저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
팔란티어는 관세발 매도장에서 하락 중이며, 본질적으로 시장 기대감(높은 밸류에이션)이 빠지는 과정이다. 내재가치 주당 $23.70 대비 현재가 $75는 약 3배 고평가이며, 선행 PER 106은 적정 수준(50~60)을 크게 상회한다. 정부 계약 축소와 상업 매출 지연 위험도 있어 매수 기회가 아니라고 판단한다.
다듬은 글
Even though Palunteer is not a company that's importing products from outside of the United States, the company's stock price is taking a hit during the tariff induced sell-off. Anyway, so I'm going to discuss why Palunteer stock is falling in this sell-off and also answer if Palunteer stock is a buying opportunity during this tariff induced sell-off.
, I first wanted to share with you my proprietary discounted cash flow model for Palunteer stock. And I've been sharing this with my viewers for a few months now. And I highlighted that Palunteer stock according to my calculations was overvalued and for investors not to buy Palunteer stock. I've been saying this for several months now.
Palanteer, the intrinsic value per share I calculated for Palanteer stock, and I updated it this morning is $23.70. The current market price is $75. That's even after the 9% decline today. It's down by over 9%. The stock price hit a 52 week high of $125. It was on an absolute tear. The stock price had soared especially after President Donald Trump won the election.
There was a lot of enthusiasm in the stock market and companies like Palanteer experienced a big increase in valuation as a result without without and this is the key sufficient increases in profits and cash flow to justify the increase in the valuation. That was a big key with Palanteer is that there was a lot of enthusiasm built into the valuation.
Now the forward price to earnings ratio jumped up over 150 closer to 200 and I started talking about during these times that the valuation was just too high. I talked about how Palunteer is an excellent business. It's opening up new opportunities which I'll also discuss a little bit later. It's doing a great job expanding into commercial enterprises, right?
It's always done a great job in its government business, but lately it's been doing really well in commercial business, which is a much bigger opportunity longer term. The balance sheet is absolutely pristine. Several billion dollar in cash, close to $5 billion in cash, and zero long-term debt. Billions of dollars in remaining performance obligations.
a asset light business model that has the potential to generate great profit margins as the scale increases. I could go on and on about how great the business is. It deserves a premium valuation. It it should be selling at a premium valuation. I just argued that the valuation closer to 150 or even at this point was overstretched was too much and that was a lot of enthusiasm that was being incorporated into the valuation.
The trouble with that is the current selloff is a moment where enthusiasm is leaving the market. people are becoming less optimistic about owning stocks overall. And so companies that have a valuation that's more dependent on enthusiasm on hope, they are more exposed to this selling than other companies.
So while Palanteer is not exposed to the tariffs directly in terms of it's not importing physical products from outside the United States. It's still exposed to this market downturn. It's always been exposed. In fact, for the past several months, that's why I've been warning investors not to buy Palunteer stock is because of this moment right now.
when or if and eventually this happens, right? Market sentiment goes positive and then it goes negative and then it goes positive and then it goes negative back and forth, back and forth for hundreds of years that we've had markets. That's consumer momentum. That's consumer enthusiasm. It goes back and forth.
It has gone back and forth for several hundred years. it'll probably continue going back and forth for several hundred years more. What you don't want to do is buy these businesses at the peak moments when enthusiasm is all the way up here, right? Which is where Palunteer was since November, between November and right now.
There was so much enthusiasm already built in and you were buying it at the very tippy top, right? which you see here with the forward price to earnings and you can look at the market price. You can look at any other valuation metric and you'll see similar stories. So now let's look at the actual business which is doing great.
It's a great business with excellent margins, great cash flow, expanding into new markets with large addressable market opportunities. Right? Management is forecasting that momentum will continue in 2025. But they made this forecast before these tariffs. And the government, the incoming administration has done a lot of cost cutting in government contracts.
That's where Palanteer receives a lot of revenue. Also, Palanteer its expansion into US commercial revenue. You could see here for the full year 2025 they're forecasting $1.1 billion in US commercial revenue. That would be growth of at least 54%. So they're expecting robust growth in this category or they were.
Now with the tariffs and the decline in economic activity as a result, there's already been trillions of dollars of wealth that's been wiped out from investors bank accounts. Right? Net wealth, net worth has declined by several trillion dollars just in the last two days. And that's going to reverberate throughout the economy.
When people are feeling less wealthy, they're not going to spend as much money. If they're not spending as much money, the customers of Palunteer, which are large enterprises, are going to feel these lower spending levels and they're going to cut spending wherever they can. Palanteer could be one of the businesses that gets indirectly impacted from the decline in economic activity.
So Palanteer negatively impacted in two ways. Number one, the stock price had incorporated so much enthusiasm with nosebleleed valuations that's draining out of the system as momentum and enthusiasm is leaving the stock market. And then secondly, Palanteer could be impacted indirectly as some of its government revenue can be cancelled or paused or slowed out or future government contracts not signed as in as high a levels as they've been able to do.
And then commercial revenue could be paused, canled, delayed or new contracts could fail to materialize which will hurt the business as well. So those are the reasons and how Palanteer is impacted and why Palanteer stock price is falling. Now to answer the question, do I think this is a buying opportunity?
No, I don't think so. I don't think it's even close. Uh Palunteer at the current market price of $75 is nearly three times my intrinsic value per share calculation. And then looking at the forward price to earnings at 106 seems very expensive to me and it has felt expensive for several months now. These levels were the historical norms for Palunteer stock.
A forward price to earnings of about 50 seemed like a good value for Palunteer stock. And let's say the business improved last year. I'll give you that. I agree with that. So instead of a forward price to earnings of 50, I would be willing to pay a forward price to earnings of around 55 or even 60 for Palenteer stock.
But again, it's nowhere near those levels. So I don't even have that choice. It's trading at a forward price to earnings of nearly double what I would feel comfortable paying. So for me, Palanteer stock is too expensive. It's still too expensive and is especially exposed to a big sell-off as a result of the decline in enthusiasm from to our channel members at the VIP Discord tier.
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