저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
우크라이나 전쟁이 지역 분쟁으로 고착화되고 국제 공조는 약해지는 중이라는 주장. 서방 제재는 중국·튀르키예·카자흐스탄 등 제3국 우회 수출로 무력화됐고, 미국 군사원조는 468억 달러 수준이며 무기 추적이 안 된다고 비판. 정치적 인기 하락으로 원조가 줄어들 수 있어 러시아가 버티기 전략을 쓸 수 있다고 봄. 전쟁 확전 3차대전 공포는 과장이며 최종적으로 협상 타결(크림·동남부 일부 인정)이 유력하다는 시각.
다듬은 글
now we gotta talk about Ukraine how much money has been spent are sanctions working who's really supporting Ukraine how much money has the United States spent on Ukraine what does the world think what is the world doing what's going on with Ukraine now this is a big deal because obviously we've got an election cycle coming up in 2024 and a lot in my opinion is going to have to do with Ukraine so you've got to know about it not only do you have to know about it because it's going to be part of our election cycle obviously there's a massive amount of loss of life which is terrible happening as well but we have to be aware of what the implications could be for the ending of the war or the continuation of the war in Ukraine so first it's worth remembering that Joe Biden at the beginning of this war talked about how Joe how uh Vladimir Putin could not stay in power after his invasion into Ukraine and initially there was worldwide support for basically beating Russia potentially going as far as calling for regime change in Russia maybe even as far as the assassination of Vladimir Putin yet what's happening recently is almost the complete opposite in fact now according to the Wall Street Journal a massive piece they just released the French and German government realized that the best solution is not trying to defeat Russia but it is rather to push for peace talks in Russia now so far Olaf Schultz the chancellor of the Germany Deutschland and Joe Biden have showed publicly a very United front against Russia and they've publicly been promising massive amounts of either monetary or military support for Ukraine however in private France and Germany some of the biggest players in the EU block are starting to push for negotiated end in Russia that's because initially Russia seemed very isolated only four countries initially backed Russia in their incursion into Ukraine however many more countries are now moving to a very neutral stance viewing this as really a Regional Conference or a conflict that may continue for a while into the future and the world is really becoming much more fragmented see initially the world seemed very United in the number of sanctions that were going to help block semiconductors and aircrafts and even Automotive Parts getting to Russia however those sanctions haven't really devastated Russia as much as we had thought they would would mostly because guess what countries like Kazakhstan China and turkey or Kazakhstan Kazakhstan whatever however you want to say it sorry for my mispronunciation here uh are starting to make up the difference and the shortfall and that's because the world is starting to flip around sanctions take a look at this look at this particular chart here from Bloomberg chip exports to Russia soar Russia is sourcing more semiconductors through third countries in Kazakhstan turkey and Serbia look at the inflection point the inflection point if we draw this right here here and here we're all the beginning of the war so while at the beginning of the war we didn't actually see a lot of countries Provide support or chips to Russia now all of a sudden Russia is filling up the gap of chips that they were originally getting from the United States from other countries in other words other countries are realizing wait a minute if we can import the American semiconductors and just re-export them for a premium to Russia why would we not take that potential profit and that's exactly what's happening because the world is thinking wait a minute there's money to be made here and ultimately we need to think about our own country rather than every other country's desires and right now American sanctions and European sanctions are really being seen as the desire of NATO but not every country necessarily agrees with that Russia's chip imports from the United States fell from about 163 billion dollars to sorry 163 million dollars it's not that high it's not in billions million dollars to about 60 million dollars but now the rest of the world is starting to make up that Gap by importing U.S and european-made ships and then just re-exporting them to Russia the same is being done with cars look at what China is doing initially Russians have their own vehicles and their own automative Parts but now what's happening Chinese passenger vehicles are replacing Russia's supply chain Gap because it's profitable to do so North Korea is sending artillery shells to arm Russia because it's profitable to do so Iran is providing Kamikaze drones and is planning on building a multi-billion dollar Factory to manufacture Kamikaze drones outside of Moscow to help the war effort because it is profitable for Iran to do so now Russia still lacks higher Tech equipment like Precision missile missiles night vision goggles surveillance drones are lacking but what's happening more and more countries are filling in the gap India remains pretty neutral because on one hand they're trying to attract investment into India from companies like apple and Tesla who are moving from China to potentially India or are considering adding fabrication capabilities in India while at the same time India is also helping Supply Russia with equipment that they're exporting to Russia and also at the same time importing Russian oil which Russian oil sanctions have been nearly a complete abject failure see back in the pre-World War II days sanctions actually meant something we could actually sanction a company and they would have an impact yet today what do we have well we have individuals like an analyst Mr Paul Sankey Paul Sankey he works at senki research he's an oil analyst and what does he say he says quote the oil price caps and the sanctions against Russia were quote invented by bureaucrats with Finance degrees none of them really understand oil markets the sanctions against Russia from oil for oil have been quote a total bomb a complete failure so in other words the world is basically just adapting to a world at war or rather Russia at war with Ukraine and now we have to also ask ourselves how much is Russia really capable of doing well so far Russia is capable of fighting in Crimea and Southeast Ukraine that's it Russia hasn't been able to get much further now sure it could be argued that the reason they haven't been able to get much further is because of Western support but whatever the reason is Russia who you know you've got a lot of folks in America clamoring about saying oh my gosh Russia is a nuclear threat oh no Russia is going to attack the United States in Western Europe uh uh oh no we're screwed if we don't defeat Russia all of Russia so far has not been able to get any further than Southeastern Ukraine and Crimea Ukraine which this is not a slam on Ukraine this is just this is just I mean Google it yourself Ukraine has one of the it's probably actually has the worst corruption rating in Europe and one of the poorest countries in Europe that is not a bag on Ukraine it's just to say a country that is rated at that level is having is basically holding off Russia so how much of a threat really is Russia when we think about it that way are they really a nuclear Loose Cannon so it's worth thinking about that because so far as much as we want the conflict to end and I'm a big fan of this conflict being over this idea that oh we're about to go into a world war three seems a little extreme because if world war three is starting with we can't really chop away Southeastern Ukraine then World War III is is not like a World War it's a regionalized conflict now that's important to consider and again it's not to say that Ukrainian sovereignty shouldn't be respected but it is an argument that Russia's not doing so fantastically well enough to really create concerns for World War III and Ukraine isn't able to get him out of Southeast Ukraine so the reality is this is probably going to drag on until the money dries up on one side and ultimately there's a negotiated settlement that's probably the way things are leaning right now and that's probably why you're seeing a lot of countries become a lot more neutral on this consider Dubai is a hub now for Russians where Western sanctions can't reach people in Dubai part of the United Arab Emirates half of African countries are abstaining from denouncing at the United Nations Russia's incursion into Ukraine Colombia recently refused A United States request to provide weapons to Ukraine by arguing quote we will not help prolong any War Brazil makes the argument that quote if one does not want to two cannot fight now we can have a whole separate video on that argument because obviously the Ukrainian argument is here hey we're being invaded we're being forced to fight but it shows you that not every country is saying hey this is something we really need to heavily focus on and countries are starting to focus on themselves for example Hungary was the one EU country basically delaying and standing in the way of a certain EU decisions that require unanimous consent in fighting Russia in helping a non-uh a non-nato member Ukraine and so Hungary is even standing in the way of of some of this United fight against Russia now you do have the U.S Germany France Italy and UK who seem staunchly behind Ukraine but Russia is also getting a lot of dare I say neutral or blatant support from countries around other parts of the world whether those are African countries Middle Eastern countries or Asian countries so it feels like you're kind of creating a cataclysm of sort of two uh axes if you will of of a potential World War but really most countries seem to be looking at this as what it right now is a regional conflict making people question their heads or or scratch their heads on how much do we really want to be involved in this and so this is where we have to look at the charts and the amount of money that's being spent to support Ukraine where is most of the money coming from take a look at this you ready for this this is a chart that show from the Council of foreign relations this is a chart that shows U.S Aid to Ukraine far exceeds that from other countries look at this military aid to Ukraine over 46 billion dollars from the United States where is the military aid from EU institutions oh it's basically zero now there is military aid from the United Kingdom Germany Canada Poland France the Netherlands Norway but look how small the highest one is somewhere around six billion dollars from the United from the United Kingdom we're at 46 billion now yes we are a larger economy but we're also not in Europe look at the countries within Europe that are that are supporting uh or sending the most amount of money as a percentage of GDP so now this is useful because it shows you as a percentage of GDP who's spending more money and in this case Estonia Latvia Lithuania and Poland are spending the most amount of money as a percentage of GDP to fight off Russia now that makes a lot of sense because those are the countries that are potentially most at risk of Russia being on their doorstep more than they already are so that makes sense but again it shows you how regionalized this conflict is even Germany who's Olaf Schultz you know slams his fists on the tables going hey come on Spain come on Poland you all said you're gonna send tanks to Ukraine where are they and then you get countries like Portugal saying yeah we don't know if our tanks actually work we'll send refurbed ones but we we don't know if the stuff we have actually functions you can't make this stuff up that's literally what's happening but shows you that obviously the countries that are putting most of the money into this are ones most closely potentially affected by what appears right now to be a very regional conflict and again I want to make it clear I denounce the loss of life especially innocent life men women and children who have nothing to do with the war effort losing their lives is not fair it's terrible it's a travesty it's a tragedy I I can't stand to even uh think about how horrible it is the atrocities that are happening the fact is that's true on both sides you know people are losing their sons and daughters in this war and I can never imagine that having two children I I can't imagine it so it's terrible but the point is look at where the money is coming from 76.8 billion dollars of aid going to Ukraine from the United States this is a massive amount of money the United States has sent to Ukraine look at how it breaks down 46.6 billion dollars are going into the military 18.3 into security assistance which includes training equipment weapons Logistics support and other assistance provided through the Ukraine security assistance initiative 23.5 billion dollars going to weapons and equipment 4.7 going to Grants and loans for weapons and equipment 26.4 billion dollars going directly into economic support loans and other financial support so they can maintain their government humanitarian Aid at 3.9 billion dollars for food Healthcare Refugee support in other words passive amount of money flowing into Ukraine here is the Arsenal that is going into Ukraine from the United States 8 500 javelins 1600 stingers 13 000 grenade launchers and small bombs uh Small Arms 75 000 sets of body armor one Patriot air defense system I'm not going to read all this 20-manned aircraft uh well 20 M1 uh sorry Mi 17 helicopters uh 700 switchblade drones an 1800 ghost drones 15 surveillance drones 109 Bradley tanks 1700 Humvees satellite services radar communication Services 16 160 rather howitzers 155 millimeter howitzers 38 High Mars systems I mean this is a massive amount of stuff like I would be wetting myself if I was like Lockheed Martin and uh you know part of the military industrial complex right now because I'm like dude I gotta make more and that's kind of exactly what's happening the military industrial complex is salivating over this because there's so much of a backlog that is being uh created for these uh for the military manufacturers to continue Manufacturing but in a weird way maybe not a weird way actually the world is seeming to come to terms with this idea that this regional conflict is likely to go on for a while and according to Foreign Affairs magazine that might be exactly what Putin's plan is how long can he last and get to maybe the 2024 elections where then you end up having a politically unpopular War start really coming up for discussion in European elections and American elections or otherwise that could potentially slow the tap of funding you already have Republicans including Donald Trump saying they want to limit the Department of Defense spending to limit the amount of money that is being sent to Ukraine so the political unpopularity of sending money to Ukraine is already building up Putin just has to Outlast the money supply and that might be the strategy he is implementing especially since you have dare I say a near apologist for the military-industrial complex CNN okay and look I get it CNN has as one narrative okay we know that and they are nearly an apologist for the military-industrial complex this is a company that I personally had to send a cease and desist letter to when they censored my Governor campaign for governor of California I came in second out of recall candidates okay they chose to prop up their governor they were censoring my campaign we almost sued them anyway even CNN who basically is nearly an apologist for the Biden Administration they say the U.S has quote few ways to track the substantial supply of anti-tank anti-accura aircraft and other Weaponry it has sent into Ukraine in other words we have no idea where all of the stuff the equipment we are sending to Ukraine is going it's time to start buying some Apple Air tags and attaching them to multi-million dollar pieces of equipment you think a four pack of 99 of Apple Air tags could actually give us some Intel on where this equipment is going but apparently that's not a priority it is not a priority to use a 25 Apple Air tag on a multi-million dollar piece of equipment so we can know where the hell it is and see if it's falling into the wrong hands because for some reason that is too complicated for the government to orchestrate because after all quote in the fog of War weapons drop into a big black hole you'll almost have no sense of where the weapons go after a short period of time that is literally what the United States government says as an excuse to why we don't track all of the weapons that go into Ukraine especially expensive stuff it's uh well it's the fog of War this is just how things are done now look I get it a lot of the weapons that go into Ukraine are picked up in Poland they're picked up on certain trucks in Poland then guess what they're tracked by Russia Russia wants to know where those weapons are going duh because they want those weapons so what does Ukraine do well at night they switched their trucks they put them into different trucks they put them into different train cars they put them into different things to purposefully confuse where these things are going to obfuscate where these things are going they're doing that on purpose to make it harder for Russia to track them but in doing Sam so it also makes it harder for us to see what's going on and have any kind of accountability this is where I petition the US government start using Apple Air tags yes I am an active Apple shareholder and yes I run an exchange traded fund as a licensed financial advisor and sell courses on building your wealth and I'm a real estate broker and I hold Apple shares in that fund okay yes it is true but from a logic point of view my bias aside it seems reasonable to want to track we're very expensive military equipment is going we literally just sent another 11 Mi 17 helicopters another 300 switchblade drones another 18 155 millimeter Howitzer cannons and another round of javelins and stingers and S 300 air defense systems above and beyond the chart that I just showed you we just allocated even more but yet our government tells us that they can't have any clue of knowing where these weapons are going or if they're falling into the right hands remember Afghanistan a lot of our weapons that we left in Afghanistan after being there for 20 years guess what it helped create the foundation of the new talibani government it's the way War works you buy lots of crap when you leave it behind military industrial complex doesn't care because the more weapons get left behind the more new weapons we have to make to fight the people who are now using all of the weapons we previously made and left behind it's a disaster it's all a disaster and it's going to continue to become extremely politically unpopular even to the extent that now just to show you how there's a lack of regional Unity against this war in Ukraine two Iranian warships were just allowed to dock in Rio de Janeiro Brazil even after warnings from President Biden president Lula who defeated bolsonaro bolsonaro really deemed to be basically the Trump of Brazil he basically had his own Freedom Riot or Insurrection depending on whatever side of the aisle you're on I don't really care I try to report stuff mostly in the middle uh obviously everybody's got a bias I really think I do my best to just try to be in the middle here but anyway so you've got Lola who's initially uh denying Iranian warships for from docking in Brazil vowing to deny Iranian or Iranian Iranian whatever request to doctor military warships but basically after he became president he's like yeah you know what it's okay Iran you can dock here and this is a slap in the face to Joe Biden while at the same time Iran is supporting Russia but it shows you the lack of regional or really World consistency against this war in Ukraine and this is why a lot of folks are saying support for the war in Ukraine is over this is a regional conflict it's going to keep dragging on it did it lasted way longer than people expected and unfortunately it's probably going to have to come down to countries like the United States Germany France France and Italy helping negotiate a solution rather than taking this approach that we did in Afghanistan which was quote unquote we will not negotiate with terrorists well so then we stayed in Afghanistan for 20 years and embarrassingly left out left a massive power vacuum which led to the collapse of the Afghani government which we spent 20 years and hundreds of billions of dollars to build potentially trillions of dollars to build and that was eradicated within weeks of us leaving because we left a power vacuum Taliban took our weapons and moved it it's the same problem that Russia had in the 70s we didn't learn lessons then remember Russia was in Afghanistan in the 70s when we say oh we need to invade Iraq because of in Afghanistan because of potential weapons of mass destruction when Russia was there in the 70s we gave them plans for nuclear weapons anyway point is there's a massive disaster going on in the world right now that basically is a middle finger to the Biden Administration and the Ukrainian government and that is that the world does not know doesn't does no longer unanimously support and actually never really has uh this war in Ukraine uh that means supporting the Ukrainian defense is does not have unanimous support supporting Russia does not have unanimous support but actually has growing support whether it's in circumventing sanctions protecting Russian oligarchs in the UAE uh circumventing car sanctions oil sanctions uh chip sanctions the world does not seem to care about the war in Ukraine the world seems to be writing this off as a regional conflict not as a potential World War III risk maybe that's what was initially deemed but the idea of world war three seems to be far-fetched right now now on one hand that's fantastic news because I don't I don't want to start making World War III videos as much as I made stimulus videos I would much rather just talk about drum Powell and Federal Reserve and stocks I like so my opinion on all of this world war three massively overblown fear-mongering the world does not seem to care that sounds very insensitive but it's just a cold hard reality when we start putting all of the pieces of the puzzle together the world is not committed to the idea of Ukraine maintaining all of their land and not negotiating with Putin the world seems much more committed to the idea that this is going to drag on until finally we get a negotiated settlement where maybe Russia takes officially again Crimea and parts of Southeast Ukraine like the Dennis region we have no idea what's going to obviously end up happening but that seems to be the sentiment of world governments
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