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We launched the equipment . Welcome back. I hope you are doing well today. So, I have to talk about Grab Holdings stock, because Okay, I'm going to cut you off. I never liked Grab Holdings. I said that I don't think this situation is worth our time for investment. Now it has dropped to three. I think it's a $3 promotion .
Remember, stocks can fall to zero. Let's move on to Jimbo, I didn't appreciate that interruption. However, knowing your accuracy in predictions, it looks like we could double in the near future. So thank you for your insight. Okay, I'm kidding Jimbo a little, but this promotion interests me right now .
So, Grab came into my field of vision back in 2022. The price was in the above $2 range, as it is now. And I saw it go up to about $7 at its peak. But now, seeing it back in the $2 range , I'm thinking, "What are they doing with this business? Is it going to fail?" I need to find out if there is an opportunity to make money here.
What's happening with Grab? That's why I'm making this video today, to try to find answers. Many consider Grab to be the undisputed super app of Southeast Asia. They just released a record second quarter report, and we'll be taking a closer look at it soon . But for starters, revenue grew 22% year-over-year to $997 million.
And adjusted EBITDA soared by an incredible 54% to 168 million. And on paper, net profit increased to 235 million. Compared to 20 million just a year ago. I saw this number and said, "What's going on here? Are they printing money out of thin air?" Out of nowhere, and I thought it was probably an acquisition or something, which is perfectly normal.
It just confused me for a moment. But yes, 307 million of that profit came from a one-time accounting gain when Grab consolidated Indonesian digital bank Superbank in June. So, if we exclude this non-cash accounting income , Grab's actual underlying operating profit was much more modest—21 million. Still, that's 12 million better than last year, and it marks the 18th consecutive quarter of adjusted EBITDA growth for Grab.
However, Grab's operating profit in the first quarter of 2026 was 26 million. So that's a decrease of 5 million compared to the previous quarter. Well, that's a little confusing. However, Grab is no longer the cash-burning startup it used to be . Now they are no longer fighting for survival. After a closer look at the numbers, it turns out that this is a disciplined platform, and we'll get to that in a moment.
But first, why did stocks fall to a 52- week low right now? At the time of writing, the price is $2.80. After all, after the earnings report, the shares were trading at almost $4. And, more importantly, is this a temporary sale ? Does this create a huge buying opportunity? This is exactly what we need to find out.
So, let's take a look at what's really going on in Grab's three main areas of operation. First, let's talk about delivery. Gross merchandise volume (GMV) on demand reached 6.5 billion. This is 21% more year-on-year . Delivery revenue increased by 24% in constant currency. But in my opinion, the real star here wasn't the food delivery, but GrabMart.
This is, uh, grocery delivery. GrabMart's GMV grew 1.7 times faster than food delivery, and the number of food users increased by 42 %. According to Chief Operating Officer Alex Gungate, currently, food users make up only 14% of Grab's total food user base. So this leaves huge scope for cross- selling as Grab expands partnerships with supermarkets in the region.
Now, as for mobility, i.e. the ride-hailing service, mobility GMV grew 18 % year-over-year, and the number of ride transactions jumped 28%. What's impressive is that Grab achieved this despite spending 7 million on driver fuel support programs after gasoline prices jumped in March. Gas prices are much higher now, so we need mobility GMV to continue to outperform to offset future driver support costs.
The number of monthly active drivers also reached an all-time high, up 19%, and driver earnings increased by 4%. But the good news is that the adjusted mobility rate remained stable at 8.6%, in line with management's historical target range of 8.5–9%. This is the level they usually want to be at. So that was nice to see.
Finally, we saw overall user growth—the monthly number of transacting users reached a record 54 million. It's great to see them bringing more users into the ecosystem, and CEO Anthony Tan emphasized that the growth was driven by real transactions and an increase in active users. So, folks, this isn't just a price increase.
These 54 million monthly users represent an increase of 8 million in a year. So, that's about 17–18 % growth and a consistent increase of 2 million users every quarter. So that's a jump of about 4%. But how does Grab manage to squeeze out such growing margins? Well, the CFO revealed the main factor: artificial intelligence.
Grab has deeply integrated AI into its operational and cost structure. Grab told us that they are using AI to improve performance and speed. Autonomous coding agents have reduced product release time by 30%, and in some cases tripled the speed compared to last year. AI also helps them improve sales efficiency.
During an earnings Q&A session, Grab confirmed that its proprietary analytics platform, Brix, saves sales teams about 40,000 hours each quarter. They are also seeing improvements in driver and salesperson support. Grab's AI infrastructure processes trillions of tokens every month. The cost of one AI interaction with drivers and vendors has halved, even despite a tenfold increase in the number of monthly interactions.
AI also helps them reduce the risk of default in the lending business. He helps with credit scoring in fintech. So machine learning models are now assessing the creditworthiness of drivers and vendors who don't have traditional bank accounts . Thanks to all these advantages, adjusted EBITDA growth exceeded revenue growth by more than double, raising EBITDA margin to 16.9% compared to 13.3% a year ago.
Now let's talk about the direction that, in my opinion, has the greatest potential. This is a financial services division. Management announced that financial services should reach adjusted EBITDA profitability in the second half of 2026 . So, by the end of the year, Grab expects its total loan portfolio to exceed $3 billion.
How are they building this fintech monster? They organized a real asset hunt. The first is SeaBank. This website seems a little strange to me, but I guess that's the culture there. I'm not judging , but I went to the site and thought, "Wow." But Grab became the majority owner of SeaBank in May 2026, and SeaBank already has over 7 million customers, processes over 1 million transactions daily, and over 60% of SeaBank users are already integrated into Grab and Ovo .
Ovo is an Indonesian digital bank and mobile wallet that Grab acquired back in 2021. SeaBank became profitable at the end of 2025 , with return on equity before tax reaching almost 6%, and the cost-to- income ratio approaching 50%. Grab also acquired Stash, an American digital investment platform. They completed the deal in July 2026, and this American wealth management platform has over $5 billion in assets under management, growing by 22% annually, with over 1 million paid subscribers.
And it does n't end there, as Grab has agreed to acquire a controlling 60 % stake in the "buy now, pay later" platform Atome Financial for 1.49 billion in cash. Atome attracts 25 million unique users in the areas of deferred payments and digital lending. Do you see what's happening here? Do you understand what they are doing?
Remember, 85% of Southeast Asian adults do not have access to formal credit cards or bank loans. Grab is positioning itself as the main financial engine for the entire region, friends. They are going to control all of this. Thanks to this powerful momentum, Grab management has officially raised its full-year 2026 forecast , but it should fall to zero, right, Honey Money Cramer?
We are heading towards zero. I don't think so. They raised their revenue forecast from 4.1 billion to 4.15 billion. This is an annual growth of 22-23%. Previously, growth of 20-22% was expected. As for the EBITDA indicator, it ranges from 720 to 740 million. This is a 44-48% growth year-on-year. And the previous growth forecast was from 40% to 44%.
So, they are moving in the right direction . This updated forecast takes into account a 2-3% negative impact from exchange rates and continued support for drivers on fuel. So these future costs are already included in their revenue and EBITDA projections. So there shouldn't be any surprises during the next earnings report.
At least, I hope so. Management also puts money back into shareholders' pockets. In August, they approved an additional share buyback program worth 750 million. And in September, they announced that they had approximately 900 million remaining within the authorized redemptions to be executed over the next 12 months, bringing the total redemption amount to 1.75 billion from 2024.
And all of this is backed by $7.4 billion in cash liquidity . So, Grab is buying back shares while being in a financially stable position. And at current price levels, it would n't surprise me if we later find out that they bought a bunch of these stocks below three. We will find out later. I hope they did .
OK. I am usually optimistic about most stocks I review. I maintain a positive view on many stocks, despite short-term bad news, market declines, or one-off weak earnings reports. However, when making these videos, I always point out several risks for companies that can arise and that we should be aware of.
So, no matter how optimistic or biased I may seem, I still like to consider some risks. So let's talk about them now. OK. So, let's talk about the first risk—that is valuation and margin. Grab's current P/E ratio is somewhere between 25 and 30, depending on how earnings are calculated and the market price of the stock.
Therefore, I would say that Grab shares are trading at a slight premium compared to some valuation models, which means that the stock is dependent on continued earnings and revenue growth to sustain that premium. Now, for Grab to justify a higher multiple in the future, we need to see operating margins continue to grow, rather than stagnate .
And that's something I'll be watching closely in the next financial report. The second problem is regulation. Grab's proposed acquisition of Foodpanda Taiwan for $600 million is currently under review by Taiwan's Fair Trade Commission , in part due to Uber's 13% stake in Grab. A decision is expected at the end of October, so we'll see what happens next.
Regulation in Indonesia regarding this company and many others like it is strict. And when we talk about regulation, this is the worst part of it, as Indonesia has strictly limited the commission that Grab and other ride-hailing platforms can charge drivers. The Indonesian government has reduced the platform's maximum commission limit to 8% from the previous 20%.
As a result, Grab cannot arbitrarily set its own profit. The company's ability to set commission rates for each trip is legally limited. Grab officially implemented this 8% commission cap on July 1, 2026. Currently, this 8% restriction only applies to passenger transportation services on motorcycles, i.e.
two-wheeled trips. And that's a problem because motorcycles are the backbone of Indonesia's gig economy. This does not yet apply to four-wheeled online taxis or individual courier deliveries, but I am sure that this will also happen in the future . So, in the end, drivers are legally guaranteed to keep at least 92% of the fare revenue.
There is also mandatory insurance. In addition to cutting Grab's commission, regulation forces the company to provide occupational accident insurance and health insurance for its driver- partners, which adds structural costs. We have also recently seen protests by drivers over fees in markets like Vietnam.
So I'm not sure how they're going to balance driver pay with corporate profitability. So it's a little unsettling for me to invest in these stocks, and I think that's why Grab is refocusing so strongly on financial services. Maybe they see what's going on. Well, that's all for Grab for today. I wish I had a crystal ball to look 5 years ahead, and what would I see there?
What would we see? I want to be optimistic about this issue. I want to be optimistic about this company, and if I think about the macroeconomic drivers for Grab, well, it could be very big. This can be very large-scale. Southeast Asia's digital economy is now projected to double to $2 trillion by 2030 , and the region is set to become the world's fourth-largest economy.
So, in November 2026, a summit will be held that will be the world’s first and most comprehensive regional agreement dedicated to the digital economy, which could reduce regulatory compliance costs, simplify cross-border transactions, and expand the market for companies that can scale digitally. So this could be a huge help for Grab, among other companies.
Ultimately, I believe Grab is a more mature company today that generates cash flow. They have about $6 billion in cash and short-term investments, and they are turning into a self-sustaining super app. Their profits are growing, they have strong network effects, and they are aggressively expanding their fintech businesses.
Well, I don't know. There is a lot of buzz around this company in the markets and in the news . What do we think? Should we intervene? Is Jimbo Cramer right about this? Will the stock fall to zero? This is a speculative stock. I do n't know, but let me end with this. Speculative stocks will always be part of my portfolio.
My briefcase. Um, not a big part, but it's a small part. And with all that speculative junk, all those speculative stocks that I was once involved in, and maybe some of you were in some of them too. But if I agreed that this stock, Grab, is speculative, then it would be the best, most highly rated speculative stock I have ever invested in.
Um, the one with the best financial performance, the best growth prospects, the most cash on hand. The kind I've ever dealt with. So, most speculative stocks don't have fundamental financial metrics like this one. So I like to think of it that way . Um, I might add this to my portfolio as a speculative stock, and you know, I like the risk-reward ratio here.
So I'm going to see, I think I know what to do. I need to spend some time raising money and I think I can make a move on Grab, but I will also keep a close eye on the price chart and see what it shows. So, um, because she fell, she just fell so hard . This is hard to believe. But that's all for today.
Thank you for watching. I appreciate it, and if you have any thoughts on Grab, let me know in the comments, because I need to understand whether I should get involved. So I could use some help. OK. Well , see you in the next video. I hope you are well. Take care of yourself. See you later.
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