저자: Kevin · 외국인
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모건스탠리 마이크 윌슨이 약세에서 일부 반등 가능성을 인정했으나 여전히 현금흐름 괴리와 이익 실망 위험으로 약세 유지. 소비자 자금 여력이 예상보다 커서 경기침체가 회피될 수 있다는 낙관론. 다음 지표(1월 개정치·2월 CPI)가 연준 피벗을 좌우하며, 연준은 2회 추가 인상 후 휴지 예상. 코스트코 실적 분석으로 가격인상 여력과 생산성 중심 경영 강조, 시장에 강세적이라고 판단. 골드만 애플 상향 언급. 채권 부채 이자 부담은 과거 90년대 수준보다 낮아 위기 아니라고 주장.
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Morgan Stanley is a flip-flopping I would have not expected this not at all but Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson the mega bear okay remember he's the guy who says stocks are going to hell the recession's gonna stop suck it's going to be way worse than you expect and basically anybody who's a bull right now is essentially sucking air on Mount Everest which is so oxygen depleted that clearly you're getting delusional because you're not able to think clearly because obviously the stock market's going down that's been Mike Wilson's argument and I remember I made a video about that amount Everest a piece that he put out and I thought it was so ludicrous I thought to myself holy smokes now the Bears are getting delusional in other words the Bears are starting to run out of crap to say about this economy because the reality is is the consumers and businesses have a lot more money than anybody previously thought and it's lasting a whole lot longer than anybody ever thought it would so yes while things are trending bad we seem to have more fuel in the gas to keep this plane flying for a lot longer than we thought a lot more fuel in the gas tank uh which would essentially coincide with this idea of well maybe the plane doesn't have to land yet and maybe we can be patient in getting inflation down before markets actually go into that sort of Mike Wilson recession but anyway my opinion aside Mike Wilson actually just changed his tune a little bit and I'd like to read you a quote take a listen to this Equity markets survived a crucial test of support last week that suggests this bear Market rally is not ready to end yet he specifically pointed out the Spy basically bouncing off of the SMA 200 line which you could see that specifically here we've talked about it many a time before but here's your SMA uh 200 line your simple daily moving average and that 200 daily moving average showed you support at about 390 we ended up getting to a low of about 392 before bouncing off and closing at about 401 a pretty uh pretty pretty traumatic uh moves we've seen over here uh anyway I mean boy that is actually pretty dramatic I mean if you had a low of 392 and you ended up closing at 401 what is that uh 401 divided by 392.
okay yeah it's about a 2.2 percent swing from from previous low to to next state close that's not even next day high which was 404 that's more like a three three and a half percent that's remarkable but anyway Mike Wilson is now calling this a short-term pivot he does however still reiterate that once the fundamentals deteriorate then the real pain will come he says this doesn't change the quote very poor risk reward ratio currently offered by many stocks given valuations and earnings forecasts that remain way too high in other words Mike Wilson is saying look people are just going to run out of money people are going to have money for for to sustain earnings anymore and then earnings are going to disappoint margins are going to disappoint and you're going to have a pretty nasty crash and that the real pain is still ahead of us that's the Mike Wilson point now he says the gap between reported earnings and cash flow a cash flow is the widest that it's been in 25 years driven by excess inventory and capitalized costs that have yet to be reflected in earnings per share so in other words when you spend a bunch of money but you capitalize it you basically spread the expenses over time and so when those spread expenses hit in the future when people finally stop spending as much money we're going to the hell is basically what Mike Wilson's trying to say and now he's trying to hedge his argument that everything's going to Hell by basically saying okay well fine maybe maybe the rally will last a little bit longer but don't worry the bear Market's coming I promise I think that's really interesting because yeah they've they've been you know Mike Wilson has been sort of a bear for quite a while now he was right about uh you know the bearishness that we saw last year but then again every bear was right last year at one point I spent two months as a pair I posted pictures of me skiing uh uh last January and it was basically just a picture of a bear with skis on the ski lift all alone a very sad lonely bear uh but what I always like to do is I try to look at some of the other information that we're getting from other analysts specifically even within Mike within Morgan Stanley I personally wonder if all these people at Morgan Stanley are in the same office and they've like put Mike Wilson in a corner and then you've got like the level-headed people on the main floor that are kind of like there's Mike again ah poor Mike like I I don't know I don't know and who knows maybe he'll end up being ripe but here's yet another piece from Morgan Stanley which is basically the opposite uh and what I thought was interesting about this one and I I try to read everything right I try to read the bear case and I tried to read the bull case and when I hear the Bears arguing that don't worry the pain will come and you must be on Mount Everest because the oxygen is getting thin it makes me think like dude you're running out of facts and when you're running out of facts to support the bear case the bear case is going to go away like so far people and businesses still have lots of money and and I think that's the big thing that everyone is missing is just I want to just grab them by the shoulders now on one hand that could be really bad because we could actually confirm a meaningful re-acceleration of inflation right if in January if the January numbers uh re-accelerate in or continue to prove and re-acceleration here in in February with the data we're getting in March we're screwed Mark Mike Wilson's gonna be right then okay and in fact look you already know this right you already know that coming up we have a jobs report on the 10th we got CPI on the 14th and then we get the FED on the 22nd you already know this but something that we haven't talked about before is that you should not pay attention specifically to those reports you know what e following the revisions I want you to look at the January revisions when this data comes out pay attention to the January revisions because here's the best case scenario in my opinion best case best case we get the Feb data the Feb data comes in slightly soft okay I mean the softer it is obviously the better but you want the FED data to come in soft but then you want the Jan data to be revised down because the Jan data was so ridiculous with seasonal adjustments I'm really hoping for revision down I just want to be really clear here before I keep going through this Morgan Stanley piece if the data for January gets revised down and you get soft February data I think we break through the next levels of support on the retracement levels for everything Bitcoin spy Tech Tesla I don't care what you're investing in AMC oh you know it's not my fault if you want to invest in bankrupt code I mean in AMC uh you know like it's all going up that would be great so revisions pay attention to those really really important but what's Morgan Stanley saying over here so Morgan Stanley suggests that hey in the coming weeks we'll get more data duh we know that but Morgan Stanley believes right now that the FED will only require two more price hikes or or interest rate hikes now that's interesting because we've really been talking about this idea of maybe a pause after March until that January data came out after that January data came out everybody's like oh crap yep we're going to end up seeing rates go up higher for longer and so now we're pricing in that uh that hike in um in may as well in fact if we look at Futures pricing we're about a 71 chance of getting a 25 BP hike oh wow that's actually bullish uh in a uh a 28 chance of a 50 BP hike now I think that's ludicrous I think there's almost no chance we get a 50 BP hike unless of course the data comes in like terribly bad the data would have to be so so bad for jobs and CPI to get a 50.
because it would just shoot The fed's credibility and foot for what they have left and then when we look at May we're looking at probably a somewhere between a yeah it's about a 90 95 chance that we're gonna be up at five and a quarter to five and a half so yeah it's actually closer to like 97 but anyway pretty pretty much a foregone conclusion that by May we're gonna be at five and a quarter on the low end and uh 5.5 on the higher end that's that's essentially a foregone conclusion right uh so but anyway what do we have here so they talk about after these two more Cuts they think the FED will pause so they're setting this up to say that okay June pause and then March of of next year that's when they actually think you get your first cut and you're gonna start seeing 25 BP hikes or Cuts rather now this is pretty far out so what we've noticed is that everything has taken a lot longer than expected unfortunately uh and patience is really really important in this sort of Market but if this ends up playing out uh the way it's expected here as long as people continue to have money to spend between now and then yeah we could be okay in in a crazy way we could be okay to sustain this economy out of a recession it would be I'll tell you it like fate loves irony as Elon Musk always says it would be the most ironic thing to see that the most predicted recession and the steepest hiking cycle in in 40 years does not end up turning into a recession yeah I that Jerome Powell will go down as an absolute hero now I've also been reading some fed papers and it's important to to remember because some people keep talking to me about like oh the fed's definitely going to rug pull us I'm like I don't know man the FED is pretty acutely aware of of the pain that their activity causes in fact let me get to the conclusion on this paper I was just reading this this morning here look at this my favorite line was actually right here where they said such policies uh in in other words if you okay so they talk about keeping rates for too low for too long blah blah but anyway if if you create the risks of financial crises uh then you want to avoid creating the risks of financial crises because of the social political and economic costs that come with them and I thought that was fascinating because it really shows sort of the fed's awareness this is a Fed paper by the way it shows the fed's uh awareness of of look you know if you tighten too hard people lose their jobs people go bankrupt you ruin businesses that potentially could have otherwise thrived so you really impact humans uh you you create misery and depression and increase suicides right like it's terrible to put people through a a nasty recession right this is the Fed themselves does not want to have to pull vulceros because the costs are too high it also hurts our standing of the US dollar and and then of course it hurts the long-term economic uh prosperity of America as well anywho continuing on here fed has made less progress towards disinflation than previously thought for any additional insight into the main meeting we would need to see the evidence that the re-acceleration is real this is basically saying look for us to even remotely think we're going to end up getting uh 50 BP we're going to have to somehow prove that oh yeah everything's re-accelerating and even if you look at Costco's earnings call from the second you're not look you're obviously seeing that prices have gone up uh but uh they're not meaningfully continuing in fact most companies even Costco aren't talking about more future uh you know hikes for wages instead what are they talking about they're talking about autonomy and efficiency I'll just read it to you because I'm not gonna I'm not making this up look at this notwithstanding the two to three off-season wage increases we had over the last 15 months uh we are our which has impacted some slight D leverage D leverage basically this gets a little complicated D leverage means basically their Opex and their cost of goods sold went up a little bit higher than the rate that Revenue increased so notwithstanding this information given that we've only slightly deleveraged is actually pretty impressive given that labor is our biggest expense so then what do they talk about they don't talk about more wage increases instead they talk about it's our productivity we're getting better at productivity and then over here you have an analyst that's saying so if compensation is rising six percent and inflation like nominal prices are going up six percent for goods but traffic is only up three percent then that means you should be seeing revenues down three percent right he's basically saying six and six with offset by three shouldn't be a negative three right and they're responding well people are spending more money on more expensive things so not necessarily uh in other words not simply price inflation it's mix now mix is a really important phrase to remember when you're talking about Finance because it's basically saying people are buying higher margin items at Costco rather than somewhere else so that's good that's a benefit to a car score that actually shows some level of pricing power that can increase average selling prices they're not actually just talking about increasing prices in fact when they're asked about the elasticity of price they say well we don't really analyze price elasticity we basically just focus on this if we lower prices we do more sales so I think it's really interesting because if you go through the earnings call and I'm just going to sum it up because it's a little Arcane but if I make it simple the simplest way to put it is Costco is telling you in my opinion basically the same thing that almost every other company is they're telling you look yeah we had to raise prices but you know what we're doing now we're focusing on the fact that if we want more Revenue we could lower prices if we want more margin we focus on productivity and automating that's really what you're seeing at almost every single company that I've been analyzing I'm trying to find where that automate here it is oh found it look at this uh so inflation has gone up we know that it's gone up in the past we know that and I think the focus now this is important now what are they focus on is trying to figure out how to do things more efficiently one of the things we do religiously every four weeks at the budget meeting is the operators are talking about certain Focus items whether it's improving overtime hours in other words cutting those or things we've done to automate something physically improving the flow of goods in the warehouse so what is pretty much everyone talking about everyone's talking about efficiency automating becoming more productive that's what everyone's talking about nobody's talking about hey we still got a lot more uh you know wage inflation to pass on we still got a lot more price increases ahead of us and if anything they're like yeah like if you want to increase Revenue we could just cut prices in my opinion that's actually very bullish and and that's it's very bullish because it shows even though we're going to go through some volatile hell over the next bit here it's very bullish because the last thing you want is evidence that companies are starting to make you think Paul volcker is coming right this is stuff we look at almost on a daily basis in our course member live streams when we do fundamental analysis we try to understand what kind of pricing power do companies have I encourage you to join those by the way any of the programs comes with but anyway to me this is fantastic this is very good it's also fantastic that uh Goldman Sachs for the first time ever has just turned bullish on Apple saying it has a 32 upside from here 199 dollar price Target they talk about apples widening and increasing install base basically leading to this moat of people not leaving Apple uh and uh really the more people the Venus fly trap in the better that was pretty interesting so uh we'll see we'll see uh but uh pretty excited about that uh you know I know I know some people here uh say things like Paul volcker can't save us either I I mean what I always respond to stuff like this is hey uh what evidence do you have like where where where is the bad because I'm I'm looking for it and people send it to me and then I make a video on it explaining how what they think is bad is actually not that bad you know that's all that's all like usually the bear argument is but but the prices are still up like 10 I'm like yeah no [ __ ] that's how inflation Works stuff gets more expensive done you know like uh it's it what's what matters is the stickiness of that right so um someone here writes Costco croissants are so good wow yeah you mean like in those the white clam shells that were the clear clam shells where you kind of get like that giant box right sup investment Joy what's up man investment I love this guy uh I gotta come back to Chillicothe and visit you super curious what happens if rates hold with 32 trillion debt you can't tax your way out of a one trillion dollar Debt Service yeah here's here's the and it's it's totally understandable because central banks are losing money like hand over fist right now because the yields they're getting on their Investments are substantially lower than what they're having to pay out in the overnight repo facility and really what happens is that's where politicians sort of just basically write a blank check to to print more money and offset those losses now that sounds ironic because it's sort of like hey but if you print more money doesn't that create more inflation not necessarily if that money isn't being then circulated through the economy if it's just going to sort of potentially pay off this deficit that the FED has created uh and and the idea there is well well then won't people lose trust in the institution of America well yeah eventually I mean at some point in the long term every currency generally tends to go to zero because its government loses power power and Trust but in the near term I don't think it's likely that that's actually something that's going to you know sort of destroy our economy I think people have people are so much better off today in in aggregate not everyone obviously uh than they were before the pandemic that uh that that really uh once we get back to a normalized economy I don't think that uh markets will terribly care about the rejiggering that happens at the FED don't get me wrong there'll be some fun things that are going on over there but another thing to keep in mind too is that not uh every set of interest uh or or debt essentially the bond or the the our government has is uh attached to the interest rates that are being paid today right so you got two institutions you've got our government and you've got the fed the vet is paying money hand over Fists in the repo facility like they're losing money right the government has a lot of their debt uh that needs to roll into higher yielding debt and so it basically means the average interest paid is actually still very low for the for the U.S government in fact if you look at here we can look this up St Louis Fred uh debt payments as a percentage of GDP it's still lower than where we were in the 90s interest as a percentage of GDP all right so look at this this chart goes all the way back to the 1940s right so going back to the 1940s what do you have over here you actually have in the 1990s our interest rate or or the interest we were paying as a percentage of GDP was basically around three percent so in other words we're paying three percent uh of our GDP towards interest right now we're only paying about 1.86 or roughly half of our GDP and interest now that is expected to go up but even if it goes back up to the 90s did we really have an economic Calamity in the 90s not really in fact many say to 1994 was really aligned with a soft Landing yeah you had a technical recession in 91 but it's not one ever ever taught anyone ever talks about because it's really not that big of a deal so uh I think that's pretty fascinating yeah so we'll see hey thanks so much for watching and subscribing as well as sharing the videos in case you've enjoyed it make sure to consider getting more perspective via the links Down Below in t's one of our most popular courses zero to millionaire real estate investing that is often bundled uide after that you can also check out the elite Hustlers which has its own special exclusive live stream for people looking to make more money as an individual earner or that is as an entrepreneur or as an employee and of course I check out the other programs specifically for agents or YouTube content creators
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