저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
은·금 급등 후 조정은 비정상이 아니라 정상적 흐름이며 강세장은 지속된다고 주장. 중앙은행·동양 수요 증가, 물리적 은 공급 부족과 프리미엄 상승을 근거로 제시. 금은 고점 대비 약 10% 조정이라 매수 매력적, 은은 변동성 크지만 50달러 아래로는 안 갈 것이라 봄. 특정 자산 중 은·금 외 종목 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
Oh my god, look how much silver went down. And I think the bull market in gold is going to persist. Uh, you know, gold, it's not to be unexpected. Gold and silver just went through one of their most volatile moves in years, but according to Peter Schiff, you can't look at this drop in isolation. It came after a massive breakout, especially in silver, that pushed prices into historic territory.
So, is this a bubble popping or just a healthy correction in a much bigger bull market? In this video, Schiff breaks down the volatility, the US economy, physical silver shortages, and why he believes the metals are headed much higher. You can't um look at that volatility without looking at what preceded it.
So, we had a spectacular rise in in gold and silver. The gold rally really took place over a more extended period of time. really gold broke out in early 2024 and had a slow and steady rise uh to 4,000. Then it kind of had a very quick move from 4,000 to above 5,500. Silver really went nowhere as gold went from 2,000 to 4,000 and then finally moved from 3,000 to 120.
And in fact the move from 80 to 120 was like a few days. Uh so I think once silver broke out above 50 that was both a psychological and a technical uh overhead resistance going all the way back to the Hunt brothers and 1980. So I think once that happened a lot of money came into silver came into gold and silver obviously got ahead of itself.
The exchanges came in several rounds of uh you know margin hikes and I think some of the speculators got caught and there was you know a lot of volatility. People got forced out of positions. Uh a lot of uh weaker longs might have bailed out. you saw the media talking about a silver bubble uh which you know bubbles don't form over a matter of days or weeks.
It's something that forms over a much longer period of time than that. Um but I think a lot of people uh may have been scared out of the market who recently got in. Maybe other people were motivated to take profits hearing all of the talk of a bubble and the bubbles popped and the market's going to go down.
But I think the volatility uh makes sense given the move that preceded it. I think it's a huge breakout in silver. I think silver prices are headed substantially higher from here. Uh I I think a lot of this volatility will ultimately uh you know go away and I think we'll see a far more orderly appreciation of silver.
maybe something more similar to what was going on with gold up until uh the recent volatility and I think the bull market in gold is going to persist. Uh you know gold is only about 10% off its highs. So you know nothing like silver down 30 40% from its highs. So it's just a normal correction in the a silver in the gold bull market.
But I think what happened in silver is a very rare event, but it coincides with something that was also rare, which was this massive breakout in in in silver. Uh so I think, you know, I think it's very bullish for the metals and even more so for the miners. I think the the precious metals mining companies are are even cheaper and uh Wall Street is still not woken up to that reality either.
I I don't know that I would say a normal move. I'm just saying that given the abnormal rally that we had and breaking out of such massive overhead resistance, it's not to be unexpected. It's not like, oh my god, look how much silver went down. Yes, but you can't look at that in a vacuum. You have to look at how much it went up and you know, right before then.
And even when you're talking about, oh, silver crashed, okay, but where did it crash from and where did it crash to? Because, you know, if it's crashing into the $70 an ounce level, that's not a crash, you know, other than for the people who happen to buy it at 120, which, you know, was only one day.
the vast majority of my clients who have been buying silver from me for 20 years. I, you know, I started um selling my clients silver under $5 an ounce. So for my clients, $70, $80 silver doesn't look like a crash. It looks like a really good price. Well, I think it makes sense because obviously gold is under accumulation in the east and the [clears throat] selling has been coming from the west.
uh and I think the the east has it right. I think you know China is correct that buying gold is the right thing to do and that the price is going to go higher to the extent there are speculators in the US that don't get this uh and that want to short gold and silver or who want to sell the gold and silver they have because they think it's some kind of a bubble.
I think they've got it wrong. And I I think the buyers have a lot more dollars than that they need to convert into gold and silver than the speculators can short as far as their ability to short and sell gold and silver that they don't own and have no ability to deliver. Absolutely. No, it may makes sense.
And uh we've seen that trend, you know, for for a number of months now. 15 months of Chinese central bank buying, for example, is a constant reminder. Chinese central banks. There's a lot of other central banks that are buying and there's private demand that is growing, not just around the world, but you're now starting to see some private demand in the US.
So, it's picking up all over the world. Well, I mean, I think, you know, buying gold anywhere below or close to 5,000, I think still makes sense. I I don't think there's significant downside risk. To me, gold is acting around 5,000 the way it acted around 4,000, the way it acted around 3,000. Uh, but also buying gold at 5,000, you're getting it 10% below its high.
So, that is a a decent correction. Does it mean it can't go to 4,900 or 4,800 or 4750? No, it doesn't mean that. But who cares, right? If you're if you're buying gold as a long-term store of value, it doesn't matter if after you buy it, it gets a couple hundred an ounce cheaper. In fact, you could always buy more.
As far as silver, expect more volatility. So, silver, as we're talking, is just below 76. Yes, it could easily fall below 70 and so you'd be down close to 10% on paper if you bought some here. But again, I wouldn't worry about it. I don't think silver's going back down below 50. In fact, I don't even think it's going to get anywhere near 50.
So, I think we're not that far. Maybe the upper 60s or, you know, low7s is maybe about as cheap as you can get it. But the other problem you have is that physical silver is getting harder to procure. So, the premiums that people are paying now on silver coins and bars, especially low denomination, are higher.
So even if silver goes down $10, it doesn't mean you'll be able to buy it $10 cheaper if you actually want physical. So you've got two things working there. You've got, you know, the scarcity of the physical metal. Yeah, if you want to buy a futures contract, you may be able to buy it, but buying a futures contract is not the same as getting metal delivered to your door, you know, which is what we're doing at Shift Gold.
So I I just tell people just buy whatever we got while we have it in stock cuz I could tell by what's happening in the market that we're going to run out at some point. It's going to be hard to get silver phys uh because I think there's been a big disconnect between the paper market and and the real market and eventually that's going to resolve itself with the futures moving higher.
Uh but in in the short run, you know, the futures price could do whatever it's going to do, but the physical market is limited by the actual supply of deliverable silver and the demand for that silver, which is growing not just by investors, but by industry that needs silver. So if you if you're, you know, making batteries and the batteries need silver, you can't just buy a silver contract.
You you you can't put the contract into your battery. You got to actually have real silver delivered to you. So you have to buy it in a physical market on how much silver [snorts] can come out of a mine. There's, you know, there's only so much the mines can produce. They just can't turn on a new mine just because silver is higher in price.
They just can't say, "Oh, let's let's mine more silver." Uh most of these miners were already mining as much silver as they could uh at at at the older prices. but also has to do with the refiners. You know, if they run out of inventory that, you know, they can't magically transfer bullion into into into coins and bars, you know, the raw silver.
So, if all of a sudden there's a big increase in demand by investors, they just don't have the capacity to immediately supply it all. So, you get a backlog and you get delays. uh so you know then obviously people will start to pay more money for a more immediate delivery of of their metals. So all these things are happening.
I mean I could tell you at shift gold business was very slow for the last several years. It just picked up a lot in the last month to the point that we've never been this busy. But to go from a very slow um you know environment to all of a sudden busy well you don't have the the manpower. You don't have the resources.
You're not used to it. All of a sudden there's a big increase. Uh and and that's not unique to my company. Obviously it's happening all over the industry. So yeah, we've hired some more people. We're ramping up um to deal with it. But you know that there there's going to be problems throughout the entire distribution channel when all of a sudden there's a lot more demand for for the metal.
So according to Peter Ship, this volatility isn't the end of the move. It's part of a much bigger trend. With central banks buying, physical demand rising, and Wall Street still underestimating the rally, the story in gold and silver may be far from over. If you found this breakdown valuable, make sure to like the video, subscribe, and turn on the bell so you don't miss our next analysis. Thanks for watching, and we'll see you in the next one.
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