저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 관세 충격으로 9% 하락했지만 매수 기회는 아니라는 주장. 4Q24 매출 +2%, 자동차 매출 -8%, 영업이익률 6.2%(전년 8.2%)로 악화. 1Q25 인도량 336,681대(전년 대비 약 50,000대 감소), 고가 모델 5,000대 감소. 판매 둔화가 가속화되고 있으며 에너지 부문(+113%)은 규모가 작아 상쇄 불가. 관세와 경기 둔화, 유가 하락이 EV 수요에 부정적. 포워드 PER 69는 여전히 고평가로, AI 기업보다 비싸다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Tesla stock is down another 9% today as the impact of President Donald Trump's tariffs are hitting stocks far and wide. Now investors are re-evaluating Tesla and trying to understand how it'll be impacted by the tariffs and if this dip is a buying opportunity. So, first I'll evaluate Tesla's business, the most recent developments, the announcements on production and deliveries.
Look at the company's manufacturing and where it manufactures its products, and then bring it all together and answer if this dip is a buying opportunity for those that were looking at a chance to get Tesla stock at a lower price. , let's start with the most recent developments. And I first wanted to highlight the revenue and profit margin prospects for Tesla.
In the most recently completed fourth quarter of 2024, Tesla's total revenue only increased by 2%. That was due to a big decrease in automotive revenues, which was down 8%. The energy segment is thriving. It was up 113%. But it's still a relatively small portion of its overall business. And so fast growth in that category is not offsetting the bigger declines in the automotive segment, which likely worsened.
And I'll share with you why I think that's the case. The operating margins were down by 204 basis points all the way to just 6.2%. And that was down from 8.2% in the same quarter last year. This actually uh probably decreased again in the current quarter when the company will report its figures a little bit later in April.
Tesla also reported its production and delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2025. On April 2nd, Tesla reported 336,681 vehicles delivered with 4% of those vehicles subject to lease accounted. You can see here from Tesla's shareholder letter that in the same quarter last year, they sold or delivered 386,810 vehicles.
So from 386,000 to 336,000, that's 50,000 lower deliveries. And that's a bigger than 8% decline year-over-year in vehicle deliveries. The revenue number is actually likely to be much worse than the the delivery number. And here's why. Last year in the same quarter, they sold 17,000 other models. And these are the higher priced models, the Model S, the Model X, right?
Those are higher average selling prices which generate more revenue for Tesla. In the current quarter, they only delivered 12,881 of these other models, which also this year includes the Cybert truck. So this year they have a third vehicle in the lineup, and yet they sold 5,000 fewer than they sold in the same time last year.
That just goes to highlight how much demand for Tesla's vehicles are falling and why Tesla's management team needs to always reinforce the idea about some time in the future where they will be a AI company, driverless cars, robotics because looking at just the car business, it gets investors not interested in paying these super high valuations for a business that's in decline, right?
You don't want to pay these high valuations. You've got to justify the high valuations in some way. And Tesla's management team has done an excellent job of doing that by pointing investor attention to other areas. Right? Don't look at these numbers. These numbers don't look good. So look at something else that can justify a higher valuation.
And Tesla's done a great job of that to be sure. So, with 50,000 fewer vehicles and 5,000 fewer higher priced vehicles, and on top of that, Tesla's been offering discounts and incentives. The total automotive revenue, which we shared earlier, it was down 8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. when the company reports its first quarter of 2025 numbers, it's likely to be even worse than it was in the previous quarter.
So that's the biggest part of its business and that's declining at an accelerating rate. So the second derivative is also increasing which is a double negative for Tesla stock investors. And since it's going to generate fewer automotive revenues, the operating margin is likely also to decline because Tesla's been making huge investments in its data centers with the GPUs trying to accelerate the development of driverless car technology.
And so those investments are likely to weigh down on the margins until at some point in the future if or when they develop that driverless car technology to the point where it's actually generating revenues and it's not just something to convince investors to pay a higher price for the stock. Eventually they need to demonstrate tangible results from that segment.
They can't keep telling the story to investors, telling them next year, next year, next year. At some point, investors are going to say, "Wait a minute. It's always next year, but it's never right now." And investors might lose patience and might say, "You know what? We've believed in this story for so long." Were we smart to believe in this story?
Was it a prudent move to believe in a story where the management team kept overpromising and underdeling? Maybe at some point Tesla stock investors will lose that extreme hope and enthusiasm they've held on to for so many years. So now let's look at manufacturing and where the business is exposed due to the tariffs.
Right? So thankfully Tesla does have strong manufacturing presence in the United States. In California they've got capacity for over 650,000 units. And the most popular units, the Model 3 and the Model Y, they can produce up to more than 550,000 units in its California facility according to the shareholder letter.
And I wouldn't be surprised if with a few tuneups they can expand that production capacity if needed. But they also have a strong presence outside of the United States, most notably in China, where the Model 3 and the Model Y are produced with over 950,000 unit capacity. And in Berlin, Germany at over 375,000 capacity.
And then in Texas, they also have more capacity to produce the Model Y and the Cybert truck, which they have over 125,000 unit capacity for the Cybert truck. Doesn't look like they're going to be needing that. They can cut that by 90%, I think, and that'll fill demand for the Cybert truck, which is off to a terrible start.
Although don't sleep on a potential lowerpriced Cybert truck which could actually accelerate demand for that disappointing development for Tesla. So the tariffs are not going to be good news for Tesla. It's not going to be good news for hardly any business. The direct impacts on the business shouldn't be too large.
the company has sufficient manufacturing capacity in the United States. Furthermore, demand for its vehicles are falling anyways. So, it's going to need fewer vehicles cuz it's not selling as many vehicles. And then those models that are produced outside the United States, it can try and sell those to countries outside the United States.
So it doesn't need to import into the United States any of the models made outside. So in that way the primary direct impact of tariffs could be somewhat diminished for Tesla even though battery production could be hurt even more than car production. But that's a smaller total average selling price component than the overall vehicle completely.
The bigger downside for Tesla is going to be the decline in economic activity. When people are losing their jobs, when people have to pay higher prices for everything else, there's going to be less disposable income available to buy electric vehicles. Also, the decrease in expected economic activity has created a big slowdown, a big decrease in oil prices.
And as you might already know, oil prices and EV sales are inversely related. When oil prices are falling, electric vehicles become even less attractive cuz now the savings over oil and fuel is that much lower. And when oil prices are going up, people get fed up and they want to switch to electric vehicles more so than otherwise.
So now let's look at valuation. Tesla has come back to earth here trading at a forward price to earnings of 69. At one moment it was trading at a forward price to earnings of over 150. This is around the time when I started talking about Tesla stock as a sell. I put Tesla stock as one of the five stocks you should avoid in 2025.
This is when the valuation was way up here. It was ridiculously overvalued. I also shorted Tesla stock at these levels and I already took the profits from those shorts a couple of weeks ago. At this valuation of a forward price to earnings of 69, it's still expensive. It's still trading at a super premium valuation, right?
Even if I compare it to AI stocks, and these are companies that are already generating AI revenues right now and have been generating for a couple of years, not companies that are saying next year, right? Like Tesla is next year is always next year, but that Tesla is trading at triple the valuation of Nvidia, of uh Alphabet.
It's trading at more than double the valuation of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple. It's already more expensive than these AI companies and it's not even an AI company yet. So, I don't think this is a buying opportunity for Tesla. I think this is a very dangerous time for Tesla stock investors. As that momentum, that enthusiasm is working itself out of the market.
Tesla is the most exposed to downside from the loss of enthusiasm, right? because the valuation is based on 90% enthusiasm and 10% actual tangible results. So I would caution investors if you already own Tesla stock to be careful. I don't think this is a buying opportunity at all for Tesla stock investors.
Hey everyone, we've got some exciting news to announce. We launched a private Discord exclusively your backstage pass to ask questions, share insights, and get direct access to me. Don't miss your chance. Limited spots available. So, join now.
Comments 0