Should Investors Buy Micron Stock Right Now? MU Stock Analysis | Micron Earnings Review

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마이크론 실적이 AI 데이터센터 매출 3배 성장과 매출 85.3억달러(전년 대비 증가), 영업이익률 22%로 회복세를 보였다. 다만 설비투자(CAPEX)가 영업현금흐름을 상회해 투자자 우려가 있으나 재무구조는 탄탄하다. 내재가치 주당 139달러 대비 현재가 103달러로 저평가, 선행 PER 9.4배로 여전히 매수 의견을 유지한다.

다듬은 글

※ AI가 다듬은 글(오탈자·군말 정리)

01. Thursday, March 20, 2025, after the US stock market closed, Micron Technology reported its quarterly financial results, and investors were pleased, if only slightly. The stock rose over 2% in after-hours trading following the announcement. I reviewed the earnings and was also relatively pleased. I have recommended Micron as a buy for over a year now, and I was happy to see the company deliver solid results. In this video I'll go through those figures, update my recommendation, and tell you whether I still think it's a buy after these results or whether I need to change my view.

02. Micron's CEO said they delivered fiscal second-quarter EPS above guidance, which is good. Data center revenue tripled from a year ago, and that segment, which sells products into AI-optimized data centers, generated record revenue. That is thriving, and it's likely to continue given how much spending is expected to go into AI data centers.

03. Management also said they expect record quarterly revenue in the upcoming quarter, driven by DRAM and NAND demand growth. DRAM is memory and NAND is storage, used in both electronic devices and AI data centers. They expect demand growth in their data center segments and in their consumer-oriented segments, which had been the slower part of the business, to rebound. They also said they're on track for record revenue and significantly improved profitability in fiscal 2025. As an investor, these are exactly the kinds of statements you want to hear from management: record growth, soaring demand, and much better profitability.

04. Revenue for fiscal Q2 2025 was $8.53 billion, well above the $5.824 billion reported in the same quarter last year. Operating income jumped to $1.773 billion from $191 million a year earlier, and the operating margin rose to 22% from 3.3%. Micron went through a cyclical downturn last year, and this year's fiscal 2025 shows a strong recovery, with further improvement forecast ahead.

05. For the quarter, capital expenditures were $3.09 billion and adjusted free cash flow came in at $857 million.

06. This is the one area spooking investors. Over the last six months, Micron has spent more on property and equipment purchases than it generated in cash flow from operations. When a company spends this aggressively on capex, investors get nervous. You don't have to look far: Intel, which also has manufacturing and design in-house, has spent heavily, and that spending has so far been ineffective, which is a big part of what's hurting the company. Investors worry Micron's capex could turn out the same way.

07. The expected value of these investments is positive, otherwise management wouldn't make them. But there's wide dispersion in the possible outcomes, and the downside could be very negative. That uncertainty is what has investors on guard.

08. Still, the balance sheet is strong. Micron ended the quarter with $9.6 billion in cash and marketable investments, and it is not spending more than it generates in operating cash flow overall. It is being prudent. Intel, by contrast, went well beyond its operating cash flow on capex, which forced it into a difficult position where it had to pause its dividend.

09. Micron forecasts $8.8 billion in revenue for the coming quarter, a sequential increase from the $8 billion generated last quarter. It expects a gross margin of 35.5%, a slight sequential decline from 36.8% in the current quarter.

10. Over the six months ended February 27, 2025, Micron generated $7.186 billion in operating cash flow and spent $7.261 billion on property, plant, and equipment, slightly more than it brought in. That explains why the stock hasn't performed as well as the improvements in revenue, profit, and cash flow would suggest. The risk around these large capital investments is what's holding the stock back.

11. I think the probability that these investments pay off is more favorable than not, which is why I've been more bullish than most on Micron.

12. My intrinsic value estimate for Micron is $139 per share. I plan to update it in the next week or two as I digest the earnings release, the conference call transcript, and the new information, and then update my discounted cash flow model. Even at $139, I still see the stock trading well below fair value, and I see significant upside from my DCF perspective. On a forward price-to-earnings basis, it trades at about 9.4 times forward earnings, which I also consider significantly undervalued.

13. I still think Micron is a buy, and I'm maintaining that recommendation as of March 20, 2025.