저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가($245)는 여전히 고평가로 보지만(DCF 적정가 $93), 밸류에이션 대비 숏 확신이 낮아 숏 포지션을 청산했다. 자율주행 현금흐름 기대로 2035년 FCF 93억 달러 가정, 장기성장률 7%를 적용. 저가 모델 발표와 자율주행 테스트 등 단기 촉매와 개인투자자 매수세를 근거로 지금은 숏을 권하지 않음. 포워드 PER 68배 등 주요 빅테크 대비 2배 이상 비싸다고 지적.
다듬은 글
I wouldn't be shorting Tesla's stock here at $245 a share and I'm going to talk about why that's the case now if you remember I did short Tesla stock when it was over $420 a share but I closed out those shorts uh a little while ago when the share price initially fell to around $240 a share and at these valuations while I do believe Tesla stock is still overvalued I don't think it's overvalued enough to take a chance in shorting the stock because shorting a stock is riskier than going long in investment and the conviction on the overvaluation I think has to be really high to shorten an investment and my conviction is not as high as it was or as it would be if Tesla stock was over 400 $420 a share let me share with you some details Tesla stock has the fair value the intrinsic value per share at $93 $93 is what I feel is a fair price for Tesla stock now my assumptions are that it's free cash flow grow by nearly 20x between 2025 and 2035 all right so I'm forecasting that it's free cash flow will grow from 5 billion in 2025 to 93 billion in 2035 so yeah I am forecasting a great deal of growth for Tesla between now and 2035 and most of that growth I'm incorporating is the probability that it will have driverless cars on the road and the free cash flow that those driverless cars will generate that's the primary reason why I'm forecasting a 20x increase in its free cash flow this free cash flow increase I'm not forecasting it on the basis of its growth in electric vehicles I think Tesla I'm actually forecasting Tesla will continue losing market share in the electric vehicle industry because new competitors are coming in and they're coming in at certain times with lower priced models and I don't think Tesla's going to be able to deliver a lower priced model that can compete with those others and so I think it'll continue losing market share in electric vehicles but I do think that it will eventually develop driverless car technology one way or the other whether it continues on this path of camera only or whether it adopts the lidar and radar technology whatever the case might be I think eventually it will develop driverless cars and they will be on the road and they will generate revenue and cash flow for the company so that's part of the reason why I'm forecasting a big increase in free cash flow from 5 billion to 93 billion in 2035 and then from that point on I am forecasting a very longr run growth rate of 7% for Tesla stock that's higher than any other company I've evaluated 7% very long run terminal growth rate for Tesla right and that's accounting for the Innovative nature of this company after driverless car technology it'll likely start working on robotics which may or may not come to fruition or it might be developing something else the company does have a uh focus on Innovation right now as the management team realizes that electric vehicles are not going to fuel this company's growth right the management team is smart in knowing what's going to drive value for shareholders and they understand that electric vehicles are not going to drive value for shareholders right that ship has sailed that was the thing that was popular that was the thing that was driving valuation maybe 10 years ago maybe eight years ago but now that competition has entered the fry and we've seen consumer demand reach a limit where people are saying well this technology doesn't really make sense for everyone it only makes sense for a certain group of people and so it's not going to uh be adopted as quickly as was initially forecasted so even with those robust expectations of free cash flow growing from 5 billion to 93 billion and the longer term growth rate at 7% my intrinsic value per share for Tesla is still $93 right so even like if we just play a game of scenario analysis here and I change my long-term growth rate from 7% to 10% that increases the intrinsic value to $116 I would have to increase that long-term growth rate to a very high number let's say 15% for the intrinsic value per share to be above the market price and I don't think any company can grow in the very long run at 15% per year into the you know this is this long run growth rate is like into Infinity right very most companies I forecast this long run growth rate is between three and 5% but I'm giving Tesla the benefit of the doubt here because it's so Innovative of giving them a 7% longer term growth rate and a 20x increase in free cash flow even still the valuation looks overvalued now if I measure Tesla stock on a forward price to earnings and I compare it to other large cap tech companies other AI companies Tesla is at least more than two times as expensive on a forward price to earnings basis Tesla is trading at 68 the next highest is Microsoft and Amazon at 25 nvidia's at 20 and alphabet is at 16 so more than 2x as expensive when I look at the price to free cash flow Tesla's at 241 the next highest is Amazon at 63 so Tesla's at least four times as expensive as other tech companies on this metric when I look at the trailing 12-month price to earnings ratio Tesla is more than three times as expensive as these other large cap tech companies Tesla at 121 the next highest Nvidia at 40 so regardless of the valuation metric I look at Tesla stock looks overvalued but I don't think it's over valued enough to go short and there are a couple of catalyst coming up that could create this more enthusiasm this more momentum for Tesla stock in the near term two specifically number one the announcement of a lower priced model even though it's not going to be what Tesla promised right for several years Tesla promised investors a $225,000 model I don't think they're going to approach that cost but they are likely to announce a lower priced model in the next couple of months and that could create more enthusiasm from stock market investors remember this stock is about enthusiasm and momentum it's not about actual results because if you look at actual results and actual cash flow it's significantly overvalued but announcements tend to send this stock higher as investors get excited and they start buying up shares and then you have the upcoming start of testing of driverless cars Tesla just got the permit for testing driverless cars in California and then around June they could start testing driverless cars in Texas so once those announcements start to come out even though those are not likely to create any near-term uh cash flow for the company or increase the probability of generating uh this technology which will generate cash in the future it could be Catalyst that send the stock price higher so it's another reason not to short the stock at these valuations and then there was another report this morning out from JP Morgan saying that retail investors are buying up Tesla stock at record numbers right which signals that retail investors are still enthralled with Tesla stock they still love Tesla stock they still think very highly of the company's future and while institutional investors while the smart money might be leaving Tesla stock which is causing the stock price drop retail investors are still excited about Tesla's long-term forecast and long-term projections so for all those reasons uh even though I still think Tesla stock is overvalued I would not be shorting Tesla's stock at these valuation
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