 4 eight this is great let's get into the actual report this is phenomenal uh congratulations this is great news everyone knock on wood this continues but it's great news okay let's get into the actual report here we go index for shelter was the largest contributor to the increases okay listen you probably haven't heard this yet I'm gonna give you a bottom line the Wall Street Journal ran a fantastic piece bottom line they said if we didn't use the dumb stupid owner's equivalent rents for our shelter inflation our core inflation would be somewhere around 30 percent lower than our core inflation is right now in other words we're stupid for using the data the way we do versus the way Europe does if we measured our inflation the way Europe does inflation would be over already this is phenomenal but anyway this totally aligns with the Nike Swoosh recovery here shelter inflation was the largest contributor uh to all items increase accounting for over 70 percent of the increase 70 percent of this trash CPA AI it's just from the housing and we know that's already rolled over for rent with the index for motor vehicle insurance that was a red flag coming up dude Nick T Nick t with the leaks man uh JP Morgan called that too though with uh Motor Vehicle Insurance the food index also increased 0.1 percent that's nominal the index for food at home was unchanged that's flat food away from home Rose 0.4 percent not a surprise that you're getting that in the summer the energy index actually Rose 0.6 as oil has actually been trending up and uh wow you're still getting this total Miss on CPI this is fantastic let's get into some of the actual categories here I want to get the uh the individual categories here in full so okay let's get this uh okay here we go we're gonna get the full tables and we're gonna go through specifically which categories are burning here uh so pulling this up right now one second while that PDF loads remember two weeks away from coupon expiration and get that newsletter that we're doing now totally for free link down below and course members shadowing discounts available at meet kevin.com now if you're a course member if you're a multi-course owner the discount actually goes up even more so what do we have here this is the CPI breakdown I like to go to uh the back okay here we go Motor Vehicle Insurance the right side is the month over month number we're looking for May to June seasonally adjusted oh wow look at that plummet in airline fares this is phenomenal a crash in airline fares let's go I hate Airlines 8.1 let's go uh that is an 8.1 percent to the downside Motor Vehicle Insurance still hot hot hot 1.7 an annualized figure times 12 is 20.4 annual inflation here at motor vehicle insurance that is an ouchy wow Chi motor vehicle maintenance and repair at 1.3 percent this is a chicken or egg problem really well it should be motor vehicle repairs costing more lead to more expensive Insurance wow look at that transportation services thank goodness back to point one percent this was a red flag in the last CPI report when we got 0.8 I was a little nervous I'm like wait how but what happen here is Airlines sandbagged the motor vehicle insurance increase even though Airlines have a much lower weight than Motor Vehicle Insurance that's great Hospital services at 0.4 still a little hot Physician Services 0.7 still a little hot owners equivalent rent still coming in at 0.4 but look at what's happening it's coming down folks it's coming down 0.5 0.5 to 0.4 previously this was 0.7.7 so we're finally coming down in some of these numbers rent of primary residents still sitting at 0.5 also High therefore the shelter index look at that weight on shelter folks shelter 34 weight here this is crazy you've got apparel at point three percent actually surprised that's at 3.6 percent annualized used cars coming down yes look at that this is we the the leading wholesale indicators were that used car prices were coming in to plummet and they finally are showing up in CPI let's go uh this is great oil just broke 80 bucks by the way for the first time in many months but it's probably because this is fantastic for the stock market I mean this should be fantastic I I mean I don't know I would let's take a look uh in just a moment electricity at point nine percent energy at point six percent didn't seem to matter though as as we really got an explosion uh here in terms of good numbers I'm really happy about this this is fantastic I'm telling you Nick knew it uh you know j-pow can get these reports ahead of time that shouldn't come as much of a surprise to you but I wouldn't be surprised if you got a little text to Doodle from hey man hey man don't let the market rally if it's just one good report because what a weird report what a weird tweet Nick tweet Nick T is like hey yo you know if we happen to get a good CPI report um you know remember one CPI report doesn't make a trend come on man there is there is no better indicator than that but uh as you can see here this is phenomenal NASDAQ and the pre-market is up one percent Tesla up three percent in the prey market and phase up 1.5 Nvidia up 144 Intel's up one percent ubiquity up almost two percent this is an undervalued play If you're looking for a value play do some fundamental analysis on ubiquity a lot of Insider control but that's because this company prints money and it's selling for less than a one peg it trade desk has been on an absolute tear 82 bucks over here Bitcoin looks like it's trying to move on this as well almost at 31k and Bray airs up another two percent Apple's even up at 0.64 snowflake uh it's up a little uh Neo two five let's see if we've got any Dow Jones is Almost up a percent the Dow's like never up almost this is remarkable you've got Domino's Pizza up 12 sun power up nine percent here open door is almost at five dollars I called this with course members I told him I go this is a buck 30 stock this thing's gonna Skyrocket even though I hate the company I thought it was going to go to two or three dollars I didn't think it would go all the way to five dollars it's almost at five dollars I'm like blown away like I wish I put a lot more money in that oh well you know that's the thing about hindsight uh but but the leading indicators the leading fundamental analysis was on point uh anyway zoom is actually uh down four point seven percent here in um pre-market Redfin down 2-4 but these uh these companies were also up yesterday uh actually was it yeah both of them were Redfin was up 23 just yesterday and here's your small cap Revival coming back remember Redfin bottomed at like 10 bucks this I know actually much lower this cycle but during coven uh now you're sitting back at 15 bucks and then it just ran uh anywho uh volumes for real estate agents still very low though so I'm not particularly enthused about uh earnings for some some of the real estate companies just because volumes are expected to be so low but anyway phenomenal CPI report let's get into the detail detail so this goes even another layer deep in terms of what we could glean from this Rapport uh tax preparation Services 1.8 percent it's a little expensive financial services are up there uh 1.6 this right column by the way is our May to June and then the prior three columns are all just the prior seasonally adjusted numbers here so tax prep Services coming in a little pricey here you've got apparel and dry cleaning at 1.3 that's high uh however if you bundle it all together once you include laundry and the other miscellaneous personal services only at point one you've got personal services at point four driven by haircuts here actually that's the only one haircuts and personal care point four little High telephone service is down 1.2 percent residential phone services who still uses that point two percent postage we did get postage stamps going up again you know I grew up as a you know I was born when postage was like 29 cents and uh you know stamps were like 30 something cents throughout my childhood now I think it's like 65 cents or something it's crazy anywho education is actually down point three percent admissions to sporting events up 5.5 yikes that's a that's a big number over here CBOE volatility index hits a one week low down to 1406.
so much for that cathartic blowout on the vix that everybody was waiting for to step into the market just hasn't happened yet then you've got public transportation wow 6.8 decline right there with that 8.1 percent airfare decline fantastic okay motor vehicle repair unfortunately that's where we saw still some heat uh but it's not in body work it appears to be in maintenance and servicing as well as repair but not body work that's only at 0.2 percent leased cars and trucks still up but car and truck rentals uh down 1.4 percent phenomenal easier to finally three months in a row here of declines in car rentals health insurance decline decline decline three months in a row of declines here Hospital Services point four percent there's that darn household owner's equivalent rent domestic Services that's hot uh at one point four percent here but also very very small weight on domestic services uh rent of primary again this is where you're getting some of the ridiculous numbers wow look at that we actually got a negative in lodging away from home holy smokes lodging away from home specifically hotels and motels down 2.3 percent now I thought we were going to get a blowout here because of Summer travel but what would offset it would be seasonal adjustments these are the seasonally adjusted numbers keep that in mind you've got other Goods uh 1.1 percent I mean this is nothing but you do want to be careful that you potentially get a reanimation of of goods inflation right I don't really think so but a lot of people worry about that wine wine at home down point six percent Lauren will be happy alcoholic beverages away from home point five percent to the upside okay what else do we have here alcoholic beverages at home point two to the downside smartphones still getting sandbagged 1.5 percent to the downside education's down negative point one uh these these are just great great numbers here this is a phenomenal CPI report remember like a year ago and I'm like I can't wait in a year from now hopefully we're looking at a CPI report that's mostly negative like negative negative negative negative it's here it's kind of crazy newspapers up point three percent who reads newspapers well I do anyway what else do we have here sports equipment down point three percent Sporting Goods point three percent oh wow really look at this segment that's starting to roll over I've been waiting for this segment to roll over absolutely waiting for it because you look at like the Petco and and some of these other pet suppliers they've actually still been seeing strengthened uh strengthening uh uh pet inflation and it's been a concern but take a look at this negative 0.5 for pet and pet products finally finally finally finally new cars new vehicles new vehicles flat on new vehicles new cars uh negative point two percent new trucks flat used cars negative point five fantastic uh infant and toddler apparel 0.7 oh of course as soon as I'm expecting twins uh infinite toddler apparel goes up great girls apparel those down and these are twin girls so maybe they'll grow into that downside of uh of lower pricing but uh infants more expensive great okay men's apparel 0.4 over here and what else here women's outerwear and dresses both negative housekeeping supplies 0.1 tools and Hardware zero dishes flatware 1.5 appliances yeah let's look at those durables here appliances negative again negative point one percent furniture and bedding point one percent nothing over here household furnishings and Supply negative point three percent price decreases over here and of course you had some of that energy push up eggs folks look at the eggs deflation another 7.3 percent down milk is down fresh fruits fresh fruits up a little bit but those are very volatile uh okay wow this is an excellent excellent CPI report looking for some additional CPI or Wall Street reactions here let's go to the Wall Street reactions quickly uh reminder uh courses on building your wealth we got two weeks for the next massive price increase this is going to be a big price increase uh adding a lot of value to the courses regularly and uh make sure to check out that you can now bunch up the shadow program if you're a course member large discount you can see that at meet kevin.com so it really incentivizes a reward for existing course members and potentially new course members and then of course check out the free newsletter where you can get daily insights from me by either clicking the description on YouTube right now or looking at my reply tweet on Twitter just go to my profile realme Kevin on Twitter hit replies and it's the first one there okay let's see here cycle high yields are likely to hold uh okay the legitimate case for the Atlanta fed Boston okay wait hold on as expected today's CPI print added fuel to a recent Bond rally by taking away the tail risks for raid hikes with the month over month headline and core numbers both coming in at point two there's legitimate case for the Atlanta feds holding for rate a rate pause basically or holding longer wow rates tumble as Traders abandon a second rate hike fantastic uh okay great dollar tumbles CBI falls short of forecasts this is great I want to get some specific CPI insights let me also look at the tenure and then we're going to look at the five-year Break Even uh pre-market oh yeah I mean all the indices are up I mean Dallas at 0.6 s p is up 0.8 NASDAQ sub one you've got uh the 10-year treasury down 6.3 bips let's look at the actual CPI report for June uh analysts here or analytics results here uh let's see here looking beyond the July meeting for a moment these numbers will make the speech at Jackson Hole a lot more crucial for setting the future of policy oh talking about Jackson Hole again great I didn't like Jacksonville last year that led to a hard one anyway Bill Dudley former president of the New York fed said this opens up the question of whether July will be the last rate hike fed will take some comfort in the fact that core service CPI uh X housing has slowed below four percent oh this is such a good chart I want to show this chart to y'all standby for a moment I want you to see this rollover remember this is the opposite of what's happened at the United Kingdom where you had this Resurgence of inflation in the UK we do not want to see that here so I'm going to pull this chart up and uh describe it for those just listening but basically here's a chart of core Services ex-sh shelter inflation so stripping out shelter and just looking at what those core inflation numbers are doing what do we got here we've got a core inflation coming down from a peak X housing of around 6.8 percent all the way down to uh just under four percent this is a very very good chart we're going to look at those five year Break Even expectations in just a moment you are right to ask about it I want to see it too I really want to see it go to like it this in my opinion well let's just look at it now in my opinion it should probably drop it to 2.1 if not even lower so we yesterday we were at 2.2 I usually have a little bit of a lag in getting the five year Break Even inflation but it should have updated now so I'm gonna guess if I could get a 2.09 I'm gonna get very excited like under 2.1 would be very exciting so let's see what we get 2.15 so it did drop substantially I'll show you I'll zoom into that chart at that bottom right corner here it is falling still so let's see here uh here it is on screen you can see that plummet uh still on the lower trend line we were talking about this yesterday you're still on that lower trend line though so we haven't broken that so if I draw a trend you can see it's still you're still in that Rising path if we break to 2.
you know one three one two we're gonna break that trend line and if we hold under it hopefully those five-year break-evens really start going down and that's going to mean the fed's going to start pricing in uh uh the pause officially and cots let's look at the FED term rate expectation yesterday we were at 5.36 which was fully pricing in the next rate hike I would argue that this should be five point three four five point three two two a nice drop off okay very good very good and if I go to the rate monitor for the fomc Rave right now we are looking at exactly two weeks away from the next fed decision that means we're also two weeks away from the expiration of that coupon code email us at staff at me kevin.com if you have questions still pricing in a 91.8 probability of one more hike however uh the odds of going to a of of staying stable actually those have remained stable so far 73.4 although a little bit more on uh on the pause side okay looking at a bit more uh a lot of talk about higher food prices affecting consumer psychology but inflation and food is becoming less of a story meat poultry fish eggs drop point four percent in June regardless of where you sit on the FED debate inflation decelerated in June to the slowest Pace in more than two years question now is this a genuine turning point nah it's a Nike Swoosh baby oh that was a good one got him everybody's H gonna be this this rapid U-turn it's like nah man it's gonna be slow it's gonna take time for people to realize inflation truly was transitory oh I'm still gonna piss people off for saying that whatever I say stuff to piss people off every day and I sincerely do apologize but I stopped caring so um a dollar 101.15 nice little drop there from uh 101 one uh or 1014 housing costs accounting for 70 of this CPI increase absolutely insane uh so look I mean this is this is phenomenal uh uh this is absolutely phenomenal uh this is great uh by the way if uh if you ever want to uh intern for me send an email to jobs meet kevin.com with a one minute video and you can intern for us potentially we've got a really amazing group right now uh and uh we're very excited about the many differences uh or many different businesses that we are uh expanding we have a lot of fun every single day working on all of them so uh if you're interested you have to work locally no remote sadly all right so the this is great it's a great CPI report thanks for watching
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